Nittanyville

Weekly Game Guide: Halloween Edition

It's Halloween night here in Central PA--or at least the night the little hoodlums are allowed to venture to my door in search of treats.

Clemson is taking on Wake Forest.  Guess I'll watch the Big Bang Theory tonight.

But there are some great games on tap this weekend . . .

PSU takes on OSU at Beaver Stadium to what will probably be a sell-out crowd.  The line has fluctuated from PSU favored by 3 to the Buckeyes favored by 1.  This won't be the usual 17-10 slugfest we have become accustomed to.  I look for a good bit of scoring, and for the PSU D to outperform the Bucks.  Penn State 31- OSU 17.  Two touchdowns.  You read it here first.

In the Big Ten:

Wisconsin is favored by 6 over the Spartans.  Sorry Sparty, but I gotta go with da Badgers on this one.  We play them and not you.  You are of no use to me now.  You blew it against THEM.  You are the weakest link!  Good Bye!  GO BADGERS!

Northwestern is favored by 5 over the Hawkeyes.  No brainer here.  GO WILDCATS!

Purdue is favored by 3 over Minnesota.  Sorry Gophers, but we don't play you, and a win by the Boilers may make them less desperate to beat us.  GO BOILERS!

Illinois is favored by 2 over the Hoosiers in the who cares game of the week.  But sooner or later, the Hoosiers are going to win a Big Ten game and I'd just as soon it not be against us.  GO HOOSIERS!

The Huskers are favored by 2 over THEM.  GO BIG RED!

In games featuring previous opponents:

Temple is a 7 point dog to Pitt.  GO OWLS!

Ohio is a 7 point favorite over Miami (OH).  GO BOBCATS!

Navy is a 3.5 dog to East Carolina.  I thought the Atlantic Ocean was East of Carolina.  Oh, Sweet Carolina (bom, bom, bom!)  GO MIDSHIPMEN!

Virginia's six game losing streak since "beating" Penn State takes a week off.

In other games:

Oklahoma takes on the Irish.  The only thing worse than PSU not going to a bowl game is ND in the national title game.  OK is a 12 point favorite.  GO SOONERS!

And I guess there are some other games as well.  Whatever.

"EYE"-ing Up the Bucks

Here are the NCAA stats for Penn State versus Ohio State.

The over-all stat average difference this week (43.43 vs. 54.97) is even greater than last week (46.92 vs. 52.14 for Iowa.)  And we all know how well that worked out for the Hawkeyes.  On paper, Penn State should have an easier time with the Buckeyes.

The strength of Ohio State is their offense, and this is primarily on the ground.  How much last week's injury to Braxton Miller will have an effect remains to be seen. 

I actually am liking this match-up.  We have the better passing offense, and they have a significantly worse pass defense.  Both teams are tough defensively in the red zone, and against the run.  Penn State's rank in red zone offense still includes early season struggles and a lot of missed field goals, so that stat is skewed.  In other words, I think we are a better red zone team now than we were in the first four games.

Ohio State also appears to be better at fourth down conversions, but they have only attempted 8 conversions, making 6.  Penn State, on the other hand, by virtue of no kicking threat, have tried on fourth down 23 times!  And many of those were fourth and longer than a yard or two--I suspect most of the Buckeye's conversion were on fourth and short.

We are still woefully weak in almost all special teams areas--punting, kick-offs and returns.  In a close game, special teams problems could be huge.  I don't expect a quick fix here, so we have to hope that the offense can score enough points and control the ball like they did against Iowa to keep the special teams element a non-factor in this game.

It will be key for Penn State to jump on top quickly--it will keep the crowd in the game and put the pressure on the Buckeyes to respond in a hostile environment.  It will also be key to limit the mistakes as much as possible--fumbles, returns for TDs, etc.

I also fear the referees.  Neither of these teams is going to the post-season.  The outcome means nothing in terms of Big Ten representation in the bowl season.  But the Buckeyes are ranked in the Top 10, and one of only two Big Ten teams in the AP poll (THEM is ranked 20th, but may lose on the road to Nebraska this weekend.)  Thus, in the eyes of the conference, it is essential that the Buckeyes prevail.  Yeah, there's replay, if the Bucks don't line up faster than an offensive lineman at an all you can eat buffet and run a play before it can be reviewed.  Mark my words--the calls on the field will go in Ohio State's favor if there is any question, and we can only pray that instant replay will right the wrong. 

Check out the rankings for fewest penalties . . . PSU is 19th while the Bucks are 96th.  The actual numbers are 4.57 penalties per game for Penn State and 7.5 per game for the Bucks.  I will be more than surprised if those numbers aren't reversed Saturday.

But, it's not like this Penn State team hasn't faced and over come adversity this season.

Saturday is just one more test.  One more game.  One Team.  Another win.

Hawk and Awe

Staying Classy in Iowa City . . .

Penn State unleashed a hell storm of shock and awe all over the Iowa Hawkeyes in Iowa City.  A final score of 38-14 doesn't even begin to indicate how lopsided this victory was.  And make no mistake about it, even die hard fans like myself couldn't have fantasized about an outcome like this.  Most of us would have been happy, even giddy, with a one point victory.  It's like coming home after a long, hard day at the office and your wife greeting you at the door wearing only a smile.  And she's invited her single friend, the hot girl down the street, over for a threesome--if you don't mind.  And all the way home, all you were hoping for was that dinner would be ready.

Yeah.  It's like that.  Dinner would have been just fine.  In a season that just seems to keep getting better and better, when one could only reasonably expect more misery, these Nittany Lions just keep surprising everyone.  In the annals of recent games, this ranks right up there, and perhaps higher, than Nebraska in 2002 (40-7) , Minnesota in 2005 (44-14), or Wisconsin in 2008, a 48-7 win at Camp Randall.

And for Penn State fans on the Internet, it was especially gratifying to quiet the Iowa trolls that appear each year before this game like a case of recurrent herpes.  Mark Wogenrich of the Morning Call writes that the jawing carried from the Internet into the stadium . . .

The first few rows of stands at Kinnick Stadium practically sit atop the visiting team's bench, making it easy for fans to share their thoughts with players. Credit the Iowa group: They were still jawing in the fourth quarter, even when their team trailed 38-7.

"Hey McGloin," one guy yelled. "You going to call the cops on me again?"

Throwing towels, and jabs about Jerry Sandusky, continued long after the Penn State offense had lapped Iowa in a 24-0 first half designed, in part, to quiet the 70,585 in attendance. Cornerback Stephon Morris called the environment 'hostile" in a sporting way, though he did hear Sandusky's name quite a bit.

"Typical drunk fans," Morris said. "But it was fun, especially at the end."

Apparently McGloin informed the cops that fans were throwing things at the team.  Makes you kind of wish Zwinak hadn't pulled a Michael Vick while fumbling into the end zone for a touch back.  But even 45-14 isn't enough for the childish Sandusky slurs.

The first half was perhaps one of the best altogether first halves of football Penn State has played in a while, racing out to a 24-0 half time lead.  Penn state then opened the second half with their best kick-off return of the year, and two plays later, they upped their dominance to 31-0.  Play got a little sloppy in the fourth quarter, with a special teams breakdown giving up a TD on a kick off, and a blocked field goal.  Another fumble by Zwinak stopped a drive. 

Many will second guess O'Brien's choice to go for it on fourth and one from our own 36 in the third quarter, but quite frankly, I liked the call.  PSU was up 31 to zip, the offense, the Zwinak fumble on the previous possession not withstanding, was really rolling, and McGloin has been gold on the sneak in those situations.  We went to the well one too many times, but Iowa failed to put any points on the board anyway, as the defense rose to the occasion. 

Penn State then followed that stand with a 14 play, 97 yard drive that put them up 38-0 with only fourteen minutes to go.

I would like to think had Penn State been nursing a small lead, been behind, or had problems on offense, O'Brien would not have made that call.  But there was simply no reason on Earth not to go for it as our defense had already shut the Hawkeyes down all night and one score would not put them back into that game, as evidenced by the kick off return which failed to do little more than excite the handful of drunkards still hanging out in Kinnick Stadium.

In the end, it was a gratifying win on a day when the likes of THEM, Ohio State and ND all pulled wins out of their collective asses, further bolstering the appearance that they are better than they really are.

BY THE NUMBERS:

You want some numbers to crunch?  Chew on these right here:  Matt McGloin rushed for 26 yards on five carries.  The entire Hawkeye team rushed for 20 yards on 23 carries.  Silas Redd (USC) rushed for 13 yards on 3 carries.

I'll be the first to admit that I was a wee bit leery about Ted Roof as our new defensive coordinator.  But let's face it, this defense is playing better each week .  If only we had a special teams coach!

PSU outgained the Hawkeyes 504 to 209 yards.  Belton notched a hundred yard game. 

Despite the NASCAR hurry-up offense, PSU still controlled time of possession with 38 minutes of offensive plays.  Holy Paradox, Batman!

Mike Myers, the Iowa kicker, was supposedly having a good year.  He missed two field goals, winning the Ficken Trophy.

INTANGIBLES:

70,585 fans attended the game.

I didn't know corn could do that!

The Nittany Lions have won five games in a row.

Penn State leads the all-time series 13-12.  I don't vacate wins.  Kiss my grits, Emmert.

Penn State won the toss and elected to defer.  This was a little out of character for O'Brien who likes to put points on the board first.  I suspect he respected Iowa's defense, and felt confident that his own D would hold.  Or maybe he just wanted to switch things up.

THE BIG (TEN) PICTURE:

The Buckeyes win, but lose, coming from behind to defeat Purdue.  The Boilermakers led until 56 second left in the game, when the Ohio State back-up QB engineered a scoring drive and two-point conversion to send the game into OT.  The Bucks prevailed 29-22, but the status of Braxton Miller is up in the air for next weeks game at Beaver Stadium.

Little brother came from behind to beat Michigan State without scoring a single touchdown in a 12-10 victory that would have made Joe Paterno as happy as a tornado in a trailer park.  The Spartan season continues to free fall.  Even the ancient Greeks weren't this tragic.

Nebraska edged Northwestern 29-28 in a come from behind win.  Indiana lost to Navy 31-30.  Wisconsin badgered the Gophers 38-13.

SHEDDING TEARS:

1.  West Virginia--another lopsided loss, this one to K-State 55-14
2.  South Carolina -  back to back losses to LSU and Florida.  No shame,  But tough none the same.
3.  Va Tech--  4-4 on the season after loss to Clemson.
4.  Temple lost to Rutgers 35-10 after leading 10-0.
5.  Auburn is 1-6 after losing to Vanderbilt.  Maybe they miss Ted Roof?

LOOKING AHEAD:

BRING ON THE BUCKEYES. 

WHITE OUT GAME IN BEAVER STADIUM.  5:30 PM.  BE THERE.

The Buckeyes are undefeated but limp into this matchup after an OT win against the Boilers and possibly losing their starting QB, Toni Braxton Miller.  However, before we get too excited, let's keep in mind that the Buckeye's back-up came in and finished the job, albeit against Purdue.  Bill O'Brien won't have much tape to look at in regards to Kenny Guiton, so that may negate some advantage there.  They also struggled with an MSU team that lost to Iowa and quite frankly, was a bit over-rated.  That there's an understatement!

On the other hand, the Nittany Lions seem to be hitting their stride.  Mauti is playing lights out, and Belton appears healthy and faster than before.  I really can't wait for next Saturday!

Urban Who?

It was only speculation as to whether Urban Meyer was really interested in succeeding Paterno or not, but there is no denying he didn't let the door hit him on the ass on the way out when all hell broke loose in Happy Valley last year.  He's no better than the players who abandoned ship.

And in retrospect, I'm glad Meyer is not our coach.  I'm more than happy with Bill O'Brien and couldn't even name another coach I'd rather have leading our football team.  And I think we will see who the better coach is come Saturday.  And if you need another reason to hate Urban . . . his initials are UM, that team up north.

GO STATE!  BEAT BUCKEYES!

Weekly Game Guide: Ottumwa Iowa Edition

Oregon takes on Arizona State tonight as the Ducks try to edge Florida out of the #2 BCS spot.  The Ducks are favored by 10.  But I like the weather in Arizona better.  GO SUN DEVILS!

Two touchdowns in the first 1:12 of the game (score 7-7)!  That's some fine defensive football right there.

Iowa is still favored over the Lions, but the line has dropped to 2.5. GO STATE!

In the Big Ten:

Michigan State is a 9.5 point dog to "little brother" in Ann Arbor.  Can the schizophrenic Spartans pull the upset?  I certainly hope so.  GO SPARTANS!

The Buckeyes are favored by 20 over Purdue.  Can the Perdue Ovenstuffers stuff Braxton and the Bucks?  I don't think so.  But I'll be rooting for the Boilers just the same.  GO PURDUE!

Wisconsin is favored by 17 over Minnesota.  What the heck?  GO GOPHERS!

Indiana faces off against the Midshipmen of Navy.  Navy is favored by 2.5 points.  GO NAVY!

Iowa has a football team???

Nebraska is favored by 7 over Northwestern.  GO WILDCATS!

Illinois is off, and no one will likely notice.

In games featuring previous opponents:

Ohio has a bye week.

Virginia is favored by 3.5 over Wake Forest.  Virginia has beaten only one FBS school:  Penn State.  And they should have lost that one too!  GO CAVS!

Rutgers is a 4.5 favorite over the Owls.  GO TEMPLE!

In other games of interest:

The Irish are favored over BYU by 13.  Please God, help BYU win.  Throw the Mormons a bone.  Besides, adversity builds character.  Notre Dame needs some character building.  Please.  GO COUGARS!

Florida is favored by 3.5 over South Carolina.  GO GAMECOCKS!

LSU is favored by 3 over Texas A & M.  Yeah.  we really like Les Miles.  Not.  GO AGGIES!

"EYE"-ing up the Hawks

Iowa has inched up to a three point favorite for the upcoming prime time clash in Iowa City Saturday night.  Why?  I have no idea.  So let's explore this thing called the Iowa Hawkeyes.

Here is their season to date. 

They are 4-2 with uninspired losses to teams they probably should have beaten or would normally, in a season not known as 2012, have beaten.  In that respect, they are not unlike the Nittany Lions, although one might be able to spend some quality time arguing whether Ohio and Virginia are higher quality losses than Iowa State and Central Michigan.  Their marquee victory, last weeks double OT tilt over the Spartans, is probably not any more significant than Penn State's come from behind win over Northwestern.  MSU obviously started the season ranked and even made it into the top 10 before watching thie season crash and burn with losses to ND, OSU and Iowa.  Northwestern has a better record, but not the strength of schedule that the Spartans boast.

So let's just call the 4-2 seasons between Penn State and Iowa a tie.  Let's look at some stats, shall we?  I post the NCAA stats for these two teams in table form, with blue indicating an edge for PSU and yellow an advantage for the Hawks.

As you can see, PSU has a slight edge over all.  There are 19 blue categories and 17 yellow ones.  It's like a damned Electoral College map of the US.  Turnover margin remained neutral.

Neither offense is prolific.  Neither defense is oppressive.

The three point spread basically amounts to home field advantage as the odds makers seem to think this is a pretty closely matched game.

In the end, this may come down to intangibles. 

The overall record, not taking into account any vacations, is 12-12.  Penn state won the last meeting in State College last year, 13-3.

Since 2000, the Lions have beaten Iowa only twice (2007, 2011) and have had such monumentally CRapp-tastic(*) efforts as a 6-4 loss in 2004 and an epic fail in 2008 when we were ranked 3rd behind the guidance of Daryll Clark.  With a few exceptions, these match-ups tend to be low scoring, defensive struggles, or more correctly, games where the offenses struggle.

But this is not Joe Paterno's Nittany Lions anymore.  This is O'Brien's Lions, and is a much different creature than Captain Kirk has faced before.

The Lions are on a roll, winning four in a row.  I feel they have shown improvement each week, with the exception of special teams, and it has been a long time since I've been able to say that about a Penn State team.  I have only been blogging since the mid-nineties, and I don't think we've ever seen a team continue to develop game to game like we have seen this season.

And while a new coach like O'Brien adds a degree of uncertainty to the mix (and certainly that is an advantage offensively), given that Ferentz and Co. have to actually look at game tape this year, we must keep in mind that the converse is true as well.  O'Brien has probably never given Iowa a thought before this past week.  Why would he?  He was too busy trying to prepare for the Steelers and the Ravens, although I suspect Hawkeye tastes much like Raven, if prepared properly.  And in a certain light, those Hawkeye uniforms look like Steelers.  I hope he doesn't have bad flashbacks!

In fact, what O'Brien has achieved is phenomenal.  How many teams would be 6-2 with a new coach, new system, NCAA sanctions, and losing 10-11 players before the season starts, especially at key positions such as starting RB, WR and place kicker?  NOT MANY.  At any level of play.

Penn State has not won at Iowa City since 1999.  But this weekend, the Lions are going to party like it's 1999.  I think we will see an inspired game plan that old Ferentz is unaccustomed to.  I think the Iowa D will be exposed just as we exposed the supposedly good front line of the Illini.  Mark Weisman is listed on ESPN as doubtful.  The bye week gives us a chance to nurse some injuries and to continue to innovate on offense.  Have you noticed that we see new plays each game?  I know!  What is up with that!?

That said, it will be a cold October night in Iowa.  Last time, we didn't bring the heaters.  I hope to God we bring the heaters.  No need to give your opponent any more advantage than they might already have.  I don't know if we would have won in 2008 with sideline heaters, but in my little blue and white world, I have convinced myself that we would have prevailed in that game.  But I digress.

It will be cold in Iowa.  At night.  Before a hostile, loud crowd.  Even with my Kool Aid drinking offensive wet dreams, I still think this will be a close, relatively low scoring affair.  That is just the nature of this particular beast.  I just hope it doesn't come down to a field goal!

Need a Blue and White verision of this!

GO STATE!  BEAT HAWKEYES!

(*) CRapp = Cedar Rapids (Iowa) App.

Pigskin Postgames: Bye Week Edition

Defenseless WVU plummets from the Top 10 after tanking at Texas Tech.  The Neers managed a paltry 14 points while giving up 49 to the Red Raiders.  Speaking of giving up, Pitt is 0-3 in their conference after being beaten 45-35 by an undefeated Louisville team. 

Oklahoma took Texas out behind the woodshed for a good old fashioned beating, 63-21.  That's going to leave a mark.

Alabama owns all the first place votes in both polls after beating Missouri 42-10 in a game delayed due to lightning.  Those 10 points include a kickoff return of 98 yards by Mizzou after the delay.

Texas A & M handed La Tech their first loss in another exciting exhibition of no defense football.  The final score:  59-57.  Can you imagine scoring 57 points . . . AND LOSING!?  Okay, it's pretty easy to imagine in the Big XII.

Hey!  Navy beat CMU 31-13!

Rutgers is undefeated, and nobody cares.  So is Ohio.  The Bobcats broke the AP Top 25.

Temple beat UConn 16-13 in OT.

The Irish may have won, but apparently Stanford lost as the replay couldn't even overcome the mystical aura of Notre Dame stadium.  Coach Kelley was quoted afterward saying, "Very good opponent in Stanford, but today Notre Dame was better."  He said that with a straight face.  On Saturday, Notre Dame wasn't the better team, but the referees were not the best either.

South Carolina came up short against LSU by two and failed to recover an on-sides kick that would have really made the night interesting.

In the Big Ten, the Buckeyes edged Indiana 52-49.  That's some fine defense right there by the Buckeyes.  Pizza Delivery guys beware.  Ixnay on the oopidstay efenseday!  There's going to be a serious jump in unemployment in Columbus if that crap keeps up. 

Denard Robinson pounded Illinois into a senseless pulp, 45-0.  The Greek Tragedy that is Michigan State's season continued, as Iowa slipped past Sparty 19-16 in double OT thanks to a tipped INT.  Northwestern beat Minnesota 21-13--nice rebound for Fitzgerald's crew.  Wisconsin found someone they could beat, as they guzzled some Boilermakers en route to a 38-14 victory.

Minnesota's coach Jerry Kill suffered another seizure following Saturday's loss to Northwestern.  He appears to be okay, but it is uncertain whether he will be able to coach next week against Wisconsin.  Prayers for Jerry Kill and his family.

And, a belated Rest In Peace to Beano Cook, who passed away this week.