Statistically Speaking: Corn Field Edition

Looking at the NCAA stats for Penn State and Nebraska . . .

NCAA Stats Comparison
Category:	Penn St.	Nebraska
Rushing	85	6
Passing Offense	37	79
Total Offense	55	17
Scoring Offense	62	20
Rushing Defense	26	87
Turnovers Gained	42	72
Passes Had Intercepted	8	70
Pass Defense	43	5
Net Punting	118	78
Punt Returns	92	24
Kickoff Returns	113	63
Turnover Margin	14	106
Fumbles Recovered	20	53
Passes Intercepted	68	80
Fumbles Lost	20	116
Turnovers Lost	7	110
Passing Efficiency	57	33
Pass Efficiency Defense	22	8
Total Defense	26	31
Scoring Defense	14	54
Fewest Penalties Per Game	42	80
Fewest Yards Penalized Per Game	60	102
Punt Return Yardage Defense	115	103
Kickoff Return Yardage Defense	72	62
Offense Third-down Efficiency	49	43
Offense Fourth-down Efficiency	58	20
Defense Third-down Efficiency	53	37
Defense Fourth-down Efficiency	26	26
Tackles for Loss	72	31
Offense Tackles for Loss	1	51
Pass Sacks	27	20
Pass Sacks Allowed	35	69
Time of Possession	27	60
First Downs	36	21
First Downs Allowed	26	28
Red Zone Efficiency	89	28
Red Zone Efficiency - Defense	7	43
Average NCAA Rank:	46.59	52.32
Weighted Avg. Rank:	46.58	43.67

The weighted stats give extra "weight" to categories like total offense and total defense, while putting less emphasis on categories like Fewest Penalties per game. Straight up, PSU has about a 6 rank point edge over Big Red.  That disappears to a deficit when weighted.  Does that mean anything?  Probably no more than any other statistic you can throw out there.

I think the key match-up for us will be our rushing defense against their rushing defense.  Nebraska's ability to move the ball will be dependent on whether our offense can control the time of possession, whether we can force Martinez to pass (put them in third and long if possible) and whether Rex Burkhead is back and is back 100% or not.  In other words, keep the Big Red O off the field, and when they are out there, force them into passing situations.

Both teams are statistically similar in total defense and third down efficiency on offense.   I believe Penn State will have to be better on third downs than Nebraska to win this game, barring some big plays.  Better third down efficiency keeps drives alive, keeps their defense on the field, and wins time of possession.  You are also more likely to score if you control the ball longer.

This game may come down to some intangibles.  Obviously, the Huskers have the home field advantage and have not lost at home this season.  Yet.  They also have more to play for . . . a berth in the Big Ten Title game.  But, that may be to our advantage, as they also have more to lose than we do.  That could allow us to play looser and gamble more.  They may be more conservative and play tight.  Of course, I could be full of crap, and unfortunately, this latter scenario is more likely.

Let's go with Penn State 35 (all TDs, no FGs) and Nebrask 31.  Sounds like a plan?  And don't we love it when a plan comes together?