Statistically Speaking: Wildcat Edition

Here are the stats for Penn State and Northwestern from the NCAA site:

NCAA Stats Comparison
Category:	Penn St.	Northwestern	Delta
Rushing	52	40	-12
Passing Offense	81	68	-13
Total Offense	78	52	-26
Scoring Offense	96	62	-34
Rushing Defense	22	76	54
Turnovers Gained	10	50	40
Passes Had Intercepted	64	8	-56
Pass Defense	7	99	92
Net Punting	95	94	-1
Punt Returns	75	13	-62
Kickoff Returns	32	68	36
Turnover Margin	20	17	-3
Fumbles Recovered	33	67	34
Passes Intercepted	7	37	30
Fumbles Lost	70	14	-56
Turnovers Lost	70	6	-64
Passing Efficiency	102	36	-66
Pass Efficiency Defense	3	108	105
Total Defense	6	101	95
Scoring Defense	6	88	82
Fewest Penalties Per Game	33	28	-5
Fewest Yards Penalized Per Game	37	28	-9
Punt Return Yardage Defense	65	6	-59
Kickoff Return Yardage Defense	85	12	-73
Offense Third-down Efficiency	73	20	-53
Offense Fourth-down Efficiency	5	102	97
Defense Third-down Efficiency	32	114	82
Defense Fourth-down Efficiency	87	97	10
Tackles for Loss	32	96	64
Offense Tackles for Loss	6	94	88
Pass Sacks	48	77	29
Pass Sacks Allowed	18	102	84
Time of Possession	27	73	46
First Downs	74	29	-45
First Downs Allowed	7	61	54
Red Zone Efficiency	91	91	0
Red Zone Efficiency - Defense	119	60	-59
Average NCAA Rank:	47.78	59.3	11.52
Weighted Avg. Rank:	47.33	70.08	22.75

Unlike Purdue last week, whose weighted stats were considerably better than the straight up average, Northwestern is actually worse when key stats are weighted.

In the offensive categories, NW is ranked on average 21.25 spots better than PSU.

In the defensive categories of rushing, pass, pass efficiency, scoring and total defense, Penn State is ranked on average 85.6 spots BETTER than the Wildcats.

Neither team performs well in the red zone.  If it weren't so sad I'd be laughing.  And as good as our defense is, our red zone defense is tied for last in the country.  It's like the goal line is some weird electromagnetic force that creates havoc whenever our players get near it, whether they are on offense or defense.  It's creepy really.

But on the bright side, they can't get any worse and there's only one way to go from here.

My preseason countdown had this game ranked as our 6th most difficult game.  Illinois was #7 and Iowa was #5.  Here was my prediction:

I think Penn State will be 6-1 going into this game and building momentum. I look for a shaky start, a solid third quarter and pulling away with a win by at least 10 points. Don't ask me why. It's just a feeling I have. It might be gas.

I may be a fool, but I'm standing by that prediction, even though the line has us favored by 4.  The best thing for a struggling offense is to face a struggling defense.