By The Numbers: LSU

Penn State comes into the Cap-One Bowl with a 10-2 record, with losses to Iowa (10th in the BCS) and Ohio State (8th in the BCS.)

LSU is ranked higher in the BCS at 12 (PSU is 13), but the Tigers have 3 losses: 13-3 vs Florida (BCS #5), 24-15 vs Bama (BCS #1) and 25-23 against Ole Miss (not in the BCS top 25.)

With the Mississippi game notwithstanding, the two teams appear pretty even.

But looking at the NCAA stats for PSU and LSU:



NCAA Stats Comparison

Category:	Penn St.	LSU
Rushing	38	84
Passing Offense	40	99
Total Offense	36	108
Scoring Offense	41	74
Rushing Defense	10	44
Turnovers Gained	67	86
Passes Had Intercepted	41	22
Pass Defense	19	29
Net Punting	106	13
Punt Returns	107	1
Kickoff Returns	107	110
Turnover Margin	46	20
Fumbles Recovered	94	114
Passes Intercepted	33	33
Fumbles Lost	17	5
Turnovers Lost	28	5
Passing Efficiency	21	49
Pass Efficiency Defense	14	18
Total Defense	8	28
Scoring Defense	4	12
Fewest Penalties Per Game	7	68
Fewest Yards Penalized Per Game	3	36
Punt Return Yardage Defense	116	9
Kickoff Return Yardage Defense	62	3
Offense Third-down Efficiency	7	61
Offense Fourth-down Efficiency	56	111
Defense Third-down Efficiency	14	44
Defense Fourth-down Efficiency	10	72
Tackles for Loss	6	43
Offense Tackles for Loss	8	82
Pass Sacks	8	78
Pass Sacks Allowed	27	107
Time of Possession	13	103
First Downs	38	85
First Downs Allowed	7	60
Red Zone Efficiency	25	25
Red Zone Efficiency - Defense	1	28
Average NCAA Rank:	34.73	53.22
Weighted Avg. Rank:	31.92	48.17

Both teams struggle in kick-off returns, but LSU has a distinctive edge in punting and this could be key. Penn State lost the Iowa game on a special teams play that turned things around, and the poor field position against the Buckeyes was in large part to special teams problems and a tough Buckeye defense. I don't expect the LSU defense to be any softer.

LSU's offense appears to be a weakness for them, but they have faced some tough defenses in Florida and Bama. I'm not going to get into that argument of which conference is better or stronger. I think both the Big Ten and the SEC can hold their own--at least the teams at the top, and LSU and PSU fit into that category.

Hopefully, PSU will have spent some time looking at special teams this last month and some changes will have been made. Penn State cannot afford to give up field position on punts or worse yet, points on returns. Defensively, I don't think LSU will move the ball consistently. Offensively, Penn State goes as Daryll Clark goes. If the LSU defense rattles him, I look for a long, frustrating afternoon.

My heart says PSU will prevail. The stats seem to indicate we have the overall better team. But I fear the problems we have seen all season will still be there and will come back to haunt us. I hope that I am wrong.