Dollars and Sense

A number of fans--myself included--would like to see Notre Dame join the Big Ten. Not only would this ensure more games against the Irish, but expansion would allow the Big Ten to add a championship game. More football? What could possibly be bad about that?

Unfortunately, Notre Dame likes it's independence, like Independent George on Seinfeld. Independent Irish.

NOTRE DAME: You see, right now, I have Big Ten Irish, but there is also Independent Irish. That's the Irish you know, the Irish you grew up with -- Rudy Irish, Touchdown Jesus Irish, Knute Rockne Irish, Gerry Faust Irish.

JERRY: I, I love that Irish.

NOTRE DAME: Me Too! And he's Dying Jerry! If Big Ten Irish walks through this door, he will Kill Independent Irish! Notre Dame, divided against itself, Cannot Stand!

Joe Paterno recently commented on adding the Irish, basically indicating that that ship had sailed and they had their chance. The Irish have been courted in the past and said NO. Most people think that Notre Dame stands to make more money on its own.

But Clay Travis of the NCAA Fanhouse questions the fiscal validity of this premise.

Chances are, you still think that Notre Dame is banking major revenue from this agreement in comparison to other teams. Chances are, you're wrong. What do Vanderbilt and Northwestern have in common when it comes to football? Answer: They likely both get more money for their televised football games than Notre Dame does. As does every other team in the Big Ten and the SEC.

In 2008, NBC ponied up an extension to the Fighting Irish television contract. USA Today reported that the current contract paid Notre Dame in the neighborhood of $9 million per year. The new deal won't begin until 2010, but it's doubtful the rights fees increased very much, since Notre Dame's television ratings have been dwindling for several years. (Last season, the average Notre Dame game on NBC drew less than half the ratings that CBS and ABC averaged for their college football games.)

Notre Dame's television and shared Big East conference revenue [basketball] in 2009 will be, at best, $11.35 million. Why's that number important? Because in 2008, every school in the Big Ten will clear north of $15 million from the conference, a number that will only increase in years to come. Every school in the SEC will bank, conservatively, $17 million.

What does all of this mean? Notre Dame's television revenue is going to continue to fall relative to the Big Ten and the SEC. If Vanderbilt and Northwestern aren't already ahead of the Irish, which I think the numbers prove they definitely are, another couple of years of increasing television money will erase all doubts. This will continue all the way up through 2015 when Notre Dame's newest extension with NBC runs out. By that time, the financial ramifications of Notre Dame's independence will have become more apparent to everyone.

Now just because you read this on the Internet, take it with a grain of salt. Or a shot of whiskey, whatever works for you. I don't know how accurate all these numbers are, but if the ratings numbers are anywhere near accurate, it will be very difficult for Notre Dame to renegotiate in the future. And this is especially true if Weis (or someone else?) doesn't start winning again.

But will they really kill Independent Irish?