By The Numbers: Iowa

According to the NCAA statistics, here are how PSU and Iowa stack up:

NCAA Stats Comparison
Category:	Penn St.	Iowa
Rushing	75	70
Passing Offense	25	55
Total Offense	46	68
Scoring Offense	48	70
Rushing Defense	4	68
Turnovers Gained	82	14
Passes Had Intercepted	60	60
Pass Defense	29	25
Net Punting	42	4
Punt Returns	103	79
Kickoff Returns	118	109
Turnover Margin	89	20
Fumbles Recovered	89	61
Passes Intercepted	39	8
Fumbles Lost	62	30
Turnovers Lost	64	49
Passing Efficiency	30	64
Pass Efficiency Defense	34	11
Total Defense	7	36
Scoring Defense	2	15
Fewest Penalties Per Game	6	16
Fewest Yards Penalized Per Game	5	9
Punt Return Yardage Defense	68	16
Kickoff Return Yardage Defense	106	51
Offense Third-down Efficiency	8	24
Offense Fourth-down Efficiency	53	99
Defense Third-down Efficiency	25	36
Defense Fourth-down Efficiency	16	80
Tackles for Loss	4	96
Offense Tackles for Loss	32	42
Pass Sacks	11	76
Pass Sacks Allowed	55	93
Time of Possession	22	11
First Downs	21	43
First Downs Allowed	4	18
Red Zone Efficiency	101	21
Red Zone Efficiency - Defense	2	101
Average NCAA Rank:	42.89	47.24
Weighted Avg. Rank:	35.92	42.17

Statistically speaking, this game is much closer than last year--and we all know how that turned out.

So far, Iowa has beaten Northern Iowa 17-16, blocking TWO field goals to preserve the win. They defeated Iowa State handily, and Arizona 27-24. No common opponents.

I don't know if it is safe to say that our opponents so far are better than UNI, which is a FCS team, but they are certainly probably close ot a Temple or an Akron. I really was impressed by how much Syracuse improved--they beat Northwestern this past weekend, but are probably not on par with Arizona, but perhaps closer than we might think.

The home field advantage is certainly in favor of the Lions.

What surprised me the most about Iowa's numbers was the defense--I thought they would be better than that, given two cupcake games and one mediocre Arizona team. And while the Lions are 4th in the nation in tackles for loss, Iowa is 96th.

It would appear that Iowa has an advantage in special teams, leading most if not all punting and kicking categories both offensively and defensively. Also of concern: Iowa leads the turnover categories.

If PSU limits turnovers and mistakes on special teams, this game should not be particularly close. I still stand by my assumption that we have not seen a fraction of the HD offense so far this year, and I think the O-line will continue to improve and the team as a whole will be emotionally up for this match-up. That is not to say that the Hawks aren't going to be pumped, aren't going to bring their A-game, or even be intimidated by the atmosphere. I just think if both teams play to their potential, PSU will win.

And I would not be surprised if the score isn't reminiscent of Minnesota 2005, when PSU pasted the Gophers 44-14 despite a sloppy start to the season marked by turnovers. Everyone was worried about containing Minnesota's running game--and we all worried about nothing.