By The Numbers: Ohio State

From the NCAA statistics to date:



NCAA Stats Comparison

Category:	Penn St.	Ohio St.
Rushing	33	29
Passing Offense	34	94
Total Offense	24	63
Scoring Offense	33	29
Rushing Defense	5	6
Turnovers Gained	34	6
Passes Had Intercepted	45	67
Pass Defense	12	14
Net Punting	114	35
Punt Returns	101	93
Kickoff Returns	110	19
Turnover Margin	34	14
Fumbles Recovered	55	24
Passes Intercepted	30	3
Fumbles Lost	21	50
Turnovers Lost	26	68
Passing Efficiency	20	60
Pass Efficiency Defense	6	8
Total Defense	5	6
Scoring Defense	1	6
Fewest Penalties Per Game	5	15
Fewest Yards Penalized Per Game	4	6
Punt Return Yardage Defense	113	19
Kickoff Return Yardage Defense	74	13
Offense Third-down Efficiency	5	47
Offense Fourth-down Efficiency	55	77
Defense Third-down Efficiency	10	15
Defense Fourth-down Efficiency	13	108
Tackles for Loss	2	46
Offense Tackles for Loss	12	52
Pass Sacks	4	20
Pass Sacks Allowed	17	50
Time of Possession	8	64
First Downs	21	67
First Downs Allowed	8	11
Red Zone Efficiency	30	103
Red Zone Efficiency - Defense	1	51
Average NCAA Rank:	30.41	39.41
Weighted Avg. Rank:	26.75	30.33

On paper, this is one of the closest games this year. In case you're wondering, Iowa has an average NCAA rank of 47.08 and a weighted rank of 39.75. Of course their dumb luck factor is off the freaking charts.

Defensively, these teams are mirror images. I'm not going to waste time picking that apart.

Offensively, Penn State has a slight edge, especially in passing, but Ohio State does well in terms of scoring offense. This is strange because they are extremely poor in red zone efficiency.

Turnover margin is close.

Penn State leads in tackles for loss, offense tackles for loss, sacks and sacks allowed.

Penn State is better at 3rd down conversions offensively, but the two teams are tough on the defensive side.

I predict a Penn State win and I think one of two scenarios will play out. One, the PSU crowd and D rattle Pryor into making mistakes. Penn State wins by 14 or more. If Pryor surprises me and actual plays QB instead of darting for the sideline or dribbling the football like he's playing hoops, then this game will be much, much closer--think FG or safety margin.