By The Numbers: Michigan State

Here are the current NCAA rankings for Penn State and MSU:

NCAA Stats Comparison
Category:	Penn St.	Michigan St.
Rushing	41	67
Passing Offense	47	21
Total Offense	45	34
Scoring Offense	51	30
Rushing Defense	8	24
Turnovers Gained	56	109
Passes Had Intercepted	59	37
Pass Defense	17	94
Net Punting	114	48
Punt Returns	107	60
Kickoff Returns	113	7
Turnover Margin	61	88
Fumbles Recovered	69	69
Passes Intercepted	36	108
Fumbles Lost	31	49
Turnovers Lost	43	35
Passing Efficiency	36	18
Pass Efficiency Defense	16	79
Total Defense	9	50
Scoring Defense	4	56
Fewest Penalties Per Game	3	71
Fewest Yards Penalized Per Game	3	63
Punt Return Yardage Defense	117	59
Kickoff Return Yardage Defense	57	62
Offense Third-down Efficiency	4	70
Offense Fourth-down Efficiency	55	44
Defense Third-down Efficiency	16	90
Defense Fourth-down Efficiency	12	77
Tackles for Loss	7	72
Offense Tackles for Loss	10	25
Pass Sacks	9	19
Pass Sacks Allowed	18	18
Time of Possession	16	82
First Downs	44	42
First Downs Allowed	10	58
Red Zone Efficiency	28	35
Red Zone Efficiency - Defense	1	119
Average NCAA Rank:	37.11	56.46
Weighted Avg. Rank:	37.42	50.75

Once again, Penn State out-performs its opponent . . . ON PAPER.

Michigan State leads the usual categories . . . special teams. But defensively, the Spartans do not match up well. Note the marked disparity in Red Zone defense--PSU is the best in the country while MSU is one away from being worst. Of course, if we play on special teams like we did last week--the last two weeks--we probably won't have good enough field position to even get close enough to sniff the red zone.

The two offenses are comparable, but PSU has the defensive edge.

There's certainly no indication as the season has gone on that our special teams will improve, so I look for the Spartans to take advantage of field position and keep this game close. Penn State actually is ranked higher in turnover margin, albeit by a slim advantage.

The oddsmakers pick Penn State by 3.

Michigan State is the sixth most difficult team we have faced statistically (see chart below.) I do not include Akron since that was the first game of the season and no stats were available for comparison. These comparisons are based on the teams AT THE TIME WE PLAYED THEM--not current stats. There are no stats for Eastern Illinois either.

Opponent	NCAA Rank	PSU Rank	Delta
Ohio State	39.41	30.41	-9
Iowa	47.24	42.89	-4.35
Northwestern	52.43	32.49	-19.94
THEM	55.38	37.14	-18.24
Temple	56.19	45.49	-10.7
Michigan State	56.46	37.11	-19.35
Syracuse	59.57	37.16	-22.41
Indiana	63.49	34.7	-28.79
Minnesota	64.22	39.78	-24.44
Illinois	79.11	49.38	-29.73