Statistically Speaking: Corn Pone Edition

From the NCAA site, here are the stats for PSU versus Nebraska:

NCAA Stats Comparison
Category:	Penn St.	Nebraska	Delta
Rushing	55	13	-42
Passing Offense	88	101	13
Total Offense	88	53	-35
Scoring Offense	100	27	-73
Rushing Defense	24	64	40
Turnovers Gained	12	73	61
Passes Had Intercepted	43	43	0
Pass Defense	7	20	13
Net Punting	97	34	-63
Punt Returns	82	46	-36
Kickoff Returns	20	4	-16
Turnover Margin	23	53	30
Fumbles Recovered	36	73	37
Passes Intercepted	7	56	49
Fumbles Lost	82	36	-46
Turnovers Lost	63	33	-30
Passing Efficiency	106	65	-41
Pass Efficiency Defense	3	33	30
Total Defense	8	41	33
Scoring Defense	3	40	37
Fewest Penalties Per Game	26	59	33
Fewest Yards Penalized Per Game	28	57	29
Punt Return Yardage Defense	67	114	47
Kickoff Return Yardage Defense	65	99	34
Offense Third-down Efficiency	87	37	-50
Offense Fourth-down Efficiency	6	22	16
Defense Third-down Efficiency	31	93	62
Defense Fourth-down Efficiency	78	78	0
Tackles for Loss	12	114	102
Offense Tackles for Loss	11	36	25
Pass Sacks	28	81	53
Pass Sacks Allowed	24	24	0
Time of Possession	43	103	60
First Downs	78	49	-29
First Downs Allowed	11	34	23
Red Zone Efficiency	79	15	-64
Red Zone Efficiency - Defense	112	37	-75
Average NCAA Rank:	46.84	52.97	6.14
Weighted Avg. Rank:	50.17	45.33	-4.83

Nebraska has a worse pass offense than PSU, if you can believe that is possible.  While there is a perception that Nebraska has a tough defense, the numbers do not truly bear that out.  They're not bad--don't get me wrong--but we have faced statistically tougher defenses against Bama, Illinois and probably Temple even. 

I suspect Iowa is comparable in the Big Ten to what we will face on Saturday.  From the Big Ten site, Iowa is ranked 7th and UNL 8th in scoring defense in the league.  Nebraska is 7th and Iowa 8th in total defense.

Nebraska is poor in terms of time of possession.  If we can get our running game going with Redd et al, we could conceivably control this game ala vintage Paterno.  Another ugly win, but a win nonetheless.

The intangibles, though, favor Nebraska.  Coming off an upset, they are going to be out to prove something.  This is a kind of must-win game for them to stay in the hunt for their division title.  They are already one loss down to the Spartans who have Iowa, Indiana and Northwestern left on their schedule.  They can't afford to be two games behind.

And then there is the Jerry Sandusky crap that could be a distraction.  Ya think!?  With the storm clouds over State College, we can only hope this team circles the wagons, shuts out the cruel world around them, and focuses on playing football, at least for three to four hours on Saturday.

I hate noon starts.  Especially big games like these.

Here is how the Huskers' season has played out so far:

W  Chattanooga  40-7
W  Fresno State 42-29
W  Washington 51-38
W  @Wyoming 38-14
L   @Wisconsin 48-17
W  Ohio State 34-27
W  @Minnesota 41-14
W  Michigan State 24-3
L   Northwestern 28-25  (only common opponent so far and we beat the Wildcats 34-24.)

In my pre-season countdown, I had the Cornhuskers pegged as the third most difficult game behind Bama and Wisconsin, and one spot ahead of the Cheateyes.

My final analysis:

Prediction: If Nebraska is as good as the experts claim them to be, then I don't think PSU can win this game. But I do think it is winnable. I'm not sold on QB Martinez, and he had an ankle injury last season which may play a factor in his play this year. I think Nebraska is going to find play in the Big Ten to be a little different than the high scoring shoot 'em up Big XII conference, where the only Big D they have heard of is Dallas. Officially, I call this a loss. Off the record, I think we can win this game.

I still think we can win this game.  The Husker D is not as good as people thought they would be, and they have been inconsistent offensively.  Our defense is playing better than some people expected, and our offense has been improving--slowly but surely.  I think our defense plays lights out on senior day and our offense manages not to make a fatal mistake.  I look for a close win in the Iowa game range, maybe 16-13.