Statistically Speaking: Ticket City Edition

Here are the national rankings for Houston vs. Penn State from the NCAA:

NCAA Stats Comparison
Category:	Penn St.	Houston	Delta
Rushing	54	62	8
Passing Offense	96	1	-95
Total Offense	94	1	-93
Scoring Offense	110	1	-109
Rushing Defense	48	77	29
Turnovers Gained	28	16	-12
Passes Had Intercepted	35	9	-26
Pass Defense	5	48	43
Net Punting	78	60	-18
Punt Returns	77	9	-68
Kickoff Returns	32	55	23
Turnover Margin	32	8	-24
Fumbles Recovered	29	52	23
Passes Intercepted	24	5	-19
Fumbles Lost	92	42	-50
Turnovers Lost	65	11	-54
Passing Efficiency	112	3	-109
Pass Efficiency Defense	5	24	19
Total Defense	10	64	54
Scoring Defense	5	41	36
Fewest Penalties Per Game	29	64	35
Fewest Yards Penalized Per Game	30	58	28
Punt Return Yardage Defense	66	74	8
Kickoff Return Yardage Defense	63	60	-3
Offense Third-down Efficiency	95	6	-89
Offense Fourth-down Efficiency	27	39	12
Defense Third-down Efficiency	52	47	-5
Defense Fourth-down Efficiency	32	47	15
Tackles for Loss	30	4	-26
Offense Tackles for Loss	2	5	3
Pass Sacks	26	35	9
Pass Sacks Allowed	16	33	17
Time of Possession	55	115	60
First Downs	89	2	-87
First Downs Allowed	19	64	45
Red Zone Efficiency	91	39	-52
Red Zone Efficiency - Defense	119	2	-117
Average NCAA Rank:	50.59	34.68	-15.92
Weighted Avg. Rank:	54.08	32.5	-21.58

Here is Houston's schedule for 2011:

2011	Houston	Cougars	Schedule
Date	Opponent	Result	Record	Opp. Record
Sept. 3	UCLA	W 38-34	1-0 (0-0)	6-7 *
Sept. 10	at North Texas	W 48-23	2-0 (0-0)	5-7
Sept. 17	at La Tech	W 35-34	3-0 (0-0)	8-4 *
Sept. 24	GEORGIA STATE	W 56-0	4-0 (0-0)	3-8
Sept. 29	at UTEP	W 49-42	5-0 (1-0)	5-7
Oct. 8	EAST CAROLINA	W 56-3	6-0 (2-0)	5-7
Oct. 22	MARSHALL	W 63-28	7-0 (3-0)	6-6 *
Oct. 27	RICE	W 73-34	8-0 (4-0)	4-8
Nov. 5	at UAB	W 56-13	9-0 (5-0)	3-9
Nov. 10	at Tulane	W 73-17	10-0 (6-0)	2-11
Nov. 19	SMU	W 37-7	11-0 (7-0)	7-5 *
Nov. 25	at Tulsa	W 48-16	12-0 (8-0)	8-4 *
Dec. 3	SOUTHERN MISS	L 49-28	12-1 (8-1)	11-2 *
				*=bowl

While Houston's national NCAA rankings are impressive (34.68 ranks 6th in the country--PSU's 50.59 ranks 37th), I am kind of underwhelmed by their schedule.  Southern Miss (21st in the BCS) is the only ranked team they have played.  By contrast, Penn State played nine bowl bound opponents and the Owls have already won their bowl impressively, beating Wyoming 37-15.  Five oppoennts play in January. 

Houston's offensive numbers are impressive--their defense is meh.  But how good is that offense?  If you look at the defenses (Georgia Southern not included) they have faced, the best defense was Southern Miss at 31, with an average NCAA ranking of 80 among all the Division 1A teams they faced.

To be fair, I compared the offenses that Penn State's defense has faced to date.  The best was Wisconsin at 15th in the country, with an overall average ranking of 66, not including Indiana State.

Penn State may be without starting QB Matt McGloin.  It is not clear whether Drake and McGloin will face punishment for their altercation, but McGloin will need to be medically cleared to play.  Paul Jones might be eligible if his GPA cooperates.  Bolden apparently will not suffer any team punishment for a prank gone awry, where he stole a $2.00 bottle of Gatorade and then returned it to the store.  What?  No tattoo???  Don't these kids today even know how to get into trouble?

The unknown quantity of coaching may play a factor.  Does Bradley have the job or not?  Honestly, rumors aside, he will not be the coach next season.  Rumors are flying that Larry Johnson, Sr. could be headed to Columbus to head up a defense for Urban Renewal.  Regardless of the outcome of the changes, the situation has to be a dsitraction both for the players and the coaches.

Penn State is currently a 5-6 point underdog.  Take McGloin out of the equation and add a coaching staff that is working on finding jobs elsewhere, and it doesn't add up to a Penn State victory.  Unless of course, the Cougar offense is really over-rated.

Even though this isn't a Joe Paterno-coached team anymore, it would be really nice to send his last team out on a positive note.

But that won't happen unless Houston has a problem.