Statistically Speaking: Monte Ball Edition

What IS behind curtain number 3?

The NCAA rankings don't favor Penn State well this week in the match-up with Wisconsin.

NCAA Stats Comparison
Category:	Penn St.	Wisconsin	Delta
Rushing	45	10	-35
Passing Offense	95	57	-38
Total Offense	89	12	-77
Scoring Offense	106	5	-101
Rushing Defense	34	44	10
Turnovers Gained	14	61	47
Passes Had Intercepted	36	2	-34
Pass Defense	6	3	-3
Net Punting	92	70	-22
Punt Returns	80	5	-75
Kickoff Returns	26	91	65
Turnover Margin	23	7	-16
Fumbles Recovered	27	108	81
Passes Intercepted	14	19	5
Fumbles Lost	70	1	-69
Turnovers Lost	49	2	-47
Passing Efficiency	110	2	-108
Pass Efficiency Defense	4	10	6
Total Defense	8	6	-2
Scoring Defense	3	6	3
Fewest Penalties Per Game	20	32	12
Fewest Yards Penalized Per Game	23	25	2
Punt Return Yardage Defense	61	55	-6
Kickoff Return Yardage Defense	66	80	14
Offense Third-down Efficiency	92	3	-89
Offense Fourth-down Efficiency	17	10	-7
Defense Third-down Efficiency	41	39	-2
Defense Fourth-down Efficiency	35	69	34
Tackles for Loss	22	29	7
Offense Tackles for Loss	5	16	11
Pass Sacks	25	42	17
Pass Sacks Allowed	21	47	26
Time of Possession	40	27	-13
First Downs	83	22	-61
First Downs Allowed	12	4	-8
Red Zone Efficiency	86	3	-83
Red Zone Efficiency - Defense	115	69	-46
Average NCAA Rank:	45.81	29.54	-16.27
Weighted Avg. Rank:	51.25	19.33	-31.92

The Badgers are better than Penn State in almost every category.  Wisconsin's 29.54 average NCAA rank is good for FOURTH in the nation, behind LSU, Alabama and Stanford in that order.  In case you are wondering, PSU's 45.81 is ranked 20th in the Nation.

Even in the categories where PSU has an "edge", that edge is thin.  Kickoff returns and fumbles recovered is where it is at.  We need to recover fumbles and run back kicks to win this game.

Penn State is a 15 point underdog.

Well, throw out those stats.  Stifle Edith.  Come on Eileen.  Good Night Irene.

This game is going to come down to the team that wants it the most.  Penn State has overcome incredible tragedy and odds to even be in this position.  Yeah, they've won a lot of close ugly games against less than marquee opponents.  In fact, the two marquee opponents to date--Nebraska and Alabama--beat us.

But Ohio State beat the Badgers (in Ohio Stadium.)  And in case you forgot, Penn State beat those same Buckeyes (actually a better Buckeye team because they had Posey back) last Saturday in Ohio Stadium.  Michigan State needed a Hail Mary pass to beat the Badgers, but again, that was not in Madison.  The guys with a W on their helmet are averaging about 52 points per home game.

Make no mistake about it.  Penn State will be lucky if they are still in this game going into the fourth quarter.  But if they are still in the game--watch out.  This team is on a mission, and that mission is not to lose.

In my preseason assessment, I ranked this game as the second most difficult game to win behind the Alabama game.  It still is.  Here's what I said:

After I put this list together, I found out that Jon Budmayr, who was supposed to start for the Badgers at Quarterback, has been injured. NC State transfer Russell Wilson is going to be thrust into the job early on, according to the ESPN Big 10 Blog. Of course, he may be back by the last game of the season, but who knows if he can win his job back (ala Bolden last year) or if he will mentally and physically be able to manage the team.

Had I known this, I might have dropped the Badgers down to 4th. But maybe not. Does it really matter who is the quarterback? They are going to line up a herd of cattle across the field and pound the ball at you come hell or high water. They have depth at running back--Montee Ball (are you kidding me!), James White and Zach Brown. Despite losing two all-Americans on the line, the Badgers are expected to reload. That's what they do. Big. Offensive. Linemen.

Prediction: We lose. We might win, but I just don't have the confidence (stupidity) that I used to have. I think a lot will come down to how banged up these teams are after the Big Ten season. It should be an interesting finale, and hopefully will have some championship implications.

Well, well, well.  I wasn't far off.  But who knew a reject from NC State would end up being a star QB for the Badgers?  And while I'm not sure there's enough Kool Aid to really make me think we can or will win this game, I just can't shake the feeling that this team, these players, these coaches--won't find some way to pull this out and head to Indy for the Big Ten Championship.

And perhaps the stars are aligning.  Apparently, the starting center for Wisconsin is out due to an injury.

The Badgers are known for their outstanding offensive lines, but they are dealing with a key injury as center Peter Konz is out with a bad ankle. That has led to some shuffling on the line, which could be a break for Penn State's defensive front.

Tom Bradley has gone on record saying he wants the PSU head coaching job.  This is a big test, but if he brings home a win--and perhaps a Big Ten Title--can the Board of Trustees really look past him?

GO STATE!  BEAT BADGERS!