Showing posts with label Central Florida. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Central Florida. Show all posts

Monday, September 1, 2014

Shoop! There It Is!

Having been blogging about Penn State football since the mid 1990's, you'd think I would finally be able to post a game recap without forgetting something.  As if!

But while thinking back over the game notes, I realized I hadn't mentioned how great a job Bob Shoop did as defensive coordinator.  The second half was tarnished a bit by the performance of Holman at QB, but then those things happen.  When you prepare for one type of QB, and then suddenly face another, it's not always easy to adjust for that.  And Holman certainly looked like a better passer.


So here are some more thoughts that I forgot to hit yesterday:

* Zettle is a FORCE.

* Penn State played the 1st quarter with no headset communication.  Maybe that contributed to the disparity between the stats and the points.  Apparently, the NCAA doesn't have rules like the NFL, which would have equalized the situation by not allowing UCF to use their headsets.  Despite the set back, we prevailed.

* Penn State had TWO receivers over 150 yards on the day.  That's the first time in school history!

* Ficken Kickin Good--we all know he hit the game winner, but he was 4-4 on the day!

* Forgot to mention the parachutists--the PSU guy hit the stadium, but the UCF rep landed along some train tracks off the mark!  Talk about your omens from the sky!

* Did anyone notice how well we did on first downs?  I meant to look back on this but forgot.  Especially in the first half, we kicked butt on first down, leaving a LOT of 2nd and short situations.  If you look at the second down situations in the first half, Penn State had 5 second and one's, 2 second and two's, and was second and six or less 11 out of 14 second downs.  (One second and six was actually a second and one that became a second and six after a five yard penalty.)  In the second half, there were 11 second down opportunities, and PSU was 2nd and five or less 5 of those times with three second and one's.

* The running game didn't generate much yardage, but as you can see above, it didn't have to in order to keep the sticks moving.

* Hamilton and Ficken pulled in Big Ten Players of the Week Honors--not something I forgot, but worth noting at this juncture.

Some great articles were written across the pond.  Johnny Watterson of The Irish Times writes:
But first the cast and inventory: two parachutists, one on the pitch the other on the railway track; a choir of 17; two three-storey sized flags; two marching bands; three Irish Army soldiers and four marines, all bearing flags; a team of Penn State dancers and two teams of cheerleaders; soft drinks engineers; chair arranging executives; four lieutenants of the tape measure; two team rosters of 100 players each; eight team captains; 24-ish coaches and two F16s drowning out the Star Spangled Banner. Gridiron loves its hardware.   
But Penn State had a quarterback called Christian Hackenberg. “Hack”, a young man in just his second season, threw for 454 yards on Saturday, breaking Zack Mills’s single-game school record of 399 yards. 
The most important of those yards came in the run-up to Ficken’s winning field goal as “Hack”, with composure beyond his years, engineered the territory and kept the ball in Penn [State] hands.  
As it sailed over the posts at the Hill end on a trajectory towards Nally, Croke Park became the Bull Run in Pamp lona. The Penn State bench burst on to the pitch and cheerleaders were thrown in the air.
Aisling Crowe describes it as theater and sport colliding:
It was a jaw dropping, awe inspiring sight when first glimpsing the transformed interior of the stadium before the University of Central Florida clashed with the Penn State University. It was Croke Park but not as we know it. The surreal panorama spread out before your eyes. A shrunken pitch surrounded by athletic cheerleaders, acrobatically somersaulting into dangerous positions, marching bands putting a brass spin on some classics including the theme tune to The Sunday Game and flagbearers, mascots and whatever else was needed in the way of support.
The truly awesome scene was in the middle of the pitch where 200 athletes prepared to begin their college season, hopes and dreams spread out before them and the glory of last season behind champions University of Central Florida. 
The clock counted down the minutes to kick off, and a parachutist clad in the Penn State blue and white landed in the middle of the pitch. The UCF Knights parachutist went missing in action, his radar slightly wonky. He came up a little short of the pitch and landed on the train line behind Hill 16. Saturday afternoon shoppers suffered the convenience that shadows the commuter daily as trains were delayed while the errant knight was rescued.  
The NFL may be America's game but the college version is giving it a run for its money.
This may have been a spectacle but it was also a serious sport. Every tackle, every intercept, every pass that found a runner was greeted with a roar the like of which is usually only heard when the referee blows the final whistle in an All-Ireland final. 
Anyone with dismissive attitudes towards American football would have had their prejudices seriously challenged by the on-pitch action. The first collision from the opening kick off saw the helmet of one of the Nittany Lions fly through the air, knocked from a head with the force of the impact. 
They followed Flynn's advice to the letter in Croke Park with razzle dazzle to beat Banagher but the sequins were not some frippery tacked on as a distraction. Sport and theatre collide with spectacular results in American football. The sparkle and the show are an integral part of the spectacle but there is real steel behind the stardust that was sprinkled on Dublin yesterday. 

The author had Sam Franklin kicking the winning field goal, but otherwise it was a good report.

And if you are really bored, here is an Irish message board with some locals regaling their thoughts such as these:
That's was a great game! My first time ever seeing live football, only got sucked in in the last few years. Now I reeeeeally want to see if I can get tickets to one of the Wembley games! The Penn State support was great, really cool to be in the thick of it. 
Fantastic game. Made a converted out of my brother who begrudgingly came along, moaning right up to the start about how ****e AF is. He was screaming at the pitch at the end and has just called me to find out when the next one is.. 
The Penn State head coach stayed for a little while by the tunnel to start up chants with the fans as he left the field, crazy guy  [He's a WILD and CRAZY guy!]
Just home from a thoroughly enjoyable day. Went with Penn State in all our bets, all came in, Outright win, 1st Touchdown and over 43.5. Some show, great entertainment and at least the rain stayed off. Managed to get a vid of the National anthem and the F-16's too. 
Fecking savage day. 8th game I've been to (3 college, 5 NFL) and first I've seen settled by the final play. Had the over backed too so happy out. Pity it wasn't in the Aviva, looked silly looking down on an empty hill all day, mind you, the ESPN crew did a great job of avoiding that. Jesse James is a legend, plus that WR, thing he was number 7 for Penn. Great day out. Penn state fans were a credit. Really, really great day. 
Apart from the empty stand and rip off programme, great day. Sat with some Penn State fans amongst the UCF hoarde in a great spot. Wife very pregnant and we had planned to ship a few mins before the end. Glad I didn't, what a finish! Super atmosphere, some slick game play from QB#14 and WR#7 for Penn. The Wife got right into it too but was puzzled why the game, apart from stoppages, just seem to pause quite often? When I told her it was for commercial breaks she cracked up 😁 The noise was cool, the F16s very cool, mexican wave fun and I cannot wait for the NFL reg season to K.O!!! 
Really enjoyed that yesterday. Penn State fans were great even if I was cheering for UCF. Great second half of football. Not sure what it looked like on TV but looking around, it felt quite cavernous. My mate was more interested in the gargle but I really got into it.  [Gotta love the gargle!]
Great day out - great game. First time to go to a game "in the flesh" - absolutely loved it. First two qrts I thought Penn State were gonna walk away it (despite only leading by a single score). UCF's rushing game was poor and the passing game was non-existant - only for their defence , they would have been buried. 3rd & 4th Qrt's - UCF's Qrtback remembered he could throw and the drama went up a notch. To have the game decided on the final play with 3 secs left on the clock - just brilliant (even if I was a tiny bit gutted for UCF).   Will definitely go to the next one (if/when it happens). 
Good day. One of the closest games I've seen live, score wise. Atmosphere was okay were I was sitting . Wish I had a chance to do this every week. 
Great game. Really enjoyed it, and was a bargain for e20. My seats were great. Very happy that it was close, as it was a good way to show my friends from here the sport. A blowout would have sucked. . . .A few small things about it did bother me though. The quality of the replays was shocking. I remember a big important offensive PI call happened, and I looked up to see the replay of it, but all they showed was the QB throwing the ball... Hill 16 being closed was also odd and looked awful behind the goal. That last field goal was one of the most exciting finishes to a game this weekend, and will have been all over sports highlight reels in the states last night, and the backdrop is an awful, empty terrace, which is a little embarrassing. The PA system was also terrible, especially for the ref. Could barely make out what was being said half the time. [Sounds like a "true" PSU fan--c/o replays, empty seats and the sound system!]
I have yet to read any reports of "bad" PSU fans.  And the reports from Penn Stater's sound like they were treated exceptionally well by the locals.

Sunday, August 31, 2014

Old, New, Borrowed, and Blue

The Old.


The more things change, the more they seem to stay the same.  I saw several pundits predicting a close game between PSU and UCF--even going so far as to say the difference could come down to a field goal.  Freaking psychotics psychics!

My first thought--God I hope it doesn't come down to a Sam Ficken field goal.

I know it was James Franklin on the sideline, but seeing what happened on the field--a clearly better team missing and wasting opportunities, letting an under-matched opponent hang around to take advantage of mistakes and penalties, and then depending on a last second field goal to pull out a win in a game that you led for all but 1:13 on the clock--made me think JOE PATERNO.  Somewhere, he is smiling at the old school outcome of this Croke Park Classic.

I know it gets old--Penn State fans bitching about the refs and bad calls, but for the love of God, can you stop giving us so much fodder to chew on????  And the worst part?  This wasn't even a crew of inept Big Ten refs.  Offensive PI?  Give me a break.  You know it's bad when even the inept and anti-PSU biased announcers don't think there was a penalty.  Granted, the roughing the kicker penalty was probably a gift for PSU, but YOU KNOW that call goes either way, and I personally think it was a make-up call for the unsportsmanlike conduct on the kick-off.  Yeah, mouthing off after your helmet was torn off was definitely in poor taste and a bad decision, but a 15-yarder?  How about a warning, officer?

"That ain't holdin.  I just giving you a big ole hug.  I love you man!"


The New.

James Franklin's debut was not illustrious or overly impressive, but we must temper our criticism against the back-drop.  It was the first game of the season.  Mistakes will be made.  He seemed to mismanage the time clock at the ends of both halves, but the final result was still a win.  And while the gaffe at the end of the first half didn't cost us any points, you would like to believe that had we been playing Ohio State or Michigan State, that he would have chosen to punt.  But given that UCF was offensively inept (at that point), and he had a chance to put some more points on the board, I don't know that his decision was actually a bad one.  Could have been.  Wasn't in the final analysis.

None of Franklin's bad choices were as bad as O'Leary's decision to start de novo with DiNovo at quarterback.  Thank God for that!  It was a tale of two different halves, as Holman came in and almost stole this game away from Christian Hackenberg.

Speaking of Hack, he notched a new PSU record with 454 yards, going 32 for 47 on the day.  Part of this was due to the lack of a running game.  But defense was supposed to be a strength of this UCF team, with most of the D back from last year and almost the entire secondary intact.  Our offensive line looked shaky in the early going, but seemed to get better as the game progressed.  Hack was a little gimpy late in the game, and hopefully those are just minor growing pains.

We seemed to have some trouble maintaining footing.  I blame this on Spider retiring.  Not sure who replaced him, but that dude has some work cut out for him.

The Lions won the Dan Rooney Trophy . . . a new piece of hardware to add to our collection, and much nicer than the hideous Land Grant Monstrosity that will up for grabs at the end of the season.



The Borrowed.

Thank you Dublin for allowing us to desecrate your hallowed "football" sod with our American form of soccer.  I liked the use of pitchforks to replace our divots.

The Blue.

Although they sported the away game white unis, the BLUE and WHITE prevailed in a 26-24 thriller that was much closer than it should have been.  Penn State really dominated the first half, but had only a 7 point lead to show for it.  Poor refereeing, players tripping on divots, and turnovers seemed to keep the knights in the game.  Holman sparked their offense in the second half, and that may also hint to the lack of depth we have due to sanctions.  This game could have been a disaster had we played in the heat and humidity of Orlando.

James Franklin sported a blue ball cap on and off, early in the game.  I've never seen a picture of him wearing a hat on the sidelines, but come November, he may need that.

The PSU website has this quote:
"There was only a minute or so left in the game, and I looked across the sideline and there wasn't doubt in anybody's eye. Everybody believed. They believed in Hack. They believed in Ficken," Franklin said.
I have to admit I teared up when he kicked that final field goal.  Way to go, Sam!

BY THE NUMBERS:

  Team Statistics  

 Team Totals  PSU  UCF 
FIRST DOWNS  24  11 
   Rushing 
   Passing  14 
   Penalty 
NET YARDS RUSHING  57  24 
   Rushing Attempts  28  29 
   Average Per Rush  2.0  0.8 
   Rushing Touchdowns 
   Yards Gained Rushing  86  51 
   Yards Lost Rushing  29  27 
NET YARDS PASSING  454  222 
   Completions-Attempts-Int  32-47-2  12-22-0 
   Average Per Attempt  9.7  10.1 
   Average Per Completion  14.2  18.5 
   Passing Touchdowns 
TOTAL OFFENSE YARDS  511  246 
   Total offense plays  75  51 
   Average Gain Per Play  6.8  4.8 
Fumbles: Number-Lost  1-1  1-1 
Penalties: Number-Yards  9-90  8-47 
PUNTS-YARDS  1-41  4-185 
   Average Yards Per Punt  41.0  46.2 
   Net Yards Per Punt  21.0  44.0 
   Inside 20 
   50+ Yards 
   Touchbacks 
   Fair catch 
KICKOFFS-YARDS  6-366  5-306 
   Average Yards Per Kickoff  61.0  61.2 
   Net Yards Per Kickoff  33.2  35.4 
   Touchbacks 
Punt returns: Number-Yards-TD  2-9-0  0-0-0 
   Average Per Return  4.5  0.0 
Kickoff returns: Number-Yds-TD  5-129-0  5-142-0 
   Average Per Return  25.8  28.4 
Interceptions: Number-Yds-TD  0-0-0  2-0-0 
Fumble Returns: Number-Yds-TD  0-0-0  0-0-0 
Miscellaneous Yards 
Possession Time  34:07  25:53 
   1st Quarter  9:49  5:11 
   2nd Quarter  8:02  6:58 
   3rd Quarter  8:04  6:56 
   4th Quarter  8:12  6:48 
Third-Down Conversions  10 of 18  5 of 13 
Fourth-Down Conversions  1 of 2  1 of 2 
Red-Zone Scores-Chances  5-5  4-5 
   Touchdowns  1-5  3-5 
   Field goals  4-5  1-5 
Sacks By: Number-Yards  2-17  2-17 
PAT Kicks  2-2  3-3 
Field Goals  4-4  1-1 
Points off turnovers  9 

As you can see, PSU clearly dominated the stats, more than doubling the total yardage of the Knights, winning time of possession by 9 minutes, and better third down conversion percentages.  What kept the Knights in the game was the 9 points off turnovers, and the two INTs.  Both teams exchanged fumbles.

Neither team did well in the first half, and the Knights had under 100 yards total in the first half, with most of their production and points coming after the switch to Holman.

INTANGIBLES:

The crowd of 53,304 was heavily in favor of the Nittany Lions--I heard by as much as 7-1 or more.

James Franklin is 1-0 as coach at Penn State, 25-15 overall.

Penn State won the toss and deferred.

"I'm not so fast, you know!"


THE BIG (TEN) PICTURE:

Rutgers came from behind to defeat Washington State 41-38.

Indiana defeated Indiana State 28-10.

Purdue overwhelmed Western Michigan 43-34.

THEM managed to win and avoid pulling a second Appalachian State, defeating the Mountaineers 52-14.  So take that!

The Buckeyes were down to the midshipmen 7-6 at the half, but managed to pull away with a 34-17 win.

Illinois beat Youngstown State 28-17.

The Hawkeyes beat Northern Hawkeyes 31-23.

The Maryland Twerps dominated James Madison (and a couple of other old presidents) 52-7.

Meanwhile the Cornhuskers stormed the beaches of Florida Atlantic 55-7.

The Spartans spanked Jacksonville State 45-7.

Minnesota beat Eastern Illinois 42-20.

The Wildcats lost to Cal 31-24.

Wisconsin, not wanting Northwestern to be the only loser, fell apart against LSU, losing 28-24 after a 17 point rally by the Tigers.

SHEDDING TEARS:

1.  South Carolina--#9 taken to the woodshed by the Texas Aggies, even without Johnny Football.
2.  Delaware--lost to Pitt 62-0.  Maybe Pitt can schedule Rhode Island and Alaska too!
3.  Vanderbilt--lost 37-7 to Temple.  I do feel bad.  Just not THAT bad.
4.  Clemson--bitten by the Bulldogs 45-21.
5.  Okie State--Cowpokes come up 6 short against #1 F$U.

LOOKING AHEAD:

The Akron Zips come to Beaver Stadium next week for a NOON kick-off.  The Zips pasted Howard 41-0 this past weekend.

The Lions opened around an 18 point favorite but that line has already dropped a few points depending on which betting service you look at, but I imagine will stay somewhere just north of a two score margin.

The Zips were ranked preseason by USA Today at #94.

Did you know that Terry Bowden is their coach?  I did not know that!  Unfortunately for him, he ain't in Auburn anymore.

This should be another good day for Hack, and perhaps a chance for his back-up to get some reps.

GO STATE!  BEAT ZIPS!

Friday, August 29, 2014

Dublin or Nothing

With the college football season already started, and Penn State's first game of the James Franklin Era literally hours away from kick-off, I realized that I have not officially prognosticated in public.

My emotions swing from 5-7 to 11-1.  There was that one moment when I toyed with the idea of predicting a 12-0 season (which flashed through my mind when I read that Braxton Miller was out for the season), but I am officially going to settle on 10-2.

Don't ask me why.  Don't ask me which two games I think we will lose.

There is no more merit in my forecast than any weatherman out there right now.

But with kick-off nearing in Dublin at Croke Park, I will predict a victory for the blue and white over George O'Leary's Golden Knights.

And here are my reasons, in no particular order.

1.  Lee Corso picked UCF to wax Penn State.
2.  No Bortles.
3.  James Franklin.
4.  Christian Hackenberg.
5.  Come on people, it's UCF.  Sure they went 12-1 last season, but this ain't Florida State.  I think people are underestimating how important Bortles was to the offense, and are over-estimating what kind of defense the Knights will have this year.
6.  James Franklin
7.  Clucko the Chicken picks Penn State.
8.  Five of six Harrisburg writers pick UCF
9.  James Franklin  Seriously.  This man is a dynamo.  And he brings with him a complete staff that he has already worked with and developed chemistry with.  THIS IS CRUCIAL.  This is not Bill O'Brien parachuting into a war zone with a rag tag team of old friends assembled at the last minute.  This is a well oiled machine that managed to post back to back 9 win seasons at Vanderbilt, a school that had not had a 9 win season since 1915.
10. George O'Leary, undefeated ND head coach, who will be toasted to no end at every pub in the country and pickled in free drinks by the time kick-off rolls around.
11.  Because WE ARE . . .

PENN STATE!


Sunday, September 15, 2013

UCF: Ultimate Cage Football

It was the Ultimate Cage Fight between two unbeatens.  And for three hours, it was a back and forth offensive slug fest.  The Knights jumped out to the early lead, but the Lions roared back to even the score.  But for the third straight week of the season, the Nittany Lion offense just couldn't keep focus in the first half, and they fell behind 21-7 before the half time bell rang and the scoreboard showed a 21-10 advantage to the visiting Knights of Orlando.

Penn State squandered a great opportunity to build momentum going into the second half, when Malcolm Willis intercepted a Bortles pass and gave PSU possession of the ball on their own 21 yard line.  Unfortunately, there was only 1:17 on the clock, but a field goal here, and knowing the Lions would have the ball first in the second half, Penn State could cut the lead to a score or even take the lead on these two possessions.

But on a second down play, Hackenberg took an ill-advised sack instead of getting rid of the ball.  (Insert your comment about freshman mistakes here, but even their senior signal caller threw a pass away late when he should have kept the clock rolling, so those things happen.) The clock kept winding down, and without any time outs, Penn State had to spike the ball, leaving fourth and two and a 59 yard field goal attempt.  Ficken did his best, but came up short.  Had Penn State been able to actually run a play on third down instead of spiking the ball, everything might have been different.  On the other hand, we might have fumbled, lost yards, or thrown an INT.  But just another 5 or 6 yards would have kept Ficken perfect on the year, and Penn State down by 8 at the half.

Woulda, coulda, shoulda. 

Penn State never stopped fighting back, and despite giving up 507 yards to the Golden Knights, they were down only ten in the fourth quarter when Zach Zwinak had the ball stripped and lost the only fumble of the day.  Not to make the young man feels worse than he already does, but the turn over was critical.  There was 5:43 left on the clock, and PSU had driven the ball inside the UCF thirty.

And the Nittany Lion defense rose to the occasion for the second time that day, forcing a punt that went awry for the Knights and should have sealed their doom.  The snap sailed over the punters head toward the end zone, but he managed to scramble away and boot a short shank out of bounds. 

Penn State finally capitalized on the misplay with a TD that pulled them within a field goal.  O'Brien opted to pooch kick or some such strategy, eschewing the on-sides kick with only 2:51 left on the clock.  But the kick rolled the whole way to the end zone and was downed for a touchback.  With only one time out left, Penn State had to keep the Knights from a first down.

And they failed.  Bout over.  Win to UCF.

BY THE NUMBERS:

From GoPSUsports:


UCF PSU
FIRST DOWNS...................20 24
RUSHES-YARDS (NET)............38-219 35-193
PASSING YDS (NET).............288 262
Passes Att-Comp-Int...........27-20-1 29-21-0
TOTAL OFFENSE PLAYS-YARDS.....65-507 64-455
Fumble Returns-Yards..........0-0 0-0
Punt Returns-Yards............0-0 1-15
Kickoff Returns-Yards.........5-115 7-162
Interception Returns-Yards....0-0 1-0
Punts (Number-Avg)............2-17.0 2-34.5
Fumbles-Lost..................1-0 1-1
Penalties-Yards...............6-62 5-33
Possession Time...............32:37 27:23
Third-Down Conversions........7 of 12 2 of 8
Fourth-Down Conversions.......0 of 1 1 of 2
Red-Zone Scores-Chances.......4-4 4-4
Sacks By: Number-Yards........1-10 0-0

Penn State doubled the number of third down conversions on the season, going 2 for 8.  UCF won time of possession, largely on the fact that they kept the chains moving on third down by converting 7 of 12.

Otherwise, the stats are pretty similar.  They outgained us, but not by an insurmountable amount.  Both teams had a turn over. 

Perhaps the key stat of the game is NO SACKS by the PSU D.  I'm not even sure we ever hurried him, let alone touched him.  It did not even appear as if we were trying to put any pressure--stunts/blitzes--on Bortles, who frequently had time to sign autographs in the pocket, if he were so Johnny Football inclined to do so.

To place blame in this game is a misguided pursuit.  No one play really changed the complexion of the game.  But if we have to over analyze things, I would have to question the defensive coaching decision to not pressure the QB.  I have felt to this point that the coaching staff has been really good at making half time adjustments, but I felt we should have made a choice to become more aggressive in the second half--to take some chances to get back in the game and stop the Knights.  But hind sight is 20/20 and such a change could have given up more big plays.  Who knows?

In the final analysis, it was an exciting game to the end.  After the game, the guy who parks next to me asked whether I'd like to sit through a 6-4 loss or a 34-31 loss.  I take the latter.  Pretty loss beats ugly loss any day.  And I really felt like this team was going to pull it out.  I never felt that against Iowa.  Even Kirk Ferentz didn't believe we could pull it out as he intentionally took the safety to seal that game.

And there will be better (K)nights for both of these teams this year.

INTANGIBLES:

The crowd was listed at 92,855 but sounded as loud as I've ever heard for a non-conference, non-marquee game.  We just couldn't convert that support and emotion into plays on the field.

The Drum Major stuck both flips.

UCF won the toss and took the ball first.  They never looked back.

THE BIG (TEN) PICTURE:

A week after the Irish and THEM battled in the Boring Bowl, Purdue, who barely edged Indiana State, took the Irish all the way, losing 31-24.  Akron almost upset the wolvereenies, coming up a couple yards short and losing 28-24. 

It was a wild finish, but one that would be outdone by Wisconsin.  The Badgers, down by two, could have kicked a winning field goal, but in a bizarre play, the quarterback didn't take a knee--a phantom kneel according to ESPN (I didn't stay up to watch the game!) and time ran out.

The Spartans defeated Youngstown State 55-17.  Minnesota beat Western Illinois 29-12.  The Illini lost to Washington at Soldier Field, 34-24.  Indiana rebounded from the loss to Navy with a 42-10 victory over Bowling Green.  Northwestern continued to roll, defeating Western Michigan 38-17, and the Buckeyes with a back-up QB beat Cal 52-34.

And the Huskers, leading 21-3, allowed 38 unanswered points to fall 41-21 to UCLA.

SHEDDING TEARS:

1.  Texas A and M--Tide rolls 49-42.  Revenge is a bitch. 
2.  Temple Owls--lost to Fordham 30-29.
3.  Texas--lost second straight, falling to Ole Miss 44-23.  Who gets fired this week?
4.  Florida International--fell 34-13 to Bethune-Cookman.  Don't ask me.  I assume it's a school.

LOOKING AHEAD:

Kent State comes to Beaver Stadium next Saturday for a 3:30 game.

After going 11-3 last season, capped by a loss to Arkansas State in the GoDaddy Bowl, KSU opened the 2013 season with a 17-10 win over Liberty, but then went on to lose back to back games against Bowling Green (41-22) and LSU (45-13.)

GO STATE!  BEAT FLASHES!

Thursday, September 12, 2013

Weekly Game Day: O'Leary, O'Brien, O My! Edition

Penn State clings to about a five point favorite by the odds makers, when the Orlando Golden
Knights of UCF invade Beaver Stadium this Saturday at 6pm.

This will be an interesting test for a 2-0 Nittany Lion squad that has not really been challenged yet.  But this is still not the Knights of Columbus or the wolvereenies of Ann Arbor either.  This is a very winnable game.

Statistically, here are how the two teams match up (from the NCAA website):


 UCF PSU    
3rd Down Conversion Pct 24 123    
3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense 54 16    
4th Down Conversion Pct.   1    
4th Down Conversion Pct. Defense 70      
Fewest Penalties Per Game 11 30    
Fewest Penalty Yards Per Game 10 29    
First Downs Defense 20 11 20 11
First Downs Offense 67 67 67 67
Fumbles Lost 1 106    
Fumbles Recovered 22 56    
Kickoff Return Defense 57 100    
Kickoff Returns 100 55    
Net Punting 58 96    
Pass Sacks Allowed 90 110    
Passes Had Intercepted 1 95    
Passes Intercepted 65 36    
Passing Offense 42 24    
Passing Yards Allowed 13 24    
Passing Yards Per Completion 9 45    
Punt Return defense 38 83    
Punt Returns 30 22    
Red Zone Defense 5 75    
Red Zone Offense 44 1    
Rushing Defense 16 8 16 8
Rushing Offense 68 73 68 73
Scoring Defense 4 20 4 20
Scoring Offense 38 53 38 53
Tackles for Loss Allowed 88 63    
Team Pass Sacks 67 34    
Team Passing Efficiency 11 36    
Team Passing Efficiency Defense 45 16    
Team Tackles for Loss 15 39    
Time of Possession 40 58    
Total Defense 7 10 7 10
Total Offense 59 45 59 45
Turnover Margin 20 113    
Turnovers Gained 54 54    
Turnovers Lost 1 113    
Winning Percentage 1 1    
         
Averages 35.00 49.77 34.88 35.88

As we can see, the Golden Knights have a decided edge in overall statistics, 35.92 to 51.08 for the average NCAA ranking in all these categories.

But wait just a minute.  Total Defense is about even.  PSU has a slight edge in Total Offense, and even better in passing offense.  We suck really bad in just about any turnover category, but we are ranked right there with UCF in turnovers gained.  Our third down percentage is dead last.  L-O-U-S-Y.  Yet, we score points and win games, so does that stat really matter?

If you look just at the major offensive and defensive stats, and pretty much ignore special teams, penalties and turnovers, you can see the two teams are pretty evenly matched.

It is pretty clear that PSU has to stop turning the ball over, and improve on third down conversions.  Do those two things, and throw in home field advantage, and PSU wins this in a nail biter. 

USA Today ranked all 125 teams preseason, with PSU at 37.  UCF was 42.  Both are 2-0.

You can't coach turnovers.  What will happen will happen.  But I think PSU will turn that around.  Special teams struggled early last season, and got better as the season went on.  I still worry about Ficken, but the young man has done nothing to suggest he can't get the job done.  Punting is always an adventure, but I will be surprised if the outcome of this game turns on a single punt or two.

Many people don't remember how often Michael Robinson turned the ball over during the early games of the 2005 season.  He practiced with a football covered in silk to try and train himself to hang onto the ball better.  And he did.  In the Ohio State game, it was the Buckeye fumble that sealed the game for Penn State.  Now this is not 2005.  UCF is not Ohio State, and Hackenberg is not Michael Robinson.  But my point is that teams that are turning the ball over, frequently correct that problem for no rhyme or reason.  Some continue to fumble things away.

I think Penn State wins and beats the spread.  That and a call to Geico can save you 15% on your car insurance.

In the Big Ten this week:

Minnesota takes on Western Illinois (NL.)  GO GOPHERS!

Illinois will play Washington at Soldier Field.  Washington is a 9.5 point favorite.  GO HUSKIES!

Nebraska is a 4.5 point favorite over UCLA at home.  GO HUSKERS!

Iowa is a 2.5 point favorite over cross state rival Iowa State.  GO HAWKS!

Indiana hosts Bowling Green and is favored by 2.5.  GO HOOSIERS!

Akron (37 point dogs) travels to the Big OutHouse to take on THEM.  Whatever.

The Buckeyes actual leave Columbus in September to play Cal.  (NL due to the status of Braxton.)  GO CAL!

The Spartans warm-up against Youngstown State, in prep for the Irish next week.  GO SPARTY!

Speaking of the Irish, they are favored over Purdue by 20.5.  GO BOILERS!

Northwestern is a 31 point favorite over Western Michigan.  GO CATS!

And Wisconsin travels to the desert to play ASU.  The Sun Devils are favored by 5.5.  I can see that happening.  GO DEVILS!

Maryland is a touchdown favorite over UConn.  GO TERPS!

Buttgers will mop up EMU, favored by 27.5 over our most recent opponent.  GO SCARLET KNIGHTS!

And in the GAME OF THE WEEK . . .

Johnny Football will host the Alabama Crimson Tide who are favored by 7.5.  Odds give a 30% chance that Johnny signs autographs during the game.  ROLL TIDE ROLL!