Thursday, October 27, 2011

Statistically Speaking: Illinois Edition

Here are the stats from the NCAA website for PSU and Illinois coming into this weekend:

NCAA Stats Comparison
Category:Penn St.IllinoisDelta
Passing Offense8472-12
Total Offense7645-31
Scoring Offense8964-25
Rushing Defense19190
Turnovers Gained134229
Passes Had Intercepted48480
Pass Defense14217
Net Punting951027
Punt Returns7911637
Kickoff Returns2011898
Turnover Margin277447
Fumbles Recovered46460
Passes Intercepted64438
Fumbles Lost7410228
Turnovers Lost669024
Passing Efficiency9831-67
Pass Efficiency Defense54237
Total Defense8102
Scoring Defense51510
Fewest Penalties Per Game2717-10
Fewest Yards Penalized Per Game3115-16
Punt Return Yardage Defense7153-18
Kickoff Return Yardage Defense7310027
Offense Third-down Efficiency7313-60
Offense Fourth-down Efficiency4118114
Defense Third-down Efficiency3518-17
Defense Fourth-down Efficiency82820
Tackles for Loss256-19
Offense Tackles for Loss57065
Pass Sacks238-15
Pass Sacks Allowed1410692
Time of Possession3320-13
First Downs7345-28
First Downs Allowed13141
Red Zone Efficiency8734-53
Red Zone Efficiency - Defense11744-73
Average NCAA Rank:46.1651.004.84
Weighted Avg. Rank:47.5043.17-4.33

The disparity between the straight up stats and the "weighted" stats, where key categories such as total offense or defense are given more weight than categories like fewest penalties per game, is again apparent this week.

Purdue was better in weighted stats than actual straight stats.  Northwestern was worse.  Illinois is again better when the stats are weighted.  Does that mean anything?

Well, the Illini lost to Purdue, whom we beat, and neither Northwestern or Purdue could win the most points on the scoreboard stat.

But neither of those teams was as close in the defensive categories to Penn State as Illinois is.  Pass efficiency defense is the only major defensive category that Illinois is not within 10 rank points or less of matching PSU.  Illionois leads PSU in all major offensive categories by at least 12 rank points.

We are very poor on third down efficiency on offense; Illinois is considerably better.

Overall, weighted or not, the two teams are closely matched on paper.

Penn State is favored by 5 in what appears to be a defensive clash.  And the weather appears to be cold and wet . . .
Okay, campers tailgaters, rise and shine, and don't forget your booties 'cause it's cooooold out there today Saturday.

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