Foe Pause: Doing the Hoke-y Pokey Edition

THEM.

As in The-M.  A big block letter, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.  (Apologies to William Shakespeare and The Nittany Turkey.)

Since entering the Big Ten, it has been us against THEM.  In their first match-up at Beaver stadium, the Lions were penalized for "crowd noise."  Are you kidding me????  This was before Guido D'Elia and piped in music, mind you.  And it only went down hill from there.

A bad call on Tony Johnson in 2002.  (Replay appeared the next season, I believe.)

Two seconds and the infamous heel-toe in 2005.

At one point, they defeated Penn State 9 consecutive times over 11 seasons (as they rotated off the schedule for two years.)  They still lead the all-time series 7-10, but Penn State has won the last four meetings, and has not lost to THEM since 2007.

Ann Arbor University is still the only Division I school that I know of that honored a retiring referee, Dick Honig, who coincidentally has/had a shrine to UM in his office.

We could go on and on, but rehashing the past doesn't affect the match-up this weekend between these two traditional powerhouses.  There is no Lloyd Carr or Joe Paterno on the sideline.  No Chad Henne or Mario Manningham.  No Daryll Clark or Matt McGloin either.

Penn State opened as a two point favorite, but the line has fluctuated since then, with THEM being a two-point fave at one point, but currently nursing a one point favorite at home as of the time I type this.  The oddshark power ratings have PSU at 37 and the wolverines at 69.  They still have PSU as a two-point favorite.

The outcome of this game will hinge on the answers to the following questions:

1) Can Hoke save his job, and does he think by winning, that will change the outcome?  Let's face it, if Hoke has given up, all bets are off.

2)  Can Penn State rebound from the loss to Northwestern, and show improvement on the offensive line?  Even a modicum of improvement will go a long way.

3)  Can Gardner play without being a turn-over machine?

4)  Can Hackenberg regain his confidence?

Here is the wolverines season in a nutshell:

They avenged their loss to Appalachian State in the home opener, defeating the Mountaineers 52-14.  Of course, Appalachian State is only 1-4 this season so far, while the 2007 unit that upset THEM in Ann Arbor went on to a 13-2 record and won the FCS Championship that year.  Interesting that although Appalachian State beat THEM in 2007, the wolverines still managed to beat us.  This year, THEM won the Appalachian State game . . . does that bode a WIN for us?

Unfortunately for wolverine fans, that one game was not a season.  Any good feelings were gone the next week as the Irish drubbed the wolverines 31-0.

Miami (OH) gave the wolverines another chance to feel good about themselves, and they beat the Redhawks 34-10.  Of course, the Redhawks are now 1-5 on the season.

THEM then lost to Utah in a rain-delayed game, 26-10.

Minnesota then spoiled the conference opener in Ann Arbor, handing the Brady Hokies a 30-14 loss.

And last week, the mighty Scarlet Knights of New Jersey defeated the wolverines 26-24 in Piscataway.  In case you forgot, or Brady Hoke played you with a concussion, PSU beat Rutgers on the same field 13-10.

So at 2-4, and accusations of playing a player with a concussion, the wolverines are a team in apparent disarray.  The opponents they are victorious over are a combined 2-9 (0.182).  Contrast that to Penn State, whose defeated opponents are 10-11 (0.476) and is skewed lower because UMass is 0-6!  UCF is currently losing to BYU 24-17 in the third quarter.

But a team in disarray can be a dangerous beast.  Hoke has nothing to lose at this point.  His job is in all likelihood lost, unless he can somehow figure out a way to beat Ohio State and/or win the Big Ten title.  Neither are likely, and the issue isn't if he will be fired, but when.

We cannot discount the referine factor.

This game will be anything but a cakewalk, but I hope that Penn State learned something from the loss to NW.  Hopefully they answer that wake up call with some inspired play on Saturday.

I predict a Penn State win, 27-20 with the defense making a stand late in the game to seal the victory.  But I have been wrong before.

In the Big Ten:

Maryland, Rutgers, Ohio State, and Nebraska are off.

Michigan State takes on Purdue in West Lafayette.  GO SPARTANS!

Indiana travels to Iowa to take on the Hawkeyes.  GO HOOSIERS!

The Illini travel to Madison to take on the Badgers.  ON WISCONSIN!

Northwestern travels to Minnesota to attack the gophers.  GO WILDCATS!

In games featuring past opponents:

UCF is taking on BYU tonight.  GO KNIGHTS!

UMass looks for their first win against Kent State, which happens to be looking for their first win.  Good luck with that guys!  GO MINUTEMEN!

Akron takes on Miami (OH).  GO ZIPS!

GO STATE!  BEAT THEM!

Foe Pause: Catfight Edition

The Northwestern Wildcan'ts are coming to Beaver Stadium, assuming that their flight wasn't cancelled in Chicago.  If it isn't a volcano, it's a fire at a radar facility.

Northwestern is an unimpressive 2-3, but there are those that would argue Penn State's 4-0 record is equally without awe.  I don't know about you, but wins and undefeatedness trumps any lame attempt to compare Cal to Rutgers or Northern Illinois to UCF.

The betting line is 10.5 in favor of the home team.

Penn State pwns the all-time record between these academic institutions with a 13-3 advantage.  (This is obviously a rivalry game!)  It is HOMECOMING for the PSU faithful.  The Lions are 4-0 and looking to take one more step closer to bowl eligibility.

So it doesn't really matter if the Wildcat's show up?  Well, I wouldn't go that far.  Our offensive line still has some proving to do.  Our running game, which hinges on the aforementioned offensive line and its success therein, has yet to prove consistency (other than being consistently non-existent.)  Hack might have a great day.  He might not.  We won't know until about 12:15 tomorrow, or maybe not even until the fourth quarter, say 2:45 give a timeout or two.

The last game versus the men in purple was in Bill O'Brien's first year.  It was also homecoming.  The Lion's trailed by 11 at one point, but scored 22 unanswered points, including a two-point conversion, to win 39-28 in the fourth quarter.  Interestingly, the Wildcan'ts were 5-0 that season going into this game.  It is also the game where Pat Fitzgerald, in a decidedly un-Fitzgerald like moment, mocked Bill O'Brien who was chewing out the refs over a bad PI call, while assistant coaches and players taunted the Beaver Stadium crowd who were cheering The Chin's assault on the myopic refs.  It was not their finest moment, nor their finest game--the Wildcan'ts that is.

So what do we know of this foe?

That just about says it all.

Northwestern is a private institution of higher learning in Evanston, Ill.  Now we could argue until we're purple in the face as to whether it was smart to build anything in Evanston, but it really won't get us anywhere, especially if the planes are still grounded at O'Hare.

Most learned people would agree, that northwestern is a compass direction, not a school.  Compasses were around before colleges.  Just sayin . . .

Their school motto is: Quaecumque sunt vera   which means something in Latin.  (I think it might mean compass for a school.)  They say it means "whatsoever things are true," but who really knows, since Latin hasn't been used as a legitimate language since the Roman Empire.  Worked out well for them, didn't it?

Among their many famous Alumni, is Charlton Heston.  Can any one forget this scene:

In the Big Ten this week:

Michigan State takes on Wyoming.  GO SPARTANS!

THEM opens as an 8.5 point favorite over the gophers.  GO MINNESOTA!  (even though a win by THEM helps our strength of schedule.  I'd also rather the wolverines not have any confidence coming into our match-up if its all the same to you.)

The Hoosiers, coming off an upset of Missouri, are favored by 3 over the Terps.  GO INDIANA!

The Badgers are 33 point favorites over South Florida.  Guess we'll root for Bucky this time!

Rutgers hosts Tulane and is favored by 11.5 points.  Don't like Rutgers, but strength of schedule, baby!  GO KNIGHTS!

Iowa is favored by 13.5 over Purdue.  We don't play either one.  Flip a coin and root for whomever you wish!

The Buckeyes square off against Cincinnati.  GO BEARCATS!  (We screw the strength of schedule argument if it means seeing Urban Meyer lose.  That's priceless.)

The Huskers over the Illini.  GO BIG RED!

In games featuring past opponents:

UMass looks for their first win against Bowling Green.  GO MINUTEMEN!

Akron is a 17.5 point underdog to the panthers.  GO ZIPS!

Prediction:

Penn State wins, 24-10.

GO STATE!  BEAT CATS!

Foe Pause: Can you spare a minute, man? Edition

Penn State opened as a 30 point favorite against the Minutemen of UMass.  The line has dropped since then, but still is better than a 4 TD differential.

In researching this week's foe, I learned something new.  UMass is a MAC team!  I did not know that!  I thought they were FCS, but apparently, they are one of the Big Boys now.  I did not get that Memo!  And they are coming to Beaver Stadium not to go all Appalachian State all over us, but to try and Holy Toledo us.

They look so lonely over there.  B.O. perhaps?

Some have called this a trap game.  Those same people have called the last three games "trap" games.  And Penn State is sitting pretty at 3-0, all footloose and sanction free.

Penn State has never played UMass in football before.  A virgin opponent!

The Minutemen hail from Foxborough, Massachusetts (Gillette Stadium) and are coached by Mark Whipple.  Whipple was a quarterback at Brown.  Who else do we know was a QB for Brown????  Thinking . . . thinking. . . . it'll come to me later.  Whipple was also a QB coach for the Steelers in 2004-6.  Prior to that he was head coach at UMass for 6 years, and has an overall record there as head coach of 49-29, including an 0-3 start to this season.

Please, Don't Squeeze my Team!

The Minutemen have actually been to two bowls.

They lost the 1964 Tangerine Bowl 14-13 to East Carolina, and won the 1972 Boardwalk Bowl over UC Davis 35-14.  Their relevance to modern football is quite apparent.

Statistically, according to ESPN, UMass is 80th in passing yards (224.0), 118th in rushing yards (82.3), 91st in points for (25.3) and 104th in points against (35.)

While the Penn State offense is struggling, the Minutemen have given up 35 points on average to teams like Colorado, BC (who just beat USC) and Vanderbilt (who is really struggling this year sans Franklin.)  UMass does not bring the hatred and passion that Rutgers showed last week, and no one will ever confuse this as a rivalry game.  No one should have confused last week's match-up as one either, but Rutgers is arguably a better team than UMass.

Penn State needs this game for the offensive line to gain some confidence.  It is a work in progress, but only UMass and Northwestern stand between THEM and Ohio State back to back, albeit both coming off bye weeks in October.

I look to see Penn State NOT STRUGGLE (did you hear that guys---no last minute antics to pull out a win this week, please, and for the love of God don't lose this game!) and use this game to tune up some weaknesses.  I hope our back-up QB gets some reps, because with Hack running for his life the past few games, he is one hit away from being on the injured reserved list.

However, looking at how the Minutemen have struggled to score, I think our defense has a chance to pitch a shut out.  So I think Penn State will win easily, but may be lucky to cover the spread.  Let's say 27-3.

WEEKLY GAME GUIDE:

In the Big Ten:

Michigan State takes on Eastern Michigan.  GO Spartans!

Illinois takes on Texas State.  GO BOBCATS!

Nebraska plays Miami (FL).  This should be a good game.  GO HUSKERS!

Indiana travels to Missouri.  Good luck with that.  We can root for the Hoosiers all we want, but I think we know who will win this game!

The Hawkeyes travel to Pittsburgh--GO HAWKS!

Northwestern tries to get a win against Western Illinois.  What the heck, let's root for the Wild-can'ts!

The Terps head to Syracuse--GO TERPS!

Rutgers tries to rebound against Navy.  GO MIDSHIPMEN!

Minnesota hosts San Jose State.  GO GOPHERS!

Purdue should be able to make it back to .500 with a win over Southern Illinois.

Utah comes to the Big House.  GO UTES!

And Wisconsin hosts Bowling Green.  GO BADGERS!

The Buckeyes are off this week, preparing for Cincinnati.

In games featuring past opponents:

UCF should win against Bethuse-Cookman.

Akron takes on Marshall.  GO ZIPS!

GO STATE!  BEAT UMASS!

Foe Pause: Knightly News Edition

With the lifting of the major NCAA sanctions this week, the fan excite-o-meter has gone from BLUE to SCARLET!

Penn State will be footloose and sanction free for the first time since 2011.

The betting line is 3 points, with the Lions favored to out-joust the Knights.

Penn State leads the all-time series 22-2, with the last meeting being the infamous 59-34 win at Giant Stadium where Mike McQueary audibled late in the game and threw a TD pass that made then head coach Doug Graber feel like Joe was running the score up on him.  The Scarlet Knights only wins came in 1988, a 21-16 game during Joe Paterno's first losing season of his career, and 1918 when Rutgers won 26-3.  Hugo Bezdek was the coach and Penn State played 4 games that season, going 1-2-1.

This is not the history of a rivalry.

Rutgers is 2-0 with a 41-38 win on the road over Washington State and a 38-25 victory over Howard.

So what else do we know about this school in New Jersey?

Ray Rice graduated from Rutgers.  Just throwing that out there.  Not Rutgers' fault.

Louis Freeh is a graduate of Rutgers.  Not Rutgers' fault.

Rutgers was originally chartered as Queen's College in 1766, making it the eighth oldest college in the United States.  The school was renamed Rutgers in 1825 when Colonel Henry Blake Rutgers donated enough money to get the school named after himself.

Rutgers is considered the Birthplace of College Football, as the first intercollegiate "football" game was won 6-4 by Rutgers over Princeton in 1869.  It was also the first game telegraphed.  It reportedly lasted six weeks,  when horseback riders were sent out carrying advertisements to the citizens of New Jersey during time outs.  This was the birth of the 30-hour time out.

This is their first year in the Big Ten conference.

I look to see a more focused Penn State team take the field against the Knights.  Franklin appears to be a very goal oriented individual, and the Lions now have something to play for.  And while a Final Four appearance is highly unlikely, a run at a Big Ten Title could be achievable.

Of course, that starts with a W Saturday night in prime time.

Unless Rutgers was sandbagging it against WSU and Howard, they do not appear to be defensively capable of holding the Hack Attack at bay.  But they are averaging 39.5 points per game themselves.  On paper, this could be a high scoring affair, but I suspect the Penn State Defense is the best defense they will face to date.

Prediction:  Penn State wins . . . 31-17.

GO STATE! BEAT KNIGHTS!

Dublin or Nothing

With the college football season already started, and Penn State's first game of the James Franklin Era literally hours away from kick-off, I realized that I have not officially prognosticated in public.

My emotions swing from 5-7 to 11-1.  There was that one moment when I toyed with the idea of predicting a 12-0 season (which flashed through my mind when I read that Braxton Miller was out for the season), but I am officially going to settle on 10-2.

Don't ask me why.  Don't ask me which two games I think we will lose.

There is no more merit in my forecast than any weatherman out there right now.

But with kick-off nearing in Dublin at Croke Park, I will predict a victory for the blue and white over George O'Leary's Golden Knights.

And here are my reasons, in no particular order.

1.  Lee Corso picked UCF to wax Penn State.
2.  No Bortles.
3.  James Franklin.
4.  Christian Hackenberg.
5.  Come on people, it's UCF.  Sure they went 12-1 last season, but this ain't Florida State.  I think people are underestimating how important Bortles was to the offense, and are over-estimating what kind of defense the Knights will have this year.
6.  James Franklin
7.  Clucko the Chicken picks Penn State.
8.  Five of six Harrisburg writers pick UCF
9.  James Franklin  Seriously.  This man is a dynamo.  And he brings with him a complete staff that he has already worked with and developed chemistry with.  THIS IS CRUCIAL.  This is not Bill O'Brien parachuting into a war zone with a rag tag team of old friends assembled at the last minute.  This is a well oiled machine that managed to post back to back 9 win seasons at Vanderbilt, a school that had not had a 9 win season since 1915.
10. George O'Leary, undefeated ND head coach, who will be toasted to no end at every pub in the country and pickled in free drinks by the time kick-off rolls around.
11.  Because WE ARE . . .

PENN STATE!

Weekly Game Day: O'Leary, O'Brien, O My! Edition

Penn State clings to about a five point favorite by the odds makers, when the Orlando Golden

Knights of UCF invade Beaver Stadium this Saturday at 6pm.

This will be an interesting test for a 2-0 Nittany Lion squad that has not really been challenged yet.  But this is still not the Knights of Columbus or the wolvereenies of Ann Arbor either.  This is a very winnable game.

Statistically, here are how the two teams match up (from the NCAA website):

		UCF		PSU
3rd Down Conversion Pct		24		123
3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense		54		16
4th Down Conversion Pct.				1
4th Down Conversion Pct. Defense		70
Fewest Penalties Per Game		11		30
Fewest Penalty Yards Per Game		10		29
First Downs Defense		20		11		20		11
First Downs Offense		67		67		67		67
Fumbles Lost		1		106
Fumbles Recovered		22		56
Kickoff Return Defense		57		100
Kickoff Returns		100		55
Net Punting		58		96
Pass Sacks Allowed		90		110
Passes Had Intercepted		1		95
Passes Intercepted		65		36
Passing Offense		42		24
Passing Yards Allowed		13		24
Passing Yards Per Completion		9		45
Punt Return defense		38		83
Punt Returns		30		22
Red Zone Defense		5		75
Red Zone Offense		44		1
Rushing Defense		16		8		16		8
Rushing Offense		68		73		68		73
Scoring Defense		4		20		4		20
Scoring Offense		38		53		38		53
Tackles for Loss Allowed		88		63
Team Pass Sacks		67		34
Team Passing Efficiency		11		36
Team Passing Efficiency Defense		45		16
Team Tackles for Loss		15		39
Time of Possession		40		58
Total Defense		7		10		7		10
Total Offense		59		45		59		45
Turnover Margin		20		113
Turnovers Gained		54		54
Turnovers Lost		1		113
Winning Percentage		1		1
Averages		35.00		49.77		34.88		35.88

As we can see, the Golden Knights have a decided edge in overall statistics, 35.92 to 51.08 for the average NCAA ranking in all these categories.

But wait just a minute.  Total Defense is about even.  PSU has a slight edge in Total Offense, and even better in passing offense.  We suck really bad in just about any turnover category, but we are ranked right there with UCF in turnovers gained.  Our third down percentage is dead last.  L-O-U-S-Y.  Yet, we score points and win games, so does that stat really matter?

If you look just at the major offensive and defensive stats, and pretty much ignore special teams, penalties and turnovers, you can see the two teams are pretty evenly matched.

It is pretty clear that PSU has to stop turning the ball over, and improve on third down conversions.  Do those two things, and throw in home field advantage, and PSU wins this in a nail biter. 

USA Today ranked all 125 teams preseason, with PSU at 37.  UCF was 42.  Both are 2-0.

You can't coach turnovers.  What will happen will happen.  But I think PSU will turn that around.  Special teams struggled early last season, and got better as the season went on.  I still worry about Ficken, but the young man has done nothing to suggest he can't get the job done.  Punting is always an adventure, but I will be surprised if the outcome of this game turns on a single punt or two.

Many people don't remember how often Michael Robinson turned the ball over during the early games of the 2005 season.  He practiced with a football covered in silk to try and train himself to hang onto the ball better.  And he did.  In the Ohio State game, it was the Buckeye fumble that sealed the game for Penn State.  Now this is not 2005.  UCF is not Ohio State, and Hackenberg is not Michael Robinson.  But my point is that teams that are turning the ball over, frequently correct that problem for no rhyme or reason.  Some continue to fumble things away.

I think Penn State wins and beats the spread.  That and a call to Geico can save you 15% on your car insurance.

In the Big Ten this week:

Minnesota takes on Western Illinois (NL.)  GO GOPHERS!

Illinois will play Washington at Soldier Field.  Washington is a 9.5 point favorite.  GO HUSKIES!

Nebraska is a 4.5 point favorite over UCLA at home.  GO HUSKERS!

Iowa is a 2.5 point favorite over cross state rival Iowa State.  GO HAWKS!

Indiana hosts Bowling Green and is favored by 2.5.  GO HOOSIERS!

Akron (37 point dogs) travels to the Big OutHouse to take on THEM.  Whatever.

The Buckeyes actual leave Columbus in September to play Cal.  (NL due to the status of Braxton.)  GO CAL!

The Spartans warm-up against Youngstown State, in prep for the Irish next week.  GO SPARTY!

Speaking of the Irish, they are favored over Purdue by 20.5.  GO BOILERS!

Northwestern is a 31 point favorite over Western Michigan.  GO CATS!

And Wisconsin travels to the desert to play ASU.  The Sun Devils are favored by 5.5.  I can see that happening.  GO DEVILS!

Maryland is a touchdown favorite over UConn.  GO TERPS!

Buttgers will mop up EMU, favored by 27.5 over our most recent opponent.  GO SCARLET KNIGHTS!

And in the GAME OF THE WEEK . . .

Johnny Football will host the Alabama Crimson Tide who are favored by 7.5.  Odds give a 30% chance that Johnny signs autographs during the game.  ROLL TIDE ROLL!

College Football is Back!

So the 2013 season opens with some great games today . . . Indiana taking on Indiana State, Minnesota against the Rebels of UNLV.

Well, that was exciting, wasn't it.

At least the title was exciting.

Minnesota is currently leading UNLV 30-13 in the second half.

In a slightly more interesting, but with no Big Ten implications game, South Carolina is rolling over UNC 27-10 late in the third quarter.  You would think UNC would have some kind of advantage, given that the NCAA refuses to punish them for anything.  Oh, well, The Ol' Ball Coach will punish them tonight.  But even God is helping out the Tar Holes, as lightning has delayed the inevitable.

And Penn State kicks off the season against Syracuse this Saturday at 3:30 at Met Life Stadium.  TV coverage will be ABC/ESPN 2.  The Lions are favored by 7.5 points.

The big question on everyone's mind is . . . .will the sanctions be reduced?  Well, perhaps it is, but the big question that everyone is waiting for an answer to is WHO will be the quarterback.  (I'm thinking it will be Fergusen, but I wouldn't be surprised if Hack leads the charge.)

QB controversy is nothing new for Penn State fans.  In fact, I think Paterno took a perverse joy in stringing the media along with his "the job is wide open" rhetoric that almost always ended up with the more senior signal caller taking the field.  I know.  Rob Bolden started as a true Frosh.  Yeah, that happened a lot.  Give me a break.

The one thing you could count on was that the guy taking the field in the first game was not necessarily the best QB on the bench.  Paterno loved leadership, loyalty and brains--not necessarily in that order.  Hence, guys like Michael Robinson saw their talent wasted until their senior seasons, leaving a wake of less-than-stellar signal callers in their wake.  Now that is not to say that MRob lacked loyalty, brains or leadership, but for whatever reason, those skills were not evident until he became a senior.    Don't expect me to make any sense this early in the season.

But I will tell you one thing about O'Brien.  I have complete confidence that he will pick the guy that is best for the job as a quarterback.  He may not be the best leader.  Or the most loyal guy.  Or the one that has the highest GPA.  But he will be a guy that knows the playbook and can get the job done.  Hack or Fergie--you will see some points scored.

The magic he worked with McGloin last season was just short of miraculous.  McGloin still had his weaknesses (no real long threat, and sometimes threw into bad coverage,) but O'Brien seemed to minimize those faults and use McGloin's talents to the max.  If he can do half that job with EITHER of these two quarterbacks, I don't think we'll have any problem at the QB position.

Depth will be the biggest concern, mostly because of the scholarship limits.  As such, injuries early on--and even down the stretch, could be a huge difference between 7-5 and 10-2.

You read that correctly.  TEN AND TWO.  That's my prediction for the season.  I see Syracuse, EMU, UCF, Kent State, Indiana,  Illinois, Minnesota, and Purdue as victories.  Maybe I'm just overconfident.  Maybe I've been drinking too much Sam Adams.  Indiana is actually getting better, but to make an argument for an upset here is to take a loser's perspective.  That's the kind of crazy talk that ends up getting inside your head.  You lose football games.  You get your girlfriend pregnant.  You lose the lottery.  You get an STD.  You should have gotten Direct TV instead of cable.

So stop thinking like that.  You're Penn freaking State for crying out loud.  Indiana has never beaten you and this is not going to be that year.  Period.  We are not going there.  Ain't nobody got time for that!  Minnesota?  Are you watching the UNLV game?  Seriously?  We could beat most of these teams with 55 scholarships and O'Brien blindfolded.

Which leaves THEM, Ohio State, Nebraska and Wisconsin.  The usual suspects, and Ohio State players are used to being suspects.  I'd love to see this team run the table, but I have not yet had that much to drink.  I don't think there's enough in the house for that.  So I compromised on two of the four, while most sportswriters and pundits are saying 8-4 and 9-3. 

Losers!

I actually would like to see us beat THEM and OSU, and drop the last two.  We could blame it on the season being too long and not enough depth.  But more likely, the wins, if they come, will be against THEM and Wisconsin, with heartbreaking losses to the Huskers and Buckeyes.

Personally, I don't care how you slice it, as long as we win two of those games.  Hell, I'd even give up one of the "sure" victories to win 3 of those games.  If a loss to Syracuse means we win all four, I'll dress up like a piece of fruit this Saturday and pray for a Syracuse win.  But that's just not the way this thing works.

And besides, I don't look good in orange.


GO STATE!  CRUSH ORANGE!

Statistically Speaking: Don't Badger Me Edition

Here are the NCAA rankings for Penn State and Wisconsin:

NCAA Stats Comparison
Category:	Penn St.	Wisconsin
Rushing	83	17
Passing Offense	34	110
Total Offense	48	83
Scoring Offense	56	67
Rushing Defense	23	9
Turnovers Gained	40	107
Passes Had Intercepted	18	9
Pass Defense	52	25
Net Punting	110	68
Punt Returns	87	52
Kickoff Returns	110	77
Turnover Margin	21	48
Fumbles Recovered	21	93
Passes Intercepted	64	97
Fumbles Lost	43	17
Turnovers Lost	16	6
Passing Efficiency	49	61
Pass Efficiency Defense	26	25
Total Defense	30	11
Scoring Defense	22	14
Fewest Penalties Per Game	46	5
Fewest Yards Penalized Per Game	58	9
Punt Return Yardage Defense	105	59
Kickoff Return Yardage Defense	72	28
Offense Third-down Efficiency	50	103
Offense Fourth-down Efficiency	48	56
Defense Third-down Efficiency	52	16
Defense Fourth-down Efficiency	22	92
Tackles for Loss	60	67
Offense Tackles for Loss	3	101
Pass Sacks	13	53
Pass Sacks Allowed	53	80
Time of Possession	30	6
First Downs	38	96
First Downs Allowed	27	7
Red Zone Efficiency	87	53
Red Zone Efficiency - Defense	10	113
Average NCAA Rank:	46.68	52.43
Weighted Avg. Rank:	46.17	44.83

The two teams are pretty evenly matched, but PSU has an edge straight up in all categories.  When you weight those categories (more emphasis for things like total defense and less emphasis for fewest penalties) then the Badgers emerge with a slight edge.  If the two teams play "their game" PSU will need to rely on some intangibles to win the game.

Both teams have good rushing defenses.  Penn State will need to keep Monte Ball from running down hill all day, and in particular, the fourth quarter.  Notice that Wisconsin is ranked higher nationally in time of possession.  The Lions will probably need to win that stat . . . if our defense is on the field a long time, the Wisconsin O-line will likely prevail late in the game.

Unfortunately for Penn State, Wisconsin leads just about every defensive category.  Their passing offense is 110th, but if the weather turns out to be as treacherous (cold, rainy, snowy) as I have heard predicted, this will favor the running game.

I do like the Red Zone defense numbers, with PSU ranked 10th and the Badgers at 113. If we can get the ball to the red zone, I think we prevail. Keep in mind that our red zone offensive performance includes the early games like Virginia where we really struggled to put any points on the board. I think we are actually better in the red zone now than the stats would show.

Penn State is between a 2.5 and 3 point favorite depending on the time of day you look.  Most odds makers and pundits claim a three point advantage for the home team.  Looks like Vegas thinks these two teams are pretty closely matched up. 

So what are the intangibles?  Neither team NEEDS to win.  If the Lions lose, the season is over.  The season is over if they win.  Win or lose, Wisconsin has already punched their tickets to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Title game and a possible Rose Bowl Berth.

Penn State's season is over regardless of the outcome.  They can play like there is no to,morrow, because, well, there isn't.  Wisconsin on the other hand, can't afford an injury to a quarterback or Monte Ball.  This isn't pro ball.  Those key players won't sit out because the playoff spot is assured.  And if Wisconsin loses the Title game, their record will determine how good of a consolation bowl they land in.

But this is senior day for a very special group of senior players.  Michael Mauti, the very special leader of that special group, will be side-lined with a knee injury.  Emotion will be running high.  That can be good and bad.  Emotion ran high in the opening game against the Bobcats, but spent itself out too quickly and wilted in the heat of a hot afternoon.  We don't need to worry about heat being a factor, but we don't want to crash and burn late in the afternoon on too much intensity too quickly.

This is where O'Brien needs help from his coordinators and assistants who have played the college game.  Motivating 18-22 year olds who are not being paid a salary in the millions is different than motivating an NFL team.  I have no doubt that creepy old Bret Bielema will have his team fired up.  Can we match and exceed -- and sustain --  that emotion?

The answer to that may determine the outcome of the game.

Let's go with PENN STATE 31 - WISCONSIN 27.

GO STATE!  BEAT BADGERS!

Statistically Speaking: Corn Field Edition

Looking at the NCAA stats for Penn State and Nebraska . . .

NCAA Stats Comparison
Category:	Penn St.	Nebraska
Rushing	85	6
Passing Offense	37	79
Total Offense	55	17
Scoring Offense	62	20
Rushing Defense	26	87
Turnovers Gained	42	72
Passes Had Intercepted	8	70
Pass Defense	43	5
Net Punting	118	78
Punt Returns	92	24
Kickoff Returns	113	63
Turnover Margin	14	106
Fumbles Recovered	20	53
Passes Intercepted	68	80
Fumbles Lost	20	116
Turnovers Lost	7	110
Passing Efficiency	57	33
Pass Efficiency Defense	22	8
Total Defense	26	31
Scoring Defense	14	54
Fewest Penalties Per Game	42	80
Fewest Yards Penalized Per Game	60	102
Punt Return Yardage Defense	115	103
Kickoff Return Yardage Defense	72	62
Offense Third-down Efficiency	49	43
Offense Fourth-down Efficiency	58	20
Defense Third-down Efficiency	53	37
Defense Fourth-down Efficiency	26	26
Tackles for Loss	72	31
Offense Tackles for Loss	1	51
Pass Sacks	27	20
Pass Sacks Allowed	35	69
Time of Possession	27	60
First Downs	36	21
First Downs Allowed	26	28
Red Zone Efficiency	89	28
Red Zone Efficiency - Defense	7	43
Average NCAA Rank:	46.59	52.32
Weighted Avg. Rank:	46.58	43.67

The weighted stats give extra "weight" to categories like total offense and total defense, while putting less emphasis on categories like Fewest Penalties per game. Straight up, PSU has about a 6 rank point edge over Big Red.  That disappears to a deficit when weighted.  Does that mean anything?  Probably no more than any other statistic you can throw out there.

I think the key match-up for us will be our rushing defense against their rushing defense.  Nebraska's ability to move the ball will be dependent on whether our offense can control the time of possession, whether we can force Martinez to pass (put them in third and long if possible) and whether Rex Burkhead is back and is back 100% or not.  In other words, keep the Big Red O off the field, and when they are out there, force them into passing situations.

Both teams are statistically similar in total defense and third down efficiency on offense.   I believe Penn State will have to be better on third downs than Nebraska to win this game, barring some big plays.  Better third down efficiency keeps drives alive, keeps their defense on the field, and wins time of possession.  You are also more likely to score if you control the ball longer.

This game may come down to some intangibles.  Obviously, the Huskers have the home field advantage and have not lost at home this season.  Yet.  They also have more to play for . . . a berth in the Big Ten Title game.  But, that may be to our advantage, as they also have more to lose than we do.  That could allow us to play looser and gamble more.  They may be more conservative and play tight.  Of course, I could be full of crap, and unfortunately, this latter scenario is more likely.

Let's go with Penn State 35 (all TDs, no FGs) and Nebrask 31.  Sounds like a plan?  And don't we love it when a plan comes together?

Weekly Game Guide: Feeling Corny? Edition

The under .500 Va Tech Chokies are down 13-10 to F$U in Blacksburg.  The Seminoles are favored by 13.5 points.  What the heck!  GO HOKIES!  Do the Hokie Pokie!

Penn State travels to Lincoln (the city, not the vampire hunter) to take on the Huskers.  Nebraska is favored by a TD.  Mark May picks Nebraska.  Nuff said.   GO STATE!  SHUCK the HUSKERS!

Is she feeling Corny?

This weekend in the Big Ten:

Wisconsin has a huge game against Indiana . . . in football.  Who would have ever thought that was even possible?  But with OSU and PSU locked out of the post season festivities, this game could determine who goes to Indy.  The Badgers are favored by 7.  With PSU out of the title picture, I'm fine with Indiana playing for a Big Ten title.  GO HOOSIERS!

The Northwestern Wildcats travel to Ann Arbor to face THEM.  The wolvereenies are favored by 9.5.  GO CATS!

Iowa is favored by 5 over Purdue.  Will there be any (Danny) Hope after this season?  This is a must win for the Boilers and their coach.  Iowa has been up and down all year.  GO BOILERS!

Minnesota is favored by 3.5 over Illinois.  I'm okay with that.  GO GOPHS!

Michigan state and Ohio State have byes.

In games of previous opponents:

Bowling Green handed the Bobcats their second loss of the season last night, winning 26-14.  How did we lose that game?  Oh, to be able to do that one over again!

Navy is favored by 2 over Troy.  GO NAVY!

Temple is an 8.5 dog to Cincinnati.  GO OWLS . . . but good luck with that!

Virginia is favored by 1 over Miami (FL).   Seriously?  Whatever.  GO CAVS!

In other games of remote interest:

Alabama will be tested by Texas A & M.  The Crimson Tide is favored by nearly two TDs.  Roll Tide Roll!

Can BC party like its 1993?  The Irish aren't ranked #1, but they are undefeated and favored by 19.  GO EAGLES!

K State is favored by 7 over TCU.  GO WILDCATS!

Oregon is favored by 28 over Cal. That's just fine.  We don't want anyone ahead of Notre Lame in the BCS standings to lose.  GO DUCKS!

Weekly Game Guide: Halloween Edition

It's Halloween night here in Central PA--or at least the night the little hoodlums are allowed to venture to my door in search of treats.

Clemson is taking on Wake Forest.  Guess I'll watch the Big Bang Theory tonight.

But there are some great games on tap this weekend . . .

PSU takes on OSU at Beaver Stadium to what will probably be a sell-out crowd.  The line has fluctuated from PSU favored by 3 to the Buckeyes favored by 1.  This won't be the usual 17-10 slugfest we have become accustomed to.  I look for a good bit of scoring, and for the PSU D to outperform the Bucks.  Penn State 31- OSU 17.  Two touchdowns.  You read it here first.

In the Big Ten:

Wisconsin is favored by 6 over the Spartans.  Sorry Sparty, but I gotta go with da Badgers on this one.  We play them and not you.  You are of no use to me now.  You blew it against THEM.  You are the weakest link!  Good Bye!  GO BADGERS!

Northwestern is favored by 5 over the Hawkeyes.  No brainer here.  GO WILDCATS!

Purdue is favored by 3 over Minnesota.  Sorry Gophers, but we don't play you, and a win by the Boilers may make them less desperate to beat us.  GO BOILERS!

Illinois is favored by 2 over the Hoosiers in the who cares game of the week.  But sooner or later, the Hoosiers are going to win a Big Ten game and I'd just as soon it not be against us.  GO HOOSIERS!

The Huskers are favored by 2 over THEM.  GO BIG RED!

In games featuring previous opponents:

Temple is a 7 point dog to Pitt.  GO OWLS!

Ohio is a 7 point favorite over Miami (OH).  GO BOBCATS!

Navy is a 3.5 dog to East Carolina.  I thought the Atlantic Ocean was East of Carolina.  Oh, Sweet Carolina (bom, bom, bom!)  GO MIDSHIPMEN!

Virginia's six game losing streak since "beating" Penn State takes a week off.

In other games:

Oklahoma takes on the Irish.  The only thing worse than PSU not going to a bowl game is ND in the national title game.  OK is a 12 point favorite.  GO SOONERS!

And I guess there are some other games as well.  Whatever.

"EYE"-ing Up the Bucks

Here are the NCAA stats for Penn State versus Ohio State.

The over-all stat average difference this week (43.43 vs. 54.97) is even greater than last week (46.92 vs. 52.14 for Iowa.)  And we all know how well that worked out for the Hawkeyes.  On paper, Penn State should have an easier time with the Buckeyes.

The strength of Ohio State is their offense, and this is primarily on the ground.  How much last week's injury to Braxton Miller will have an effect remains to be seen. 

I actually am liking this match-up.  We have the better passing offense, and they have a significantly worse pass defense.  Both teams are tough defensively in the red zone, and against the run.  Penn State's rank in red zone offense still includes early season struggles and a lot of missed field goals, so that stat is skewed.  In other words, I think we are a better red zone team now than we were in the first four games.

Ohio State also appears to be better at fourth down conversions, but they have only attempted 8 conversions, making 6.  Penn State, on the other hand, by virtue of no kicking threat, have tried on fourth down 23 times!  And many of those were fourth and longer than a yard or two--I suspect most of the Buckeye's conversion were on fourth and short.

We are still woefully weak in almost all special teams areas--punting, kick-offs and returns.  In a close game, special teams problems could be huge.  I don't expect a quick fix here, so we have to hope that the offense can score enough points and control the ball like they did against Iowa to keep the special teams element a non-factor in this game.

It will be key for Penn State to jump on top quickly--it will keep the crowd in the game and put the pressure on the Buckeyes to respond in a hostile environment.  It will also be key to limit the mistakes as much as possible--fumbles, returns for TDs, etc.

I also fear the referees.  Neither of these teams is going to the post-season.  The outcome means nothing in terms of Big Ten representation in the bowl season.  But the Buckeyes are ranked in the Top 10, and one of only two Big Ten teams in the AP poll (THEM is ranked 20th, but may lose on the road to Nebraska this weekend.)  Thus, in the eyes of the conference, it is essential that the Buckeyes prevail.  Yeah, there's replay, if the Bucks don't line up faster than an offensive lineman at an all you can eat buffet and run a play before it can be reviewed.  Mark my words--the calls on the field will go in Ohio State's favor if there is any question, and we can only pray that instant replay will right the wrong. 

Check out the rankings for fewest penalties . . . PSU is 19th while the Bucks are 96th.  The actual numbers are 4.57 penalties per game for Penn State and 7.5 per game for the Bucks.  I will be more than surprised if those numbers aren't reversed Saturday.

But, it's not like this Penn State team hasn't faced and over come adversity this season.

Saturday is just one more test.  One more game.  One Team.  Another win.

"EYE"-ing up the Hawks

Iowa has inched up to a three point favorite for the upcoming prime time clash in Iowa City Saturday night.  Why?  I have no idea.  So let's explore this thing called the Iowa Hawkeyes.

Here is their season to date. 

They are 4-2 with uninspired losses to teams they probably should have beaten or would normally, in a season not known as 2012, have beaten.  In that respect, they are not unlike the Nittany Lions, although one might be able to spend some quality time arguing whether Ohio and Virginia are higher quality losses than Iowa State and Central Michigan.  Their marquee victory, last weeks double OT tilt over the Spartans, is probably not any more significant than Penn State's come from behind win over Northwestern.  MSU obviously started the season ranked and even made it into the top 10 before watching thie season crash and burn with losses to ND, OSU and Iowa.  Northwestern has a better record, but not the strength of schedule that the Spartans boast.

So let's just call the 4-2 seasons between Penn State and Iowa a tie.  Let's look at some stats, shall we?  I post the NCAA stats for these two teams in table form, with blue indicating an edge for PSU and yellow an advantage for the Hawks.

As you can see, PSU has a slight edge over all.  There are 19 blue categories and 17 yellow ones.  It's like a damned Electoral College map of the US.  Turnover margin remained neutral.

Neither offense is prolific.  Neither defense is oppressive.

The three point spread basically amounts to home field advantage as the odds makers seem to think this is a pretty closely matched game.

In the end, this may come down to intangibles. 

The overall record, not taking into account any vacations, is 12-12.  Penn state won the last meeting in State College last year, 13-3.

Since 2000, the Lions have beaten Iowa only twice (2007, 2011) and have had such monumentally CRapp-tastic(*) efforts as a 6-4 loss in 2004 and an epic fail in 2008 when we were ranked 3rd behind the guidance of Daryll Clark.  With a few exceptions, these match-ups tend to be low scoring, defensive struggles, or more correctly, games where the offenses struggle.

But this is not Joe Paterno's Nittany Lions anymore.  This is O'Brien's Lions, and is a much different creature than Captain Kirk has faced before.

The Lions are on a roll, winning four in a row.  I feel they have shown improvement each week, with the exception of special teams, and it has been a long time since I've been able to say that about a Penn State team.  I have only been blogging since the mid-nineties, and I don't think we've ever seen a team continue to develop game to game like we have seen this season.

And while a new coach like O'Brien adds a degree of uncertainty to the mix (and certainly that is an advantage offensively), given that Ferentz and Co. have to actually look at game tape this year, we must keep in mind that the converse is true as well.  O'Brien has probably never given Iowa a thought before this past week.  Why would he?  He was too busy trying to prepare for the Steelers and the Ravens, although I suspect Hawkeye tastes much like Raven, if prepared properly.  And in a certain light, those Hawkeye uniforms look like Steelers.  I hope he doesn't have bad flashbacks!

In fact, what O'Brien has achieved is phenomenal.  How many teams would be 6-2 with a new coach, new system, NCAA sanctions, and losing 10-11 players before the season starts, especially at key positions such as starting RB, WR and place kicker?  NOT MANY.  At any level of play.

Penn State has not won at Iowa City since 1999.  But this weekend, the Lions are going to party like it's 1999.  I think we will see an inspired game plan that old Ferentz is unaccustomed to.  I think the Iowa D will be exposed just as we exposed the supposedly good front line of the Illini.  Mark Weisman is listed on ESPN as doubtful.  The bye week gives us a chance to nurse some injuries and to continue to innovate on offense.  Have you noticed that we see new plays each game?  I know!  What is up with that!?

That said, it will be a cold October night in Iowa.  Last time, we didn't bring the heaters.  I hope to God we bring the heaters.  No need to give your opponent any more advantage than they might already have.  I don't know if we would have won in 2008 with sideline heaters, but in my little blue and white world, I have convinced myself that we would have prevailed in that game.  But I digress.

It will be cold in Iowa.  At night.  Before a hostile, loud crowd.  Even with my Kool Aid drinking offensive wet dreams, I still think this will be a close, relatively low scoring affair.  That is just the nature of this particular beast.  I just hope it doesn't come down to a field goal!

Need a Blue and White verision of this!

GO STATE!  BEAT HAWKEYES!

(*) CRapp = Cedar Rapids (Iowa) App.

Weekly Game Guide: Bye Week Edition

Penn State has the week off.  I hope this goes well.  The last bye week Penn State had was the weekend of Nov. 5th--when the Grand Jury Presentment was "leaked" and Paterno was subsequently fired before the next home game.  This bye week HAS to be better.

Arizona State is taking on Colorado tonight.  Pick whomever you want in this one, for I care not.  (I'm actually watching the Steeler game and my beloved Steelers are down 16-10 at the half, so good mood and I are not in the same room right now.)

In the Big Ten:

The mighty (annoying) Buckeyes look to pound Indiana and are favored by 17.5.  Last week I said that Indiana was bound to win a conference game sooner or later and I'd rather they beat Michigan State than us.  Indiana almost upset the Spartans.  So, let's try again.  Indiana is bound to beat someone in the Big Ten.  It might as well be Ohio State.  GO HOOSIERS!

THEM is favored by 24.5 over Illinois.  I'll throw the Illini a bone.  GO POACHERS!

Northwestern ( favored by 3.5)  looks to rebound against Minnesota.  GO WILDCATS!

What is this?  Purdue is favored by two over Wisconsin?  Can that be?  We play both, and both are in our division, so in the great, grand scheme of things, it matters not.  GO BOILERS!

The Spartans are favored by 7.5 over our next opponent, Iowa.  GO HAWKEYES!  But don't get too confident!

Nebraska joins Penn State in the bye week. 

In games featuring past opponents:

Virginia is favored by 1 over Maryland.  GO CAVS!

Ohio is favored by 20 over Akron.  GO BOBCATS!

Connecticut is a 5.5 point favorite over Temple.  GO OWLS!

Navy is a two point dog in a Friday night game that does not feature Pitt.  GO NAVY!

In other games of interest:

The Irish are favored by 7 over Stanford.  GO TREE!

USC is favored by 13.5 over Washington.  GO HUSKIES!

Texas and Oklahoma play each other.  Oklahoma is a three point home favorite.  I don't care who wins, but Schadenfreude hopes the loss is because Brown drops a sure TD pass or Fera misses another kick.

Game Guide: John Paul Jones Edition

I have not yet begun . . . to pick who to root for in this week's games.  So I guess I'd better get started.

As you probably already know, Paul Jones joins Kevin Newsome and Rob Bolden as Penn State's most recent QB to leave the program.  Originally a walk-on, Matt McGloin continues to outlast his competition.

Many fans have noted the remarkable improvement in McGloin at the helm so far this season, albeit against less than top caliber opponents.  He certainly does look more poised and capable and indeed seems to improve with each and every game.  Is that his natural progression, or is it the coaching.  Perhaps it's the shoes?  But if this is what QB coaching can do, we can only wait in anticipation to see what they will mold future recruits into.

So Stanford and Washington are tied at 3.  I guess Washington is no USC.  I've got no problems with Stanford, but who wants to root for a tree?  (See what I did there?  Root.  Tree.)  Whatever.  GO HUSKIES!

Penn State takes on the Poachin' Illini on Saturday in Champaign.  The pesky poachers are 1.5 point favorites even as of this morning.   GO STATE!

In the Big Ten:

Minnesota opens as a 7 point prairie dog to Iowa.  We play Iowa, but not the goofy gophers.  Gotta go with the Hawkeyes on this one.  GO HAWKS!

Indiana gets to open its Big Ten season against the Wildcats of Northwestern.  The purple are favored by 13.5  GO WILDCATS!

Purdue is still out of conference and favored over Marshall by 15.  GO BOILERS!

The Spartans have angered the football Gods and must travel to Columbus to open the season against Pope Urban I.  Michigan State is favored by 2.5.  It would be better for Penn State if the Buckeyes win since they are in the Leaders Division, but it's never a bad thing when the Buckeyes lose.  And it's not like we can play for a championship or anything.  GO SPARTY!

And in the grandaddy of them all, the Badgers travel to Lincoln to take on the Cornhuskers.  Nebraska is favored by 12.5.  GO HUSKERS!

Denard Robinson has the week off.

Around the nation:

Texas is favored by 2.5 over Okie State.  Fera defected to Texas.  GO COWBOYS!

Ohio is favored over UMass by 25.  GO BOBCATS!

Navy takes on San Jose State, which is favored by 2.5.  GO MIDDIES!

Temple is off this week.

Quarterback wasn't in the cards for Paul Jones!

Penn State is Credible

This conclusion is drawn by Temple Football Forever.  Truth be told, there aren't many blogs about Temple football (and there is probably a really good reason for this.)  Doesn't forever seem like a terribly long time?  Almost reminds one of purgatory, only it lasts longer.  But I digress.

According to TFF:

Penn State is largely an outsider getting insider treatment. [from the Philadelphia media] 

I have a feeling Penn State will be an afterthought very soon, but the Lions' 34-7 win over a solid Navy program gave them some credibility that it did not have after losses to Ohio and Virginia. 

Penn State is credible now. 

I don't think they will be by the time the Owls next face them on Aug. 30, 2014. Two years of 15 scholarships will do that to a program. 

So this is the year to beat Penn State.

Get your after-thoughts here!  I would think that 2014 would be the year, since PSU will supposedly be less credible then, but I guess that won't be a marquee victory for the Hooters like this year should be.  Either way, I think the plan is to kick us when we're down.  Reading on confirms their evil plan--win now while we're on the way down, not after we've crashed at the bottom . . .

The Lions can still lose to Temple this year and finish with a respectable season in the Big 10.

Despite the defections, they have enough talent leftover to be dangerous the rest of the way.

More defections and lack of scholarships will take a larger toll in ensuing years.

The next time they lose to Temple, they will be struggling to 1- and 2-win seasons.

If the Owls want a win over Penn State to mean anything, they better take advantage of the opportunity now.

This is pretty heavy prognostication from the supporter of a team that just returned to the Big Least conference in time to celebrate its demise.  Temple is like the stranded castaway being saved by a boat that ultimately crashes on the reef as it leaves the island.  They'll be sitting in the dust watching the tail lights as Pitt and Syracuse move on as fast as they can get out of Dodge.  But do you see what I've done here again?  I've gone and digressed.

And don't think I didn't notice that little gem about PSU having a respectable season in the Big Ten even if they lose to Temple.  While Temple might be able to handle Indiana with no problem, I don't see any other Big Ten team that would consider the Mighty Owls a threat to their season.  If Penn State can't beat Temple, I don't think it follows that we could have a good Big Ten season.  If I can't beat my amateur neighbor at golf, I surely wouldn't have a good season on the tour against the likes of Tiger Woods if you catch my drift.

My faith in my football team is my weakness.  His overconfidence is his.

In his Monday post, he writes about their "secret weapons."

Temple travels to Penn State on Saturday afternoon (3:30, ABC Regional) and brings with it a couple of "secret" weapons in Kevin Newsome and Montel Harris. 

Secret to Temple fans because they only saw Harris play a couple of downs against Villanova and Newsome hasn't played a down yet on offense or defense. 

Both, though, are great athletes and potential playmakers who can make a difference against Penn State.

So that's where Newsome ended up.  I guess it was a secret.  Or I didn't care.  If he hasn't played defense since high school, I really can't say that I am concerned about him becoming an All-American safety by this Saturday.  In fact, that might work to our benefit.  Can they also convert a punter to defensive back?  But shhhh.  I'd keep that a secret too.

So did Penn State's win over a solid Navy team lend it credibility, or is that just rhetoric for "I'm worried about Temple having a chance now?"

Weekly Game Guide

Tonight's feature game is Rutgers v. South Florida.  So much for features.  Oooh, there are reruns of The Big Bang Theory!

Let's look ahead to this weekend's games, when real football is played.

Penn State takes on the Midshipman of Navy.  Now normally I do my best (and sometimes my best isn't good enough) to make fun of an upcoming opponent.  But this is NAVY.  These men are part of our armed forces.  I can't make fun of them.

But Army can.

Penn State is about a 6.5 point favorite at home against the Middies.  Navy's only game was a 50-10 drubbing by the Irish in Ireland.  Where else would the Irish be?

In that game, Navy was out-rushed by Notre Dame 293 yards to 149 yards.  The Irish almost doubled the yards per carry average of Navy.  While known for it's triple option running attack which can grind even quality opponents down, the Midshipmen passed for 192 yards, nearly matching Notre Dame's 197 yards in the game.  Of course, that stat may be skewed by the fact that Navy was so far behind and had to move the ball quickly to have any chance of staying in the game.



Can Goats even swim???

 Penn State is coming off an emotional loss to Virginia, and is still searching for it's first NCAA sanctioned win since 1999, not to mention Coach O'Brien's first victory.

I think PSU gets win #1 for the O'Brien.

In other games:

Can Arkansas recover from an embarrassing loss to La.-Monroe to match up with Alabama?  The Magic Eight Ball says doubtful.

Can La.-Monroe continue their winning ways against Auburn?  Ask again later.

Can Pitt beat Virginia Tech?  If they didn't look so bad in their first two game, we might give them a chance, but let's face it, this has woodshed beating written all over it.

Tennessee and Florida?  Odds makers have this a pick.  Game is at Tennessee, so I guess we gotta give the edge to the Volunteers.

Denard Robinson is favored over UMass by 45.  Don't expect UMass to go all App State over the wolverines. 

The Spartans are favored by 4 at home against the Irish.  GO SPARTY!

The Other Ohio

In past years, I have previewed the season as a countdown from the game I felt would be the easiest to win to the game that I felt we were most likely to lose, or the most difficult game to win.

But as I look at this year's schedule, and contemplate the team we have, I realized something crucial . . .


The Old Paterno playbook.

I have no idea what to expect from this team.

For the first time since I have been following Penn State football, Joe Paterno is not at the helm.  And while there were games he missed the past few years due to health issues (or being unceremoniously fired without due process) his fingerprints were always discernible on the game plan.

With Joe, there was a certain constancy that was on the one hand comforting, and on the other hand terribly frustrating.  There was always a quarterback controversy--you never knew for sure who was going to start.  O'Brien has eliminated that doubt.  Barring an injury, McGloin will start the game.  It's crazy shit.  The man picked a starting QB.  Before fall practice even began.  I know!  Can you imagine this?!

I think it is safe to assume that we are going to see a different kind of offense.  While that may not necessarily mean a pass happy, fun and gun, kind of up-tempo offense that scores oodles of points, it is going to be different than the stodgy, vanilla excuse for an offense that has mired Penn State teams down since Fran Ganter "resigned." 

I expect the defense to be pretty good and perhaps more aggressive than what we Penn State fans are accustomed to.  Even though Bradley is no longer the defensive brain, the heart of those defenses--the defensive line and linebackers--should be solid, though depth issues may become a problem.  But those two areas should be okay due to the retention of Vanderlinden and Johnson.

Our kicking game took a hit with the transfer of Fera, but special teams can only be an improvement, as they have been sorely lacking for the past, oh, two decades?  I think we pretty much brought up the rear in kick off returns the past few seasons.  But I don't see a dedicated special teams coach, and I am not sure who or how many coaches will be involved in that aspect.  I still think things have to be better in this department, but maybe that is just wishful thinking.

With these issues in mind, I realized the task of assigning priority to games on a countdown became an exercise in futility.  Without some specific knowledge of how we stack up against teams, it is very difficult to predict outcomes.  We could beat Ohio State and lose to Indiana.  It's going to be that kind of year, I'm afraid to say.  Probably not, but I can wishfully think so here.  Actually, if we are going to wishfully think anything, then we'll think undefeated season.

So with a new staff and a boatload of unfair sanctions, I decided not to present a countdown, but instead to preview each game in order.  We are going to take this season one game at a time.

First off, the Ohio Bobcats.

This is the game of Successors.  Frank Solich succeeded Tom Osborne.  Bill O'Brien succeeded you know who.  Of course, Frank was modestly successful and still got canned, and Ohio is where he fell.  The verdict on O'Brien may take years to determine.

Ohio is picked by the Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook to win the MAC.

Ohio has a young team coming off perhaps the school's best season ever in the modern age of football.  According to SB Nation:

Solich has built the Ohio program the way he learned to at Nebraska: stock up on locals, redshirt like crazy, and bring in just enough outsiders to make things interesting.

Ohio has won at least eight games in four of its last six seasons, and not only did it bring home its first ever bowl win last December (in dramatic fashion, no less), but it did so with a ridiculously young squad.

Matt Zemek breaks down the Bobcat team and concludes that returning junior QB Tettleton is a key.

Bringing Tettleton back is big for the Bobcats and head coach Frank Solich, who has never had as good of a returning starting quarterback in place during spring camp in his eight years in Athens, Ohio. Tettleton threw for over 3,000 yards and 28 touchdowns last season, and was second on the team in rushing in 2011. Despite all of this, the offense has some retooling to do in 2012. The Bobcats need to replace two wide recievers including LaVon Brazill, and need to place two tackles on the offensive line.

On the defensive side of the ball, Ohio's 4-3 front seven lacked a bit of toughness last season, unable to apply consistent pressure on the quarterback. The biggest question mark for the Bobcats is that for the first time in four years they are without a stud middle linebacker. They lost Noah Keller to graduation. Despite this, they still do return nine starters on defense, including the entire secondary. If Solich and his staff can find someone to plug in the gaps at the middle linebacker position, they should be in good shape to once again challenge for the top spot in the MAC and claim the East Division flag.

On special teams, consistent junior Matt Weller returns to handle placekicking duties. The Bobcats must find replacements on kick returns, at long snapper, and at punter this spring.

This could be a dangerous first opponent.  But when I look at the out of conference schedule, only Navy didn't go to a bowl game, and of the three schools playing in bowls last year, only Virginia lost.  I vacillate between us going 4-0 and 0-4. 
But the die-hard, Kool-Aid drinking fan in me insists that we win this opening game, which may feature one of the largest opening crowds since Arizona came to Beaver stadium in 1999.

The game is key for a variety of reasons.  First, it is Bill O'Brien's debut.  Secondly, the whole world will be watching to see what happens at Penn State in the after-math of the Jerry Sandusky scandal. This game could set the tone for the whole season. 

I think our guys are going to come out on that field, to a full or nearly full stadium of fans anxious to put the past nine months behind us and MOVE ON, and score a solid victory for the Blue and White.  A win will do wonders to ease the pain of this past off-season.  Erickson can even apologize afterward if he feels the need--and he will.  The players can't control the sanctions.  They can't control the media.  But they can control their own destiny. 



Bobcats Like to Crack Nuts!