The Other Ohio

In past years, I have previewed the season as a countdown from the game I felt would be the easiest to win to the game that I felt we were most likely to lose, or the most difficult game to win.

But as I look at this year's schedule, and contemplate the team we have, I realized something crucial . . .


The Old Paterno playbook.

I have no idea what to expect from this team.

For the first time since I have been following Penn State football, Joe Paterno is not at the helm.  And while there were games he missed the past few years due to health issues (or being unceremoniously fired without due process) his fingerprints were always discernible on the game plan.

With Joe, there was a certain constancy that was on the one hand comforting, and on the other hand terribly frustrating.  There was always a quarterback controversy--you never knew for sure who was going to start.  O'Brien has eliminated that doubt.  Barring an injury, McGloin will start the game.  It's crazy shit.  The man picked a starting QB.  Before fall practice even began.  I know!  Can you imagine this?!

I think it is safe to assume that we are going to see a different kind of offense.  While that may not necessarily mean a pass happy, fun and gun, kind of up-tempo offense that scores oodles of points, it is going to be different than the stodgy, vanilla excuse for an offense that has mired Penn State teams down since Fran Ganter "resigned." 

I expect the defense to be pretty good and perhaps more aggressive than what we Penn State fans are accustomed to.  Even though Bradley is no longer the defensive brain, the heart of those defenses--the defensive line and linebackers--should be solid, though depth issues may become a problem.  But those two areas should be okay due to the retention of Vanderlinden and Johnson.

Our kicking game took a hit with the transfer of Fera, but special teams can only be an improvement, as they have been sorely lacking for the past, oh, two decades?  I think we pretty much brought up the rear in kick off returns the past few seasons.  But I don't see a dedicated special teams coach, and I am not sure who or how many coaches will be involved in that aspect.  I still think things have to be better in this department, but maybe that is just wishful thinking.

With these issues in mind, I realized the task of assigning priority to games on a countdown became an exercise in futility.  Without some specific knowledge of how we stack up against teams, it is very difficult to predict outcomes.  We could beat Ohio State and lose to Indiana.  It's going to be that kind of year, I'm afraid to say.  Probably not, but I can wishfully think so here.  Actually, if we are going to wishfully think anything, then we'll think undefeated season.

So with a new staff and a boatload of unfair sanctions, I decided not to present a countdown, but instead to preview each game in order.  We are going to take this season one game at a time.

First off, the Ohio Bobcats.

This is the game of Successors.  Frank Solich succeeded Tom Osborne.  Bill O'Brien succeeded you know who.  Of course, Frank was modestly successful and still got canned, and Ohio is where he fell.  The verdict on O'Brien may take years to determine.

Ohio is picked by the Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook to win the MAC.

Ohio has a young team coming off perhaps the school's best season ever in the modern age of football.  According to SB Nation:

Solich has built the Ohio program the way he learned to at Nebraska: stock up on locals, redshirt like crazy, and bring in just enough outsiders to make things interesting.

Ohio has won at least eight games in four of its last six seasons, and not only did it bring home its first ever bowl win last December (in dramatic fashion, no less), but it did so with a ridiculously young squad.

Matt Zemek breaks down the Bobcat team and concludes that returning junior QB Tettleton is a key.

Bringing Tettleton back is big for the Bobcats and head coach Frank Solich, who has never had as good of a returning starting quarterback in place during spring camp in his eight years in Athens, Ohio. Tettleton threw for over 3,000 yards and 28 touchdowns last season, and was second on the team in rushing in 2011. Despite all of this, the offense has some retooling to do in 2012. The Bobcats need to replace two wide recievers including LaVon Brazill, and need to place two tackles on the offensive line.

On the defensive side of the ball, Ohio's 4-3 front seven lacked a bit of toughness last season, unable to apply consistent pressure on the quarterback. The biggest question mark for the Bobcats is that for the first time in four years they are without a stud middle linebacker. They lost Noah Keller to graduation. Despite this, they still do return nine starters on defense, including the entire secondary. If Solich and his staff can find someone to plug in the gaps at the middle linebacker position, they should be in good shape to once again challenge for the top spot in the MAC and claim the East Division flag.

On special teams, consistent junior Matt Weller returns to handle placekicking duties. The Bobcats must find replacements on kick returns, at long snapper, and at punter this spring.

This could be a dangerous first opponent.  But when I look at the out of conference schedule, only Navy didn't go to a bowl game, and of the three schools playing in bowls last year, only Virginia lost.  I vacillate between us going 4-0 and 0-4. 
But the die-hard, Kool-Aid drinking fan in me insists that we win this opening game, which may feature one of the largest opening crowds since Arizona came to Beaver stadium in 1999.

The game is key for a variety of reasons.  First, it is Bill O'Brien's debut.  Secondly, the whole world will be watching to see what happens at Penn State in the after-math of the Jerry Sandusky scandal. This game could set the tone for the whole season. 

I think our guys are going to come out on that field, to a full or nearly full stadium of fans anxious to put the past nine months behind us and MOVE ON, and score a solid victory for the Blue and White.  A win will do wonders to ease the pain of this past off-season.  Erickson can even apologize afterward if he feels the need--and he will.  The players can't control the sanctions.  They can't control the media.  But they can control their own destiny. 



Bobcats Like to Crack Nuts!



The Final Pre-Season Countdown: #1

So here is the season, counting down from the game we are most likely to win (#12) to the game we are most likely to lose (#1):

12. Indiana State University
11. Eastern Michigan University
10. Temple
9. Indiana
8. Purdue
7. Illinois
6. Northwestern
5. Iowa
4. Ohio State
3. Nebraska
2. Wisconsin
1. ALABAMA

How many teams can lose a trio of playmakers like Greg McElroy, Mark Ingram and Julio Jones and still be ranked second in the nation?  Maybe USC.  But apparently the Alabama Republicans from the Crimson State are in that minority as well..

Returning 18 starters from last years squad which handled Penn State easily at home, 24-3, but lost critical games to South Carolina , LSU and hated rival Auburn, Alabama looks to improve on their record of 10-3 from a year ago.

Maybe it's some solace to know that Alabama dominated Michigan State in the Capital One Bowl, beating Sparty 49-7.  Maybe not.

The Bama defense was ranked 5th in the nation in total defense and third in scoring defense, allowing opponents 13.5 points per game.  They return nine starters on a formidable unit that will be crucial to Alabama's success this season, especially given the uncertainty at QB.

As of the time of this writing, Saban has not named either A.J. McCarron or Phillip Sims, who are apparently neck and neck for the starting QB job.  Both are described as pocket passers.  But they will fortunately have a veteran line as 4 of the 5 starters are back.  Two senior starters return at wide receiver--Marquis Maze and Darius Hanks--but it remains to be seen if they can fill the shoes of the departed Jones.  Neither is very tall, listed at 5-11 and 6-0.

Tide Fans . . . ready for any crap you can throw at them.

I think pollsters are putting a lot of faith in the Bama defense to carry this team, or they feel the new quarterback has enough talent around him to perform well regardless.  In this day and age of football, you have to be able to score points.  Their schedule is littered with potential land mines, with games against ranked (Coaches Poll) opponents being LSU (4), South Carolina (12) Arkansas (14), Auburn (19), Misissippi State (20), Florida (23),  and PSU (25).  They also host unranked Tennessee and travel to Ole Miss.

The Tide will open with Kent State, and they follow our game hosting North Texas.  Our game is sandwiched between Indiana State and Temple, so neither team should be physically or emotionally tired coming in, or looking forward to a marquee opponent.  This is the marquee game.

For Penn State, it will be a white out game, starting at 3:30.  None of the players was even born when Joe Paterno battled Bear Bryant, and the 1979 Sugar Bowl is a historical curiosity.  Recent fans likewise may not appreciate the history of this match-up.  And this home and home series may never occur again as conferences swell to superconferences and OOC games dwindle to just low budget competition willing to fill home game slots.

This likely could be Paterno's last chance to beat the Tide.  JoePa is 4-9 versus the Tide.  (Penn State is 5-9 all time.) 

On paper, the only real advantages we have is more experience at QB, and home field advantage.  That's not much to work with.

But that is not to say there isn't a chance.  On any given Saturday . . . blah, blah, blah.  But with an inexperienced QB, the atmosphere at Beaver Stadium could rattle him.  If our defense can apply some pressure early in the game, throw the QB off his rhythm, and create a turn-over setting up field position for our offense, this game could be won.

If Bama comes out of the gate, marches down the field and scores, this will be a long late afternoon in Happy Valley.

Prediction:  We lose.  You'd have to be a bit crazy to seriously predict an upset.  This would be an upset of elephant-sized proportions.  But stranger things have happened, and it is early in the season, and success last year doesn't always mean a team will return with the same level of emotion and skill and chemistry.  Their weakness is quarterback.  If we can exploit that, we have a chance.  If we can't, then the Tide will Roll.   Of course, we will somehow have to find a way to score touchdowns against the Bama defense, and I don't know if we can.  Our quarterback will have to have a flawless night and it would help to have some great plays by Moye.  Even if we lose, I don't think the game will be as lop-sided as last year.

Big Red Yesterday

Big Red Today wrote on Sunday, which would make yesterday today, that Penn State should finish 9th in the Big Ten.

He backs this premise up with a thorough evaluation of the situation:

9. Penn State (7-6) [last years record, not a prediction for 2011]


Up next: Indiana State, 11 a.m., BTN

Difficult to get excited about a team led by a QB (Rob Bolden) who spent six months trying to transfer. He’s not the only worry. The defense makes few big plays and the O-line is a concern.

The defense makes few big plays?  Per season or per game?  Granted we don't make many of the Pete Giftopoulos type game changing plays every game, but I think our defense holds its own most seasons.

Not a lot of respect from a team just joining the league.

I thought I was pretty easy on the Huskers in my preseason report.  Maybe we will have a Rich Gardner type game-changing defensive play to answer this slap in the face.

But I guess I'm not one to talk since Dick has accused me of spewing Big Ten venom.

And I will grant him the other observations.  Quarterback position could be a problem, and our offensive line has been rebuilding since 2002.

BRT has the BEST Husker coverage.  With a name like Barfknecht, it has to be good!

Pre-Season Countdown: #2

The post you knew was coming before it got here.  So much for suspense.

12. Indiana State University
11. Eastern Michigan University
10. Temple
9.   Indiana
8.   Purdue
7.   Illinois
6.   Northwestern
5.   Iowa
4.  Ohio State
3.  Nebraska

And the #2, second most difficult game is . . .

WISCONSIN.

On Wisconsin.  Off Wisconsin.  Wax on.  Wax off. 

Wisconsin came out second on this list for a variety of reasons.  It is the final game of the season and the third of a brutal November that features back-to-back-to-back games with Nebraska, Ohio State and the Cheeseheads.

What can you say about a fan base where cheddar is a fashion statement, not a food?

The Badgers went 10-2 last year with losses to co-Big Ten Champ MSU and a heart-breaking, two-point loss to TCU in the Rose Bowl.  They return 13 starters but not the QB.  In fact, the top two teams on this list will be breaking in new signal callers.  Yet both are ranked and expected to do great things.  Let's see how that works out for them.

After I put this list together, I found out that Jon Budmayr, who was supposed to start for the Badgers at Quarterback, has been injured.  NC State transfer Russell Wilson is going to be thrust into the job early on, according to the ESPN Big 10 Blog.  Of course, he may be back by the last game of the season, but who knows if he can win his job back (ala Bolden last year) or if he will mentally and physically be able to manage the team.

Had I known this, I might have dropped the Badgers down to 4th.  But maybe not.  Does it really matter who is the quarterback?  They are going to line up a herd of cattle across the field and pound the ball at you come hell or high water.  They have depth at running back--Montee Ball (are you kidding me!), James White and Zach Brown.  Despite losing two all-Americans on the line, the Badgers are expected to reload.  That's what they do.  Big.  Offensive.  Linemen.

Defensively, the Badgers were 20th in the nation overall last season, and don't appear to have any glaring weaknesses.

The Badgers have won 9 or more games 6 of the last 7 years.  Can they sustain that kind of success?  The experts say yes.  The final outcome might be shaky, with the injury to their projected starting QB.  But we can expect physical football from the Land of Cheese.

Prediction:  We lose.  We might win, but I just don't have the confidence (stupidity) that I used to have.  I think a lot will come down to how banged up these teams are after the Big Ten season.  It should be an interesting finale, and hopefully will have some championship implications.

Pre-Season Countdown: #3

The Pre-Season Countdown continues toward the most difficult game . . .

12. Indiana State University
11. Eastern Michigan University
10. Temple
9. Indiana
8. Purdue
7. Illinois
6. Northwestern
5. Iowa
4. Ohio State

And the third most difficult game on our schedule this season is . . .

NEBRASKA.

Not to be a spoiler, but I think we all know who the #1 team will be, even though they are ranked #2 in the nation pre-season.  That leaves Wisconsin and Nebraska to battle it out for #2 and #3 spots.  The Badgers are returning 13 starters from a 10-2 team while the Huskers return 11 from a 10-4 team that lost to Washington in the Holiday Bowl (a team they defeated during the season 56-21.)

Moreover, the Wisconsin game is at Camp-Randall Stadium, while we have the luxury of playing the Huskers at home, after a bye week.

There is some evidence that the bye week IS NOT beneficial, according to this WSJ article.

In the Big Ten in particular, byes seem to hurt more than they help. The Big Ten's 11 teams are a combined 17-32 since 2002 when playing conference games on extra rest. Ohio State, which is 56-10 in Big Ten play over that span, is 1-3 on extra rest against conference opponents. Among the defeats was a 2004 loss to Northwestern, the Buckeyes' only loss to the Wildcats since 1971. Penn State and Iowa also are 1-3.

Not exactly what you want to hear.  Reality can be a bitch.  But I am going to over-rationalize this and assert that that bye week will help us.  Why?  This bye week comes late in the season.  Penn State has Nebraska, Ohio State and Wisconsin in consecutive weeks to close out the season.  I think the chance to take a breath here might be helpful.  In some cases, I think it hurts if you are on a roll--it throws your timing and emotion off.

This is not the Husker team of the Tom Osborne era.  The offense has a "west-coast" flavor to it and a dual threat quarterback in Martinez who could give us fits if he stays healthy.  Jamal Turner was recruited as a QB, but switched to WR during spring practice.  That opens the door for some gimmick style plays ala Randel El for the Steelers in Super Bowl XL, where he threw a TD pass to Hines Ward off a reverse play.

The Husker defense ranked 11th overall in the nation last season, and looks to be their strong point again this season.  DT Jared Crick, LB Lavonte David and CB Alfonzo Dennard are all stars, and according to most of what I've read, they have pretty good depth and are set to reload for another great year.  Teams only managed 17.4 points per game against them in 2010.

The Huskers will already be immersed in Big Ten football by the time they come to Happy Valley in November.  They will already have faced Wisconsin at Camp Randall in the Big Ten opener, and they will follow that rude awakening with a trip to Columbus.  They pull MSU at home in late October, and they have a trip to Ann Arbor planned for the week after Penn State.  Could they be looking ahead?

As for the game against the Badgers, some, like Athlon Sports, are predicting this could be a preview of the inaugural Big Ten Championship game.  For what it's worth, these may be the two teams to beat in the Big Ten race.

Overall, I like our chances against the Huskers and look forward to this game.  Nebraska has not won at Beaver Stadium since 1980.  Their loss in 1982 ruined a chance at the national championship for them and paved the way for Joe Paterno's first national title.  The loss in 2002 was simply an electric atmosphere, when Penn State knocked off then 7th ranked Nebraska by a score of 40-7.  That is one game I will never forget.  Penn State fans had a chip on their shoulder after losing to the Huskers in the polls in 1994.  A decade of frustration was taken out on them that night in one of the loudest games ever at Beaver Stadium.

And as an historical aside, PSU beat Central Florida 27-24 the week before pasting the Huskers.  Granted, Nebraska ended the season unranked and was probably over-rated.  This season, we open with a team like Indiana State before hosting Alabama.  Could history repeat itself????

Hey!  I can dream can't I?

Prediction:  If Nebraska is as good as the experts claim them to be, then I don't think PSU can win this game.  But I do think it is winnable.  I'm not sold on QB Martinez, and he had an ankle injury last season which may play a factor in his play this year.  I think Nebraska is going to find play in the Big Ten to be a little different than the high scoring shoot 'em up Big XII conference, where the only Big D they have heard of is Dallas.  Officially, I call this a loss.  Off the record, I think we can win this game.

I'm so good at hedging, I ought to start a hedge fund!

For your enjoyment . . .

Pre-Season Countdown: #4

A recap of the list of games so far, from #12 the easiest to #4 . . .

12.  Indiana State University
11.  Eastern Michigan University
10. Temple
9.  Indiana
8.  Purdue
7.  Illinois
6.  Northwestern
5.  Iowa

And the #4 spot goes to . . .

OHIO STATE.

If the Buckeyes still had Jim Tressel as coach, and Terrell Pryor at the helm, this game would definitely be in the Top 2. But both are gone, don't let the stadium gate hit you on the ass on your way out.

Luke, I am yo daddy!

First year head coach Luke Fickell will have to prove himself.  He will be dealing with a new quarter back, the suspensions of Dan Herron, Mike Adams, and DeVier Posey for five games, as well as the general fall-out from last season's scandal.  If he can manage to get this mess back to a Big Ten Title, he deserves to be named coach of the year.

Don't get me wrong . . . O$U returns a load of talent,and there is no reason why they shouldn't be contending for a title.  But it is my humble opinion that teams in a conference like the Big Ten can't do that with a new, inexperienced  quarterback or a new head coach.  The Buckeyes have a double whammy.

With the loss of Pryor, the team returns only 11 starters.matching Wisconsin and Iowa for the fewest returning starters in the conference.

Penn State has won only one game in Columbus since joining the Big Ten.  But unlike Iowa, whom we can't seem to beat to save our life, we have matched up with the Buckeyes cleat to cleat with major victories in 2005 and 2008.  Two big games in a decade, though, is probably nothing to crow about, but at least we do have some wins.  We're 12-14 all-time against Ohio State.

NO ONE KNOWS HOW WELL OHIO STATE would have done, had they not cheated.  If recruits picked Ohio State because of the perceived benefits, then the record of the Buckeyes this past decade is suspect.

Now it may seem that I am counting the Bucks out this year.  Au contraire.  (That's French for not so fast.)  I don't think we will win any game from this point on in the countdown.  But of the remaining games, we might have a chance at this one if the wheels come off in Columbus.  And I wouldn't be surprised if they do.

Will the team rally around Fickell and use this adversity to become better? They might. Or the distractions and changes might disrupt the Big Ten juggernaut and throw it out of its groove.

Prediction: I don't think we will win this game, as of typing this in August. If Penn State shows me something on the field, and Ohio State struggles with new coach/quarterback, then I might reconsider. I just hope that win or lose, we play a competitive game, and don't throw the game away with an overly conservative game plan on the road that plays right into their strength. Both wins over the Buckeyes came when we played conservative and they made the mistakes (the Troy Smith fumble in 2005 and the Pryor fumble in 2008.) Both were relatively low scoring, conservative games. Maybe that's the way to go, but if we get behind, I hope we try to make something happen instead of falling apart.

From the creators of "Friends with Benefits"

Pre-Season Countdown: #5

At this point, things change dramatically.  The last seven games (#12 thru #6) are very winnable games.  Penn State should win them.  That doesn't mean they will, but on paper, that should be seven wins.  As such, we would be bowl eligible.  Toilet Bowl eligible.

But these next five games . . . these will separate the wheat from the chaff.  The contenders from the pretenders. 

Our nominees for #5 include:  Alabama, Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio State, and Wisconsin.  This is a formidable group, and if the 2011 Penn State team doesn't show some major improvement over the 2010 version, we will be staring down the barrel of five losses here.  All but Iowa are ranked in various pre-season polls.

So is it any surprise that the #5 honor goes to . . . .

IOWA.

It's a four-letter word.  So is Ohio.  And Bama.  And Corn.  Wisk?

What can you say about Iowa?  It's the cornfield that separates Minnesota from Missouri.

For whatever reasons, there are just some coaches that Paterno cannot figure out.  Bear Bryant.  John Cooper.  Lloyd Carr.  And among the worst . . . Pennsylvania native Kirk Ferentz.

Seriously, in the annuls of college football, Iowa shouldn't be in the same chapter as Alabama, Ohio State or THEM.  No offense, Iowa.  You are what you are.  There's the Iowa Caucuses, so you've got that going for you.

Yet, this is a team that despite not being able to win anything significant, always seems to be able to beat Penn State.  This is a team that can stumble its way to a loss against the Pittsburgh Panthers, but then play like the freaking Pittsburgh Steelers when they face us.  (They did that in 2008 and have a chance to repeat that feat this season, although I doubt we will be ranked 3rd when we play them.)  Perhaps we should be honored that they save their best game for us.  Perhaps they should be honored that we always find a way to lose this game.

Iowa will return only 11 starters from a squad that went 8-5 last season, beating Missouri in a bowl.  They only lost to the Badgers by a point, to the Buckeyes by 3, but then lost to Minnesota.  Michigan State pwned them, much the same way Iowa has pwned this series.

Gone forever is the Stanzi Scheme.  I'm doing jazz hands just thinking about it.  The offensive line will largely be intact and solid.  But will there be anything to protect? Coker looked good at RB in the Insight Bowl (219 yards + MVP), and with a veteran line, should take some pressure off new quarterback, junior James Vandenberg, who threw only 8 passes last year.  WR McNutt is 5 receptions away from tying Iowa's career record holder, so there's someone to throw to.

But there is a lot of rebuilding on the defensive line, and to make matters worse, special teams have been less than special.  They cost the Hawks a couple of games last year.

All in all, they are a team on par with Penn State.  I think Penn State is better on paper, and paper beats rock, but I have no idea how that means anything here.  Questions at QB. A couple good skill players here and there.  Offensive line is their strength.  Defensive line may be ours.

Given this is a home game for PSU, that ought to amount for something.  Well forget that.  White Out was a fizz out.  We play Iowa no better at home than any other damned place in the world.  I still can't get the nightmare of 6-4 out of my mind.

Prediction:  For the sake of my sanity and all that is holy, PENN STATE MUST WIN THIS GAME.  This Iowa team will probably be no weaker in the near future than they are this season.  We must strike while the oven is hot and pop the corn while we can.  The game will be close because for the life of me, there isn't enough Kool Aid in the world to make me think we could defeat these guys.  I know how the Buffalo Bills feel about Super Bowls.  It defies all explanation.  I'd rather have corn stuck in my teeth for the next year than lose another game to Iowa.

Cpl. Radar O'Ferentz of Ottumwa, Iowa

Pre-Season Countdown: #6

The sixth most difficult game on the schedule this season is . . .

NORTHWESTERN.

This game is sandwiched between home games with Purdue and Illinois. 

The Wildcats return a remarkable 17 starters, with an offense almost completely intact.  The Prince of Persa returns as starting quarterback.

Last season, Penn State fell behind by 21 points in the first half, only to roar back to a 35-21 victory that gave Joe Paterno win #400.  Interestingly, Penn State has a pretty good chance of going into this game 6-1 (with a loss to Bama) which would put Paterno at 407 victories.  A win against the Wildcats would tie Eddie Robinson's record at Grambling.  IF--and its an if the size of an elephant--Penn State rolls into Evanston undefeated, it would be a chance to break that record.  Either way, there may be some historical excitement accompanying this game again.

I'm surprised that Northwestern doesn't have a better defense.  They ranked 97th in the country last year and will lose three of their front seven.  I'm surprised, of course, since Fitzgerald was a tenacious linebacker.  Maybe I expect too much.

But Northwestern always seems to be one of those opponents dubbed as a trap game for some reason.  In fact, this idiosyncrasy made it into a top five list of potential message board meltdowns this season:

5. The Northwestern Trap Game – I love this argument because this year it can actually happen. If this were to happen, all of the previous meltdowns would merge into one massive meltdown where... I don't even want to think about this one...

Obviously, Northwestern has that capability to come up with a marquee win now and then.  They knocked off Iowa last year the week after blowing a three touchdown lead to Penn State.  Then they lost to Illinois and followed up with a blowout loss to the badgers, giving up 70 points.  Of course, I believe Persa was out at that point, but 70 points off a defense has nothing to do with the starting quarterback.

But with a schedule that includes Eastern Illinois, Army, and Rice, the Wildcats look capable of keeping their head above .500 and seeking a fourth straight bowl appearance.

While we will be coming off a homecoming game against Purdue, Northwestern will be returning from a trip to Iowa.  That's never a good thing.

Prediction:  I think Penn State will be 6-1 going into this game and building momentum.  I look for a shaky start, a solid third quarter and pulling away with a win by at least 10 points.  Don't ask me why.  It's just a feeling I have.  It might be gas.

Pre-Season Countdown: #7

So let's recap the list of opponents from the easiest game (#12) to the the most difficult (#1):

#12  Indiana State University
#11  Eastern Michigan University
#10  Temple
#9  Indiana
#8  Purdue

Which brings us to #7 . . .

ILLINOIS.

Why do I put the Illini here?  Why not?  There are far more important and philosophical questions to ask before this season starts. 

Basically, I don't see Illinois being a more formidable foe than Iowa, Alabama, Ohio State, Nebraska, or Wisconsin.  The only other team to be ranked yet is Northwestern, and quite frankly, that game is on the road and I fear Pat Fitzgerald more than Ron Zook.  And perhaps that, in the end, is the reason that Northwestern went higher in the draft than Illinois.

In looking at this Illinois team--if you read about what is being written--you wonder why they haven't already been named Big Ten champs.  Their schedule is favorable, albeit with a September 17th home game against Arizona State.  The Illini should be able to win OOC games against Arkansas State, South Dakota State, and Western Michigan.  They open the Big Ten with their fifth consecutive home game against Northwestern.  Won't I look like an idiot if they win that game?  Well, I already look like one, so it's a moot point anyway.

Last season, Zook replaced both his offensive and defensive coordinators.  Fortunately for PSU fans, neither of those gentlemen were named Larry Johnson, Sr.  But despite that, Illinois fielded an offense that set a program record 32.5 points per game.  RB Leshoure set a school record with 1,697 yards.  Of course, he is gone in the NFL draft along with Corey Liuget and Martez Wilson on defense.

The Illini went 7-6 with a bowl victory over Baylor.  They return 14 starters.  Ron Zook is known for recruiting.

But Zook is not known for winning.  At Illinois for 6 years, the team has not gone to consecutive bowl games since 1992.  Consistency, thy name is not Illinois.  So if you're a gambling man, this is a year NOT to make a bowl game.

Yet, there is a strange sense of optimism in Illini country.

Kevin Elliot of ChiCitySports writes:

You won’t hear me say this often, and I may regret it soon, but here it goes: I’m excited for the 2011 Illini football season to commence.

Hope has taken residence in Champaign-Urbana, a cautiously optimistic vibe coursing through the streets. And perhaps I’m crazy to admit this, but there are legitimate reasons to believe the Illini could put together a successful 2011 campaign.

Reason #1: Schedule.

Goodbye, Missouri. Hello, Arkansas State.

Reason #2: Talent.

While Mikel LeShoure, Corey Liuget, and Martez Wilson will be missed, the Illini return 15 starters, including starting QB Nathan Scheelhaase and leading receiver A.J. Jenkins.It remains to be seen whether RB Jason Ford can emerge from his backup role and become a consistent workhorse, but he will be helped by an experienced offensive line, a group Zook has specifically mentioned as being a major strength. The defense has lost some key pieces, but the Illini will look to Senior LB Ian Thomas, CB Terry Hawthorne, and DL Akeem Spence to be significant contributors.

Reason #3: Coordinators

The hiring of Paul Petrino to run the offense and Vic Koenning to run the defense paid big dividends last season.

But in the end, this is still a Ron Zook team in a tough league and even though Illinois smacked us in the mouth last year, they are still--in the end--just Illinois, a big block I with no mascot. 

Penn State will play Illinois before facing Nebraska--but we will have a bye week before that juggernaut game, so it's not likely we will be looking ahead.  Illinois is the third triumvirate of swing games--games which PSU should win but you never know for sure--that includes sequentially Purdue, Northwestern and Illinois.  This is October in Penn State football, along with an opening game against the Hoosiers.

Prediction:  I may be drinking the Kool Aid here, but I do think we will be improved from last season.  I am not as optimistic for Illinois as their fans may be.  I call this a close win by Penn State, maybe one of those where we kick a field goal late in the game and hope that Illinois doesn't pull a 1999 Minnesota or a 2005 THEM miracle out in the end.

I haven't posted a final season prediction, but I'm leaning towards 8-4.  I could be talked into 10-2.  Either way, I think Penn State needs to win this game to achieve that level of success.  A loss to Illinois means 6-6 or 7-5.  There's too many Big Ten teams better than the Illini, so if we can't get past this game, then another outcome like last year is likely (7-6 overall.)

DO, OR DO NOT.  THERE IS NO TRY.

You're right, Yoda.  Penn State wins this game!

Pre-Season Countdown: #8

The nominees for the eighth most difficult team to beat this upcoming season are Purdue (for their short documentary in chicken commercials,) Northwestern (for their role in Hitchcock's North by Northwestern) and Illinois ( for the most cartoonish head coach surname--Zook.)

And the winner is . . .

PURDUE.

In looking at the remaining schedule, these three teams not only occur in order in October, but they are fairly clearly a yard or two behind the others:  Ohio State, Alabama, Nebraska, Iowa and Wisconsin.  If you don't believe me, check the various polls out so far.  All but Iowa seem to be making appearances in various spots in the Top 25.  You won't find any of these three teams even receiving votes.  (Truth be told, Northwestern got one point in the AP poll, but who outside of Evanston gives a fark?)

Oh Danny Boy!

In contrasting these three nominees, Purdue gets the nod for several reasons.  In regards to schedule, this home game is sandwiched between Iowa and a trip to Evanston.  Iowa has given us fits the past decade or so, and while it should be a game we win this season, there are no automatic W's when it comes to the corn boys.  As such, we might be emotionally down after that game depending on the result.  We certainly have tougher games to be looking ahead to than Northwestern.  No offense, wildcats.

Purdue's weakness is offense, which plays into what I perceive as our strength--our defense.  Gone is Joe Tiller and the spread run and gun.  Purdue ranked 105th in the nation last year  averaging 19.7 points per game.  To make matters worse, their D gave up 28.8 points per game.  However, they are returning most of their defensive unit (9 starters) but are without Ryan Kerrigan, the Washington Redskins first round draft pick.

Purdue is coming off a 4-8 season in 2010, which includes wins over Ball State and Western Illinois.  They lost to Toledo, but hey, that shit happens.  They did beat Northwestern (no offense wildcats, but that's kind of embarrassing) 20-17.  Their fourth win was against Minnesota. 

Despite finishing with six straight losses, they did seem to improve to some degree, only losing to Michigan State 35-31 and taking Indiana to OT while coming up short 34-31.

Danny "thanks for the memories" Hope, is 9-15 at Purdue and is in his third year.  Is third time the charm?  More likely, this will be strike three.  Most of the publications I have read put the Boilers around 9th in the Big Ten.  That's not as bad as it used to be since we now have 12 teams, but the twelfth team--Nebraska--is ranked ahead of them, so it's pretty much a wash there.

Penn State is 10-3-1 all time versus Purdue.

This game is homecoming for Penn State, and the Lions are 65-21-5 in homecoming games and have won 39 of the last 45.

Prediction:  While you never know for sure how a team will come together, it certainly doesn't look promising for the Boilermakers.  I think Penn State will be able to score against them, and I don't think they will offensively be able to move the ball consistently against us.  I look for an impressive homecoming victory--solid but not a blow out.

Pre-Season Countdown: #9

Here's our list of games from easiest to most difficult:

#12  Indiana State University
#11  Eastern Michigan University
#10  Temple

And with a great big YAWN, we introduce #9 . . .

INDIANA.

OSU?
I came to the Big Ten so I wouldn't have
to play Oklahoma State anymore!

As we touched on in our Countdown to the season #10 (Temple), the Hoosiers are sporting a new head coach, former OC for the Oklahoma Sooners.  Unfortunately, offense has not been the biggest problem with the Hoosiers the past few years.  Their defense allowed 34 points per game (ranked 102nd in the nation) last season. 

But the Hoosiers return five of their front seven, so with some experience on the line, hopefully that stat will improve.

That said, the Hoosiers need to replace QB Ben Chappell who passed for 3,295 yards a year ago.  Both candidates for the job are listed as 'good passers who can run.'  Kevin Wilson is also planning on adding the hurry-up offense, which will be a change for the team.

Overall, the team returns 14 starters (six on offense, 6 on defense, plus the kicker and punter) from a team that limped to a 5-7 season last year.

The first four games for the Hoosiers are Ball State, Virginia, South Carolina State, and North Texas.  With a little luck against the Cavaliers, Indiana might come into this game undefeated.  Penn State must overcome the Tide to make the same claim.  The safe odds are that these two teams will meet with records of 3-1.

Both PSU and Indiana will open Big Ten play, with the Lions coming off a prep game against EMU and the Hoosiers returning from a trip to North Texas.  Both teams may be in a sugar coma from their cupcake.

Penn State has struggled in Big Ten openers over the years, and strangely seems to open on the road more often than at home.

Season	Opener	Venue	Result
1993	Minnesota	H	W 38-20
1994	Minesota	A	W 56-3
1995	Wisconsin	H	L 17-9
1996	Wisconsin	A	W 23-20
1997	Illinois	A	W 41-6
1998	Ohio State	A	L 28-9
1999	Indiana	H	W 45-24
2000	Ohio State	A	L 45-6
2001	Wisconsin	H	L 18-6
2002	Iowa	H	L 42-35 OT
2003	Minnesota	H	L 20-14
2004	Wisconsin	A	L 16-3
2005	Northwestern	A	W 34-29
2006	Ohio State	A	L 28-6
2007	THEM	A	L 14-9
2008	Illinois	H	W 38-24
2009	Iowa	H	L 21-10
2010	Iowa	A	L 24-3
2011	Indiana	A	?
		8H - 11A	7-11
		Home	3-5
		Away	4-6

Although we have opened with OSU or THEM 4 times, NONE have been at home.  We opened with Indiana in 1999, a great season until the Minnesota fiasco.

Prediction:  It may seem like a repeat of Temple, but new coach, new system--> rebuilding or transition year for the Hoosiers.  Rebuilding year?  Hoosier Football:  Rebuilding since 1967!  Penn State wins, but with Iowa up next, I suspect we play conservatively.  Do we play any other way?  Okay--more conservatively.  Expect a low scoring, too close for comfort kind of game on the road.

Pre-Season Countdown: #10

So let's recap. 

We started with the easiest game/opponent on the schedule at #12 with Indiana State University.  Number 11 was Eastern Michigan University. 

The nominees for #10 include Indiana, Temple, Ohio State and Illinois.  Well, even without Pryor and Tressel, I don't think the Buckeyes have a chance at coming in at #10.  So without further ado . . .

TEMPLE.

I almost declared a tie between the Hoosiers and the Owls.  Let's face it, we're talking six of one and half a dozen of the other here.  More interesting is that both schools are sporting new coaches this season.  Former offensive coordinators are all the rage on the fashion runways in the NCAA this fall.  The Owls have Steve Addazio, erstwhile offensive coordinator from Florida and the Hoosiers hired Kevin Wilson from Oklahoma where he was, coincidentally enough, their offensive coordinator.

In the end, I had to give the nod to Temple, though.  Big Ten lower tier trumps mid-level MAC team.  Both are road games, although the Temple game will essentially be an Eastern Home Game for Penn State.

The Owls went 8-4 last season and gave Penn State a bit of a scare with a 22-13 contest at Beaver Stadium.  Truth be told, many Temple faithful believed that last year was THE YEAR they would finally beat Penn State.  Maybe the Hoosiers thought that way as well.  Neither team took the Cinderella title and lived happily ever after.

The big question is what kind of team will this be in the post-Golden Age?

Offensively, Temple should be okay.  They have an offensive coordinator from an offensively strong program like Florida, which incidentally pasted quite a few points against us in the bowl game.

But according to Greg Doyle of CBSsports, the Addazio hire is not a good thing.

In one fell swoop, Temple football is back to being Temple football. Which is to say, Temple football returned to irrelevance today by hiring a man who did the impossible: failing to score points with Urban Meyer's offense and Florida's recruits.

Hold the presses, Nellie.  That was with the talent that FLORIDA and URBAN MEYER accumulated.  Can Addazio be able to replicate his success with what Al Golden was able to assemble?  Doyle doubts it and I'm inclined to agree.

My gut feeling?  Addazio won't be successful right away.  Give him a few years to recruit "his people" for "his system" and maybe he'll enjoy some success.  I've also never been impressed that former OC's do well defensively, and as we shall see in the next paragraph, that could be a problem.

But while Temple may have some good running backs (Brown and Pierce) and experienced quarterbacks (Stewart and Gerardi), they will have to find some way to plug the defensive losses to the NFL.  Muhammad Wilkerson was a first-rounder to the Jets and Jaiquawn Jarrett, a free safety, went in the second round to the Eagles.

In case you are wondering, Addazio hired former Florida defensive co-coordinator Chuck Heater to be his defensive coordinator.  But unlike the offense that may have some talent to work with, Heater will not have the level of athletes he was accustomed to with the Gators.  Can you say rebuilding year(s)?

Overall, the Owls return 15 players--8 on offense, 6 on defense and the kicker.  But their kicker was only 13-20 on field goals last year and 5-9 from 40+ yards.  They will have a new punter.

As for scheduling, this game follows the Alabama game.  IF--and that's a big IF--the Lions can find a way to win that game, this could certainly become a trap/let-down game.  The talent at Temple won't fall dramatically because Golden left.  But, the next game is Eastern Michigan, so the Lions won't be looking ahead at anything.  If Penn State loses badly to Bama, this could be bad for Temple, who may get beat up out of frustration.  A close emotional loss to the Tide, though, might bode well for the Owls, who could capitalize on the emotional down.

So many ifs, so few ands or buts.

My prediction:  Temple will not be as good this year under a new head coach and a new system.  They don't have the talent level that Florida has.  Addazio has yet to prove he can be a head coach.  I think Penn State wins this game, but if we are sloppy and come out sluggish, the final score could be close like last year.  Personally, I think it won't be that close, though.

As an interesting side note, did anyone notice who the offensive coordinator is for the Owls?

Scot Loeffler.  Yes, that Scot Loeffler.  The same one that convinced Chad Henne to go to THEM.  Since leaving THEM, he has been on the staff at Florida, and came with Addazio to Temple.

THEM to Florida to . . . Temple?  What direction is his career going?

Pre-Season Countdown: #11

Nominees for the 11th spot (the second easiest team to beat on our schedule next season) are pretty much the same as the nominees for the 12th spot sans Indian State: Indiana, Temple, Wisconsin, and Eastern Michigan.  Wisconsin?  Forget that.  This is like the opening question to Who Wants To Be A Millionaire.  The Badgers are thrown in there as a junk answer that only a llama would pick.

And the winner is:

EASTERN MICHIGAN UNIVERSITY.

The Eagles were 2-10 last year with victories over Buffalo (21-17) and Ball State (41-38 in OT.)  Which begs the question, are Ball State and Buffalo that bad???  The Buckeyes pummeled EMU 73-20.  Northern Illinois polished them off 71-3.

Emu

EMU returns 15 starters from a not so good team.

Defense is the problem.  The Eagles gave up 40 points or more in 7 games, with an average of 43.9 points per game.  Interestingly enough, their head coach, Ron English, used to be a defensive coordinator under Lloyd Carr at THEM.  English is 2-22 since taking over as head coach.

The front four are small and pass rushing has been a significant problem.  Giving up 70 + points twice is pretty significant too.  EMU had only 10 sacks all season last year, third worst in the nation.

Offensively, they should be better off.  Alex Gillett (The best the team could get?), a junior, should be the starting QB, and is supposedly a dual threat.  He did lead the team in rushing with 766 yards last year.  But he threw an equal number of INTs as TDs (13.) Perhaps his experience will translate into more consistency.  Last year, they averaged 19 points per game, but scored only 6 against Vanderbilt and 7 against Toledo.  The whole thing is moot, though, if the defense can't keep PSU from scoring.

Special teams shouldn't be an issue either way as this game won't be that close.

Schedule-wise, this is the fourth game of the season, coming off a trip to Temple and a week before we open Big Ten play at Indiana.  I don't think we need to be worried about injuries from the Temple game, or looking ahead to Indiana.

This will also be an early game, so I expect the team to come out sluggish, and be perhaps only up by a couple of scores at the half (10-14 points.)  Look for them to put this game well out of reach late in the game, with the back-up QB getting some reps.

Pre-season Countdown: #12

Each year, I try to put together a countdown of the Penn State season, starting with the game we are most likely to win (the easiest opponent) at #12 and ending with the game we are most likely to lose (the most difficult opponent) at #1.

As is the case most seasons, the #12 game is not a highly disputed spot.  The nominees for #12 are Indiana State, Temple, Eastern Michigan, Indiana and Alabama.  Okay, I'm just kidding about Alabama.

And the winner is . . .

INDIANA STATE UNIVERSITY.

The Sycamore Defense--good for blocking field goals; not much else

Unfortunately for the Mighty Sycamores, this game will be played on grass and not inside the Bryce Jordan Center.

When this game was first scheduled, the Sycamores had won just one game in four seasons.  They doubled their wins to two games in five seasons, and last year, they had their first winning season (6-5) since 1996.

The Sycamores have been to three bowl games all-time, the Shrine Bowl in 1949, and the Pecan Bowl in 1983-4.  They have never won a bowl game.  In the championship subdivision, they have made it to the play-offs twice (1983/4) with an overall record of 1-3.  Not much to cheer about since the early eighties.

Not only are we playing a team not in the Bowl Subdivision, but we are playing one of the worst teams in the Championship Subdivision.

Season	Wins	Losses
2000	1	10
2001	3	8
2002	5	7
2003	3	9
2004	4	7
2005	0	11
2006	1	10
2007	0	11
2008	0	12
2009	1	10
2010	6	5
Totals	24	100

Can ISU build on that winning season of 2010?

The answer really has no bearing on whether Penn State will win this game or not.  Seriously, this is not Appalachian State we are discussing here.  Even if the Sycamores ARE better than a year ago, or any other season this past decade, they will not be able to defeat Penn State.

Don't Holy Toledo me here.  This is not the Penn State team of 2000, and this Sycamore team is not the Toledo team that went to a bowl game in 2000.

Penn State has never lost to an FCS level team and this will not be the first. 

So do you even need to watch this game?  No.  But you should nonetheless.

The excitement of this game will be to see who has won the starting QB job.  That's it.  Nothing else to see here.  The game should be over by halftime and the stadium will never be full.  The game itself will be plain vanilla.  There is no way Paterno is going to show Saban anything on tape that will be remotely useful for the next week.

I'm not sure I agree with that theory completely.  It might be nice to show something just to make them worry about things, but not the enough to know our entire gameplan.  I type this as if other teams DON'T KNOW our gameplan!  I sometimes wonder if WE know our gameplan.  Further, whichever QB is selected, he needs some quality reps.  Just dinking the ball to the sideline and handing off will be enough to win this game, but not enough to prepare for the Bama defense.

On the other hand, whichever QB is selected, that person likely sees better competition week in and week out in practice against our own defense, than anything he will face from ISU.

This game isn't even worth the bandwidth to discuss X's and O's.  So let's discuss their mascot.

Originally, ISU was a teacher's college, but the fighting teachers apparently didn't make opponents shake in their cleats like the mighty Sycamore.  Thus was born the Fighting Trees with a Tree mascot.

A tree named Woody????

In 1969, or thereabouts because who really cares outside of Terre Haute, Indiana, they voted Chief Quabachi (cookin' on his Hibachi) as their mascot.

Unfortunately, the University bent to PC pressure and ditched the Indian Chief for no mascot at all.  But in 1995, Sycamore Sam was born.  They didn't win a game that year.  You do the math.  Sam is a woodland animal, like a fox, but not a fox.  Whatever.

Poll Dancing

The USA Today PreSeason Coaches Poll is out and Penn State has made it to the dance, so to speak, coming in at #25.

Rank	Team (first-place votes)	2010 record	Points	Final 2010 ranking	Delta
1	Oklahoma (42)	12-2	1,454	6	5
2	Alabama (13)	10-3	1,414	11	9
3	Oregon (2)	12-1	1,309	3	0
4	LSU (2)	11-2	1,296	8	4
5	Florida State	10-4	1,116	16	11
6	Stanford	12-1	1,101	4	-2
7	Boise State	12-1	1,065	7	0
8	Oklahoma State	11-2	933	10	2
9	Texas A & M	9-4	885	21	12
10	Wisconsin	11-2	829	8	-2
11	Nebraska	10-4	814	19	8
12	South Carolina	9-5	779	22	10
13	Virginia Tech	11-3	767	15	2
14	Arkansas	10-3	750	12	-2
15	TCU	13-0	687	2	-13
16	Ohio State	12-1	631	5	-11
17	Michigan State	11-2	536	14	-3
18	Notre Dame	8-5	440	NR	N/A
19	Auburn	14-0	329	1	-18
20	Mississippi State	9-4	301	17	-3
21	Missouri	10-3	266	18	-3
22	Georgia	6-7	260	NR	N/A
23	Florida	8-5	240	NR	N/A
24	Texas	5-7	162	NR	N/A
25	Penn State	7-6	161	NR	N/A

Five teams are ranked that didn't make the final ranking last season: Notre Dame, Georgia, Florida, Texas and Penn State.  Not bad company, the Irish notwithstanding.

Two teams had losing records last season:  Texas and Georgia.

Number one and two fell significantly, dropping 13-18 spots.  Number three remained the same.

Big movers (+8 or more) include F$U, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Nebraska and Alabama.

Big droppers (-8 or more) include TCU, Ohio State, and Auburn.

As a conference, the Big Ten has 5 teams:  Wisconsin, MSU, Ohio State, Nebraska and Penn State.

The SEC has 8 representatives:  Alabama, LSU, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Arkansas, Auburn, and Mississippi State.

The PAC-12 has 2:  Oregon and Stanford.

The ACC has 2 teams:  Va Tech and F$U.

The Big-XII has 5 teams:  Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Missouri and Texas.

The Mountain West Conference has 2 teams:  Boise State and TCU.

The Big East has NONE.

As a Penn State fan, I think just making the rankings is a significant achievement for a 7-6 team that really struggled at times last year.  I think our defense will be able to keep most games close this year, but there are a lot of questions regarding the line and the quarterback position.

To put this in some perspective, the 1986 undefeated Nittany Lions never gave up more than 19 points in any game, averaging 11.1 points given up per game.  They averaged 28.3 points per game scoring.

Last year, our offensive managed 24.5 points per game while the defense gave up 23.6 points per game.

With a margin of 17 points between what your offense can do and what your defense allows, it is easy to see how an undefeated season comes together.  Keep in mind, though, that in 1986, Penn State squeaked by Maryland 17-15.

But with a margin of less than a point per game last year, the result was a believable 7-6.

What I'm trying to say in a roundabout way is that it is just as important to score points as it is to prevent your opponent from scoring.  The defense can't do it alone.

How enthusiatic are you about our 2011 offense?

Getting Ready for Some Football

Believe it or not, the first game of the season for Penn State is this Saturday . . . and the general college football season begins on Thursday.  Pitt leads off in its usual Thursday spot with a game against Utah.  The Utes have a 17 home game win streak going for them.  Pitt has . . .um, well, they're used to playing on Thursdays.  See, I can say something nice about them.

But as I prepared for the upcoming opener--hoisting the blue Penn State flag (blue for home, white for away), putting the Penn State Blue Band CD into the car's disc player (drivers look at me funny as I pound my fist in the air to P-S-U or remove my hat for the playing of the Alma Mater. . . . they look at me funny and give me strange gestures on other occasions, but I digress), and picking up the Citizen's Bank button ("Too Young For Old State")--I realized that my excitement level this year is not as high as it usually is.  I think its the lame button's fault.

Galen at LinebackerU likens the upcoming season to Christmas:

Did we get the proverbial Playstation 3 in the form of a Big Ten champ or did we get a team equivalent to a new set of tube socks?

I guess I'm fearing tube socks.  Worse yet, already worn and smelly tube socks.  Maybe underwear.  That doesn't fit.  And is already dirty.  You get the general idea.

Have I lowered my expectations?  Perhaps.  I just don't have a good feeling about this team yet--and I haven't even seen them play a down of regulation football yet.  Perhaps that is normal, but usually I could convince myself at this point that we are a mere 12 games away from playing in the BCS title game, and only the referees or bad weather could stand in our way.  The season is just a technicality.

So what do I want to see Saturday?

First and foremost-- a lopsided win.  No offense, YSU, but you suck and anything less will be a disappointment.   Oh look, I got ear muffs for Christmas!  Might come in handy in November, but we don't need those on this particular weekend.  Sagarin ranks PSU at #10 in the country. YSU is #150. Nuff said.

I want to see all three QBs look good.  Maybe one to look great.  I don't care who.  I don't care who starts.  I don't care if they are all listed as equal on the depth chart.  I want Alabama wondering which weapon will take the field on 9-11.  And gosh darn it, I want some weapons.  No BB guns.  Or fart dart guns.  I want to see cannons and laser guided missiles for crying out loud.  Shock and Awe--not shucks and Aww.

I know its the first game, but let's limit the stupid mistakes and turnovers.  Yeah, one school of thought is to get them over with--the law of averages argues that a team will have so many in a given year anyway.  May as well have them when the don't hurt you.  I've never been one to pay that much attention to the laws of physics or statistics.  Damn the torpedoes--full speed ahead.  Play a lights out game that leaves the Tide sleepless in Tuscaloosa.

I don't want to see any injuries.  Unless of course it's the stupid red hat guy who keeps calling TV timeouts.  I kind of hope he trips over his communication cable and is unable to stop play the entire game.  I'm not evil--I'm not asking for a permanent disability.  Just temporary enough to get this scrimmage over and get back to the tailgate.  Seriously, in this day and age of digital HDTV and technology, is it really necessary to stop play?  Why not just tape delay live play for the commercials, and edit out time in the huddle, etc. to catch up when there is no TO called by the teams?

I'd like to see Joe trot out on the field with the team.  I am so sick of all the doom and gloom.  It seems half the sportswriters in this country have already dug the man's grave.  Give 'em hell Joe!

Finally, good weather.  I'd hate to have to use the climate as an excuse for why we had  a bad outing against the Penguins.  Penguins play hockey.  Not football.

GO STATE!  BEAT PENGUINS!

Penn State Pigskin Prognostication

In another blog in another galaxy long, long ago, before Dick Foust and the Clown Wars, I prefaced each season with a countdown from the eastiest game for Penn State to win, to the the game I felt would be the toughest.  I tried to provide some insightful commentary and statistics, such as the number of returning players, type of offensive vs. defensive matchups and the like.  Hey, if you want that crap, go to ESPN.com.

I'm not going to do that this year.  Perhaps I am jaded by Penn State's STEP program that is seeking to separate me from the only seats I have ever sat in in Beaver Stadium.  Perhaps I am getting too old for this crap.

Whatever the reason, I'm going to breakdown the season in one long blog entry and you can just live with that.  No suspense of counting through the games, wondering if the next team toughest team will be Minnesota or Michigan State.  Who really cares anyway?  If you want suspense, rent a movie.  Maybe something by Stephen King.

As I see it, this season breaks down into three basic categories:  games we should definitely win, games that might go either way, and games we will likely lose.  It is this last category that really kept me from running my usual countdown.  I realized as I started organizing my list, there were some games that I simply couldn't see us winning.  And if you don't know me or follow my blog, you may wonder why this is significant.  I'll be happy to tell you.

I look at the world with blue-tinted lenses.  Probably ninety percent of the clothing I own is blue or white or has some PSU logo on it.  I am surrounded by thousands of dollars of Penn State collectibles in my office.  I have been the definition of homer for years.  I am generally the eternal optimist, and I am more likely to predict an undefeated season that not.  I am more quick to blame bad calls and lousy weather for a loss, than admitting that the other team was better.

But despite a lot of talent on this team, and pretty good recruiting years that give us some depth, I am not overly optimistic about this season.  And for the first time in a long time, I simply can't convince myself that we can win or compete in some of these games.  Jaded?  Disappointed?  Disillusioned?  Disenfranchised?  Too much blue Kool Aid?  Not enough alcohol?  Irritable bowel syndrome?  I DON'T KNOW.

So here we go . . .

Games we should win:  YSU, Kent State, Temple and Indiana.  Of this group, Temple and Indiana are the most likely to pull off an upset--the other two would be an apocalypse of Toledo-like proportions and likely plunge us into another dark age.  Can Temple or Indana pull this off?

No.  Don't even think about it.  Both will be home games, albeit Indiana will be played at Fed-Ex Field, but for all intents and purposes, it will be a home game.  Indiana fans don't fill their own stadium, let alone travel well.  While neither opponent will be as bad as they have been in the past, neither one has shown me that the future will be any different.

Which brings us to games that could go either way:  THEM, Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan State, Northwestern.  In my heart, I'd like to declare all these wins, but any of these teams on any given Saturday, can jump up and bite you in the Lion's tail.

Illinois will likely be rebuilding, but what exactly are they rebuilding?  Don't you have to have had something built to rebuild?  Which begs the question . . . can the Wolverines rebuild?  Rich Rod is under fire.  He will have more experience at QB, but will that be enough?  He has yet to demonstrate that his offense which was so successful in the Big East can work in the Big Ten.  Sports Illustrated picks THEM to finish 2-6 in the Big Ten and 5-7 overall.  Is a bowl-less third straight year in the cards?  But I have seen us lose to that team when we had the better team but got out-coached, out-played and out-refereed, so I can't possibly assume this is a win.

Penn State will likely face three teams in the Top 10, all on the road.  We will have an inexperienced QB no matter who gets the job.  I have seen Paterno's gameplans for big games on the road and I just forsee gloom and doom no matter where I look.  Will he let an inexperienced QB throw downfield against Bama in the second game of the season, risking shaking his confidence and --God forbid-- risking making a mistake?  If you think he will, then it will be a change form the last forty five years.  Expect lots of runs up the middle against a nine man front.  A few quick out passes for a couple yards.  QB draws on the 3rd and long.  Punt the ball and hope your defense can create some points.  And if we have to depend on running the ball against a defense like Bama--on the road--this game could get ugly.  Think OSU vs USC at the Coliseum a couple years ago.

Seriously, when was the last time Penn State defeated a higher ranked opponent on the road?  Technically, I think it was Wisconsin in 2002, when we won 34-31 in Madison.  We were ranked 20th and they were 19th.  Woo Hoo!  (We also beat #17 Tennessee in the bowl in 2006 and LSU was ranked ahead of us in the BCS but not the AP poll last year.)  But these are not the upsets I am talking about. 

Arizona 1999?  We were ranked 3rd and they were fourth--and it was a home game.    Miami (FL) in 1999?  They were #8--but we were #3.  Not exactly an upset there, although we barely squeaked out the win.  We beat USC at East Rutherford to open the 1996 season.  We were #11 and they were #7.  We're back 14 years now.  Hardly a blink for Paterno, though.

We beat THEM in Ann Arbor in 1994 when they were ranked 5th, but we were 3rd.  Not an upset, but I don't remember who was favored in that game. 

Just looking back, I went to 1990 to find an upset win over the Irish, 24-21.  The Irish were #1 and we were at #18.  Twenty years since we defeated a highly ranked team on the road when we weren't ranked higher.  Heck, we've lost more games on the road (and at home) as the favored team in that time span.  We are a team that generally wins the games we're supposed to, and conversely we lose the games we are expected to, but we manage to drop a few that perhaps we should have won.

I'll be honest, I thought I'd have to go back to the 80's to find a quality upset.  I was close.

The one bright spot I see is that playing this level of competition early in the season has to be good for us.  I fear the past few years we have eaten a lot of cupcakes early on and perhaps these 18-22 year old kids have gotten a little over confident.  Then, when we hit Big Ten play, reality comes crashing in.  Maybe we'll be better prepared for conference play with an early wake-up call in Tuscaloosa.

We've lost like the last ninety games against !*w@. OK, I exaggerate.  But I see nothing to indicate that this will change.  Sure, we can always hope.  We have out tradition.  We have the drum major flip.  We have more national titles.  (They have one in 1958 by the Football Writers Association of America--LSU was #1 in the AP poll.)  I think we have better facilities including a larger stadium--but this is on the road.  Our recruiting rankings are usually higher.  Well, to hell with all those facts and statistics.  The Hawkeyes own us and this season will be same old same old.  I'm getting older and more jaded as I type this tripe.

And then there's that team in Columbus.  Yes, we actually won there two years ago, but don't expect lightning to strike twice.  I hate Terrell Pryor but the kid can play football.  Don't get me wrong--he's not a great QB, but he has a program around him that is built to reload and continue winning.

The optimist in me picks 9-3 with a bowl win.  (This is my official prediction.)

Best Case Scenario:  We upset one of those 3 teams on the road.  Ten wins and we might get over-matched in a bowl game.  So the best case scenario is 10-3 like the optimistic one?  I told you I wasn't very optimistic.

Worst Case Scenario:  We lose to THEM.  Or Temple.  Come on, anything less than 8 wins is going to be disappointing.  Demoralization at the hand of Bama, struggles against the like of Temple or Indiana, inexperienced QB mistakes or worse yet shuffling QBs back and forth so there is no offensive consistency . . . 5-7 is not out of the realm of believability.  (In the Big East, we might be undefeated.)

Various other asundry predictions:

• Royster breaks the record for most yards.  OK, that's not a difficult prediction since he's only 481 yards away from the mark.
• Kevin Newsome will start the season as our QB.  I don't think he will be the starter at the end.  I'll leave it at that.
• Our defense will be good enough to keep us in most games, the prime exception will be Alabama, where I think we lose by double digits.  Maybe more than 20 points.
• Special teams will be awful.  Again, not a difficult presumption given the steady decline in the past decade or so.
• This will not be Paterno's last year.  I seriously doubt next year will be his last either.  Hard to tell.  Always in motion the future is.
• This may be mine depending on how badly PSU screws me over with this ticket issue.
• Dick Foust will have a mental breakdown trying to find my new email address so he can stalk me again.

And that's a wrap.