Thursday, November 5, 2009

By The Numbers: Ohio State

From the NCAA statistics to date:

NCAA Stats Comparison
Category:Penn St.Ohio St.
Passing Offense3494
Total Offense2463
Scoring Offense3329
Rushing Defense56
Turnovers Gained346
Passes Had Intercepted4567
Pass Defense1214
Net Punting11435
Punt Returns10193
Kickoff Returns11019
Turnover Margin3414
Fumbles Recovered5524
Passes Intercepted303
Fumbles Lost2150
Turnovers Lost2668
Passing Efficiency2060
Pass Efficiency Defense68
Total Defense56
Scoring Defense16
Fewest Penalties Per Game515
Fewest Yards Penalized Per Game46
Punt Return Yardage Defense11319
Kickoff Return Yardage Defense7413
Offense Third-down Efficiency547
Offense Fourth-down Efficiency5577
Defense Third-down Efficiency1015
Defense Fourth-down Efficiency13108
Tackles for Loss246
Offense Tackles for Loss1252
Pass Sacks420
Pass Sacks Allowed1750
Time of Possession864
First Downs2167
First Downs Allowed811
Red Zone Efficiency30103
Red Zone Efficiency - Defense151
Average NCAA Rank:30.4139.41
Weighted Avg. Rank:26.7530.33

On paper, this is one of the closest games this year. In case you're wondering, Iowa has an average NCAA rank of 47.08 and a weighted rank of 39.75. Of course their dumb luck factor is off the freaking charts.

Defensively, these teams are mirror images. I'm not going to waste time picking that apart.

Offensively, Penn State has a slight edge, especially in passing, but Ohio State does well in terms of scoring offense. This is strange because they are extremely poor in red zone efficiency.

Turnover margin is close.

Penn State leads in tackles for loss, offense tackles for loss, sacks and sacks allowed.

Penn State is better at 3rd down conversions offensively, but the two teams are tough on the defensive side.

I predict a Penn State win and I think one of two scenarios will play out. One, the PSU crowd and D rattle Pryor into making mistakes. Penn State wins by 14 or more. If Pryor surprises me and actual plays QB instead of darting for the sideline or dribbling the football like he's playing hoops, then this game will be much, much closer--think FG or safety margin.

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