Recruiting Success

Ever wonder just how worthwhile (or worthless) recruiting data are? Does having the #1 ranked recruiting class really predict how well a team will do?

To explore this fascinating issue (fascinating by virtue of the fact that no actual football is being played right now,) I looked at how the Rivals ranking of recruiting classes compared over a period of time (2002-2008.) Why did I choose that time span? Because that was the time span I could easily access the data for Rivals, which ranked all 119 Division 1A schools.

I then took each team's win loss record as a percentage, and ranked that.

Then I did a simple calculation, comparing the Rivals Rank to that of the Win Percentage Rank, by dividing the former by the latter. I originally dubbed this a rank ratio, but someone with higher math skills than mine suggested that a ratio is like 1:2 and that this is an "index." So be it. The Rank Index was born. A team that is ranked close to or at it's recruiting rank would have an index of 1 or close to it. The higher the number, the better a team/coach out performs it's recruiting rank. The lower the number, the more talent is being squandered, and/or the more a team's recruiting rank was over-rated.

Here are the results:

	Team	Win-Loss %	PCT Rank	Rivals Rank	Rank Index
1	Boise State	87.90	2	76	38.00
2	TCU	76.55	8	64	8.00
3	Utah	73.98	11	59	5.36
4	West Virginia	75.37	9	40	4.44
5	Hawaii	65.69	22	85	3.86
6	Bowling Green	61.14	30	106	3.53
7	Navy	60.07	35	119	3.40
8	Boston College	71.51	14	43	3.07
9	Louisville	67.67	18	53	2.94
10	Texas Tech	68.98	15	41	2.73
11	Texas	85.62	3	8	2.67
12	Wisconsin	68.33	16	42	2.63
13	Virginia Tech	74.49	10	26	2.60
14	Ohio State	85.16	4	10	2.50
15	Northern Illinois	57.14	46	109	2.37
16	Iowa	66.94	19	44	2.32
17	Fresno State	60.22	34	77	2.26
18	South Florida	61.69	28	63	2.25
19	Air Force	52.26	59	116	1.97
20	Brigham Young	59.52	36	66	1.83
21	Oregon State	62.39	27	49	1.81
22	Connecticut	57.32	45	81	1.80
23	Toledo	54.79	50	90	1.80
24	Florida Atlantic	49.57	66	118	1.79
25	Cincinnati	57.63	42	74	1.76
26	Nevada	52.84	56	94	1.68
27	New Mexico	53.31	55	89	1.62
28	Central Michigan	48.48	69	110	1.59
29	Miami (OH)	50.84	64	100	1.56
30	Tulsa	54.85	49	72	1.47
31	Southern Miss	58.82	39	57	1.46
32	Ball State	45.59	78	107	1.37
33	Georgia Tech	58.82	38	52	1.37
34	Wake Forest	53.94	52	68	1.31
35	Houston	52.47	58	75	1.29
36	Troy	52.54	57	73	1.28
37	UTEP	40.29	86	110	1.28
38	Penn State	63.62	24	30	1.25
39	Colorado State	46.26	75	93	1.24
40	La-Monroe	34.42	98	113	1.15
41	Louisiana Tech	44.99	80	92	1.15
42	San Jose State	39.97	87	100	1.15
43	Ohio	38.62	89	102	1.15
44	Western Mich	45.74	77	87	1.13
45	Marshall	48.24	71	80	1.13
46	La-Lafayette	39.18	88	98	1.11
47	Rice	38.59	90	99	1.10
48	New Mexico St	31.13	105	115	1.10
49	North Texas	36.75	95	104	1.09
50	Missouri	60.81	32	34	1.06
51	Arkansas State	43.82	82	86	1.05
52	California	66.50	21	22	1.05
53	Wyoming	38.53	91	95	1.04
54	Akron	45.25	79	82	1.04
55	East Carolina	40.71	84	87	1.04
56	Florida Intl	26.80	112	114	1.02
57	Mid Tenn State	40.81	83	84	1.01
58	Tulane	35.74	97	97	1.00
59	USC	90.11	1	1	1.00
60	Army	19.70	118	117	0.99
61	Memphis	47.99	72	71	0.99
62	Buffalo	22.77	115	112	0.97
63	Clemson	61.27	29	28	0.97
64	Kent	32.79	100	96	0.96
65	Purdue	54.13	51	48	0.94
66	Idaho	20.45	116	108	0.93
67	Eastern Michigan	27.06	111	103	0.93
68	Utah State	23.70	113	104	0.92
69	Oregon	63.45	25	23	0.92
70	Pitt	57.68	41	36	0.88
71	Washington St	48.96	68	58	0.85
72	Minnesota	51.92	60	51	0.85
73	Northwestern	47.44	73	62	0.85
74	Kansas State	53.85	53	45	0.85
75	UAB	37.45	92	78	0.85
76	Auburn	71.61	13	11	0.85
77	Oklahoma	81.89	5	4	0.80
78	Temple	20.45	116	90	0.78
79	Rutgers	50.34	65	50	0.77
80	Kansas	51.62	62	47	0.76
81	Maryland	60.48	33	25	0.76
82	SMU	23.48	114	83	0.73
83	UNLV	29.00	110	79	0.72
84	Central Florida	40.42	85	60	0.71
85	Vanderbilt	32.26	101	70	0.69
86	Indiana	32.26	101	69	0.68
87	Kentucky	44.86	81	55	0.68
88	San Diego State	33.40	99	67	0.68
89	Virginia	57.63	43	29	0.67
90	Oklahoma State	57.48	44	27	0.61
91	Iowa State	36.90	93	54	0.58
92	Arizona State	57.80	40	23	0.58
93	LSU	77.98	7	4	0.57
94	NC State	50.96	63	36	0.57
95	Baylor	30.63	108	61	0.56
96	Duke	16.99	119	65	0.55
97	Michigan State	48.34	70	38	0.54
98	Syracuse	31.06	106	56	0.53
99	Nebraska	59.18	37	18	0.49
100	Tennessee	63.31	26	12	0.46
101	Them	66.58	20	9	0.45
102	Stanford	31.39	104	46	0.44
103	Alabama	60.96	31	13	0.42
104	Colorado	46.55	74	31	0.42
105	Miami (FL)	68.04	17	7	0.41
106	Arkansas	55.71	48	19	0.40
107	Washington	29.08	109	39	0.36
108	Arizona	36.82	94	32	0.34
109	Illinois	31.86	103	35	0.34
110	Georgia	80.35	6	2	0.33
111	Notre Dame	57.05	47	15	0.32
112	UCLA	53.48	54	17	0.31
113	Mississippi State	30.87	107	33	0.31
114	Mississippi	46.00	76	20	0.26
115	Florida State	64.95	23	6	0.26
116	Florida	73.05	12	3	0.25
117	Texas A&M	49.08	67	16	0.24
118	South Carolina	51.66	61	14	0.23
119	North Carolina	36.71	96	21	0.22

What exactly can we glean from these numbers?

USC and Tulane pretty much perform as expected for their recruiting classes. For Tulane, that's not necessarily a plus. About half the teams perform better, and half perform worse.

Someone criticized the data by concluding that since Georgia and Florida were so low on the list, the data was useless. Au contraire. Keep in mind that both those schools have consistently recruited well, according to Rivals. It is impossible for USC to out-perform it's recruiting class, and for each team ranked high, it becomes very difficult to live up to expectations. What these numbers suggest is that Florida and Georgia are not performing as well as they are recruiting. In the case of Florida, it is not a matter of wins and losses or National Championships--the data indicate that they should be winning, and perhaps winning more than they are.

It also sugests that schools like Boise State, Utah and TCU are doing more with their talent than other schools, in terms of producing wins. Schools like Florida State are under-performing.

As I expected, PSU did not perform overly well--38th overall and fourth in the Big Ten. Here's how the conference fared:

	Big TEN	PCT	PCT Rank	Rivals	Index
12	Wisconsin	68.33	16	42	2.63
14	Ohio State	85.16	4	10	2.50
16	Iowa	66.94	19	44	2.32
38	Penn State	63.62	24	30	1.25
65	Purdue	54.13	51	48	0.94
72	Minnesota	51.92	60	51	0.85
73	Northwestern	47.44	73	62	0.85
86	Indiana	32.26	101	69	0.68
97	Michigan State	48.34	70	38	0.54
101	Them	66.58	20	9	0.45
109	Illinois	31.86	103	35	0.34

Another way to look at these numbers would be to examine just the numerical difference between a schools Rivals Rank versus its win-loss pct. rank (subtraction versus division.) In this case, teams with highly ranked recruiting classes aren't penalized as much for not producing winning seasons. Here's what that table looks like:

	Team	Win-Loss %	PCT Rank	Rivals Rank	Rank Index	Difference
1	Navy	60.07	35	119	3.40	84
2	Bowling Green	61.14	30	106	3.53	76
3	Boise State	87.90	2	76	38.00	74
4	Hawaii	65.69	22	85	3.86	63
5	Northern Illinois	57.14	46	109	2.37	63
6	Air Force	52.26	59	116	1.97	57
7	TCU	76.55	8	64	8.00	56
8	Florida Atlantic	49.57	66	118	1.79	52
9	Utah	73.98	11	59	5.36	48
10	Fresno State	60.22	34	77	2.26	43
11	Central Michigan	48.48	69	110	1.59	41
12	Toledo	54.79	50	90	1.80	40
13	Nevada	52.84	56	94	1.68	38
14	Connecticut	57.32	45	81	1.80	36
15	Miami (OH)	50.84	64	100	1.56	36
16	Louisville	67.67	18	53	2.94	35
17	South Florida	61.69	28	63	2.25	35
18	New Mexico	53.31	55	89	1.62	34
19	Cincinnati	57.63	42	74	1.76	32
20	West Virginia	75.37	9	40	4.44	31
21	Brigham Young	59.52	36	66	1.83	30
22	Ball State	45.59	78	107	1.37	29
23	Boston College	71.51	14	43	3.07	29
24	Texas Tech	68.98	15	41	2.73	26
25	Wisconsin	68.33	16	42	2.63	26
26	Iowa	66.94	19	44	2.32	25
27	UTEP	40.29	86	110	1.28	24
28	Tulsa	54.85	49	72	1.47	23
29	Oregon State	62.39	27	49	1.81	22
30	Colorado State	46.26	75	93	1.24	18
31	Southern Miss	58.82	39	57	1.46	18
32	Houston	52.47	58	75	1.29	17
33	Troy	52.54	57	73	1.28	16
34	Virginia Tech	74.49	10	26	2.60	16
35	Wake Forest	53.94	52	68	1.31	16
36	La-Monroe	34.42	98	113	1.15	15
37	Georgia Tech	58.82	38	52	1.37	14
38	Ohio	38.62	89	102	1.15	13
39	San Jose State	39.97	87	100	1.15	13
40	Louisiana Tech	44.99	80	92	1.15	12
41	La-Lafayette	39.18	88	98	1.11	10
42	New Mexico St	31.13	105	115	1.10	10
43	Western Mich	45.74	77	87	1.13	10
44	Marshall	48.24	71	80	1.13	9
45	North Texas	36.75	95	104	1.09	9
46	Rice	38.59	90	99	1.10	9
47	Ohio State	85.16	4	10	2.50	6
48	Penn State	63.62	24	30	1.25	6
49	Texas	85.62	3	8	2.67	5
50	Arkansas State	43.82	82	86	1.05	4
51	Wyoming	38.53	91	95	1.04	4
52	Akron	45.25	79	82	1.04	3
53	East Carolina	40.71	84	87	1.04	3
54	Florida Intl	26.80	112	114	1.02	2
55	Missouri	60.81	32	34	1.06	2
56	California	66.50	21	22	1.05	1
57	Mid Tenn State	40.81	83	84	1.01	1
58	Tulane	35.74	97	97	1.00	0
59	USC	90.11	1	1	1.00	0
60	Army	19.70	118	117	0.99	-1
61	Clemson	61.27	29	28	0.97	-1
62	Memphis	47.99	72	71	0.99	-1
63	Oklahoma	81.89	5	4	0.80	-1
64	Auburn	71.61	13	11	0.85	-2
65	Oregon	63.45	25	23	0.92	-2
66	Buffalo	22.77	115	112	0.97	-3
67	LSU	77.98	7	4	0.57	-3
68	Purdue	54.13	51	48	0.94	-3
69	Georgia	80.35	6	2	0.33	-4
70	Kent	32.79	100	96	0.96	-4
71	Pitt	57.68	41	36	0.88	-5
72	Eastern Michigan	27.06	111	103	0.93	-8
73	Idaho	20.45	116	108	0.93	-8
74	Kansas State	53.85	53	45	0.85	-8
75	Maryland	60.48	33	25	0.76	-8
76	Florida	73.05	12	3	0.25	-9
77	Minnesota	51.92	60	51	0.85	-9
78	Utah State	23.70	113	104	0.92	-9
79	Miami (FL)	68.04	17	7	0.41	-10
80	Washington St	48.96	68	58	0.85	-10
81	Northwestern	47.44	73	62	0.85	-11
82	Them	66.58	20	9	0.45	-11
83	Tennessee	63.31	26	12	0.46	-14
84	UAB	37.45	92	78	0.85	-14
85	Virginia	57.63	43	29	0.67	-14
86	Kansas	51.62	62	47	0.76	-15
87	Rutgers	50.34	65	50	0.77	-15
88	Arizona State	57.80	40	23	0.58	-17
89	Florida State	64.95	23	6	0.26	-17
90	Oklahoma State	57.48	44	27	0.61	-17
91	Alabama	60.96	31	13	0.42	-18
92	Nebraska	59.18	37	18	0.49	-19
93	Central Florida	40.42	85	60	0.71	-25
94	Kentucky	44.86	81	55	0.68	-26
95	Temple	20.45	116	90	0.78	-26
96	NC State	50.96	63	36	0.57	-27
97	Arkansas	55.71	48	19	0.40	-29
98	SMU	23.48	114	83	0.73	-31
99	UNLV	29.00	110	79	0.72	-31
100	Vanderbilt	32.26	101	70	0.69	-31
101	Indiana	32.26	101	69	0.68	-32
102	Michigan State	48.34	70	38	0.54	-32
103	Notre Dame	57.05	47	15	0.32	-32
104	San Diego State	33.40	99	67	0.68	-32
105	UCLA	53.48	54	17	0.31	-37
106	Iowa State	36.90	93	54	0.58	-39
107	Colorado	46.55	74	31	0.42	-43
108	Baylor	30.63	108	61	0.56	-47
109	South Carolina	51.66	61	14	0.23	-47
110	Syracuse	31.06	106	56	0.53	-50
111	Texas A&M	49.08	67	16	0.24	-51
112	Duke	16.99	119	65	0.55	-54
113	Mississippi	46.00	76	20	0.26	-56
114	Stanford	31.39	104	46	0.44	-58
115	Arizona	36.82	94	32	0.34	-62
116	Illinois	31.86	103	35	0.34	-68
117	Washington	29.08	109	39	0.36	-70
118	Mississippi State	30.87	107	33	0.31	-74
119	North Carolina	36.71	96	21	0.22	-75

USC and Tulane are 0. Schools like Florida and Georgia move up. North Carolina still pretty much sucks. The Big Ten looks like this:

	Team	Win-Loss %	PCT Rank	Rivals Rank	Rank Index	Difference
25	Wisconsin	68.33	16	42	2.63	26
26	Iowa	66.94	19	44	2.32	25
47	Ohio State	85.16	4	10	2.50	6
48	Penn State	63.62	24	30	1.25	6
68	Purdue	54.13	51	48	0.94	-3
77	Minnesota	51.92	60	51	0.85	-9
81	Northwestern	47.44	73	62	0.85	-11
82	Them	66.58	20	9	0.45	-11
101	Indiana	32.26	101	69	0.68	-32
102	Michigan State	48.34	70	38	0.54	-32
116	Illinois	31.86	103	35	0.34	-68

Eventually, I hope to re-analyze these data in terms of how a given recruiting class reflects a team's rank 2,3, or 4 years down the road.