Statistically Speaking: Hawkeye Pierce Edition

Here are the NCAA stats for Penn State and Iowa:

NCAA Stats Comparison
Category:	Penn St.	Iowa
Rushing	61	69
Passing Offense	66	28
Total Offense	80	45
Scoring Offense	92	21
Rushing Defense	24	52
Turnovers Gained	21	57
Passes Had Intercepted	52	2
Pass Defense	6	89
Net Punting	94	4
Punt Returns	83	56
Kickoff Returns	73	48
Turnover Margin	51	16
Fumbles Recovered	25	42
Passes Intercepted	22	55
Fumbles Lost	96	28
Turnovers Lost	94	8
Passing Efficiency	103	29
Pass Efficiency Defense	8	87
Total Defense	5	73
Scoring Defense	7	53
Fewest Penalties Per Game	35	17
Fewest Yards Penalized Per Game	33	10
Punt Return Yardage Defense	75	33
Kickoff Return Yardage Defense	58	101
Offense Third-down Efficiency	72	45
Offense Fourth-down Efficiency	7	22
Defense Third-down Efficiency	24	104
Defense Fourth-down Efficiency	116	77
Tackles for Loss	13	83
Offense Tackles for Loss	11	3
Pass Sacks	78	53
Pass Sacks Allowed	20	37
Time of Possession	50	63
First Downs	73	24
First Downs Allowed	8	89
Red Zone Efficiency	95	12
Red Zone Efficiency - Defense	115	15
Average NCAA Rank:	52.59	44.59
Weighted Avg. Rank:	49.75	47.17

Despite being a 4-point underdog, the Hawkeyes are slightly better than PSU with probably a slightly worse schedule, since they haven't faced a team like Alabama, and they lost to unranked Iowa State.  They are a better passing team, but our pass defense probably negates that advantage.

Defensively, the Hawkeyes had better hope that we continue to put the ball on the ground or throw interceptions.  This is shaping up to be a low scoring affair, but if the Lions can stop shooting themselves in the paws and figure out how to score points in the red zone, this game might not be that close. 

Am I drinking the Kool Aid again?  You bet.  Seriously--this Hawkeye team is not as good as the team that has given us fits recently.  We may actually have more talent, particularly defensively--than Iowa.  But Ferentz seems to have our number, so until I actually see the win, I'm not betting anything on this game.

Let's revisit my preseason prediction:

Prediction: For the sake of my sanity and all that is holy, PENN STATE MUST WIN THIS GAME. This Iowa team will probably be no weaker in the near future than they are this season. We must strike while the oven is hot and pop the corn while we can. The game will be close because for the life of me, there isn't enough Kool Aid in the world to make me think we could defeat these guys. I know how the Buffalo Bills feel about Super Bowls. It defies all explanation. I'd rather have corn stuck in my teeth for the next year than lose another game to Iowa.

Hmm.  Not very confident was I?  Still am not.  Not much has changed in old Happy Valley.  But if the oddsmakers think we got a chance, then I can Haz Win.
 
Penn State 17-Iowa 9. 
 
You might as well mark it down because there is no way in hell I could be right on this.  You can laugh about it afterwards.  It's okay.  I'm used to it.