Y Not Rutgers?

The talk of the of the off-season (STEP program notwithstanding for PSU fans) is about conference expansion in the Big Ten.  Do they add one team?  Three teams?  Five teams?  Among the many candidates bandied about are Notre Dame, Texas, Nebraska, Missouri, Pitt, Syracuse and Rutgers.

You can spend countless hours reading about possible scenarios and financial considerations at Frank the Tank's Blog.  Despite Internet rumors galore, Adam Rittenberg reports that conference commish Delaney denies extending any invitations at this time.

But why worry about media footprints, TV contracts, subscriber cost and all those other so-called factors?  Does it even matter if the school wants to join the Big Ten?  I think we need to take a practical look at this issue, step back from the confusing rumors, and ask ourselves some serious questions.

Missouri?  Do we really need another M in the conference?  Seriously.  There's one too many already if you ask me.

Syracuse?  We've got orange in Illinois and a Spartan S in East Lansing.  It's like the spawn of some incestuous mating.  What good is a hybrid of that going to add to the conference?

Pitt?  Seriously.  While there are a few old school alums that would love to see the Pitt-Penn State rivalry renewed for reasons that are beyond obscure, what could Pitt possibly bring to our table besides a guaranteed loss in the mid-rounds of March Madness?  We already have Purdue with a P, and you can't spell Paterno State University without a P either.  Let's just Pass on Pitt.

Nebraska?  OK--I'll admit it.  I'd love to see Nebraska join the conference, particularly if we would get to play them on a regular basis.  But, alas we already have an N.  A big purple N.  Like a bruise, or Barney the Dinosaur.  Of course if push came to shove, we could ask Northwestern to leave.  (I'm just kidding Wildcats.  No hate mail please!)  We have a couple of I's, why not a pair of N's?  Can't spell Penn State without TWO N's!



How about Vanderbilt?  We could use a V.  (For Victory!)  Xavier.  Yeah for the X factor!  Texas brings a nice burnt orange T to the table and who doesn't like a good cup of T to go with the Joe that we already have? 

But above all this, we have Rutgers.  Although I personally think we have way to much red and scarlet in this conference already--enough to get me seeing red--Rutgers brings something intangible to the alphabet soup besides a big red R, which you have to admit is stupid pretty impressive.  We could all become best buddies and email pals with RutgersAl!  Imagine the possibilities.



I hope Rutgers includes this with their application.

Gaining Momentum?

Adam Rittenberg of ESPN blogged that the grassroots movement to add a 12th Big Ten team and create a championship game may be growing.

Seems like the movement for Big Ten expansion has received a boost, at least according to Wisconsin athletics director Barry Alvarez.

The AD and former Badgers football coach told Wisconsin's athletic board today that he expects the Big Ten to increase its push to add a 12th member. The Big Ten hasn't expanded since adding Penn State, which began competing as a league member in football in 1993.

"I have a sense [Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany] is going to take this year to really be more aggressive about it," Alvarez told the board. "I just think everybody feels [expansion] is the direction to go, coaches and administrators."

Which begets the question . . . who? Notre Dame would be a natural fit, geographically and historically. They usually play 3 Big Ten teams every year already. But their exclusive TV contract and independence remains a considerable roadblock.

I have seen various other teams thrown out there: Missouri, Nebraska, Pitt, West Virginia, Syracuse, and even Rutgers.

Cory Giger of the Altoona Mirror has thrown Cincinnati into that mix. His argument looks at things from the other side . . . not who the Big Ten wants, but who would want to join the Big Ten.

Not Pitt. Not Syracuse.

Forget about those schools because it's not going to happen. They are happy in the Big East and have become national powers in basketball. They won't give up their hoops exposure and rivalries merely for the right to be a second- or, in Syracuse's case, third-tier football program in the Big Ten.

Notre Dame may be down, but it's still getting paid big bucks. Its TV deal with NBC runs through the 2015 season and reportedly is worth $9 million per year. The school would be crazy to join a league and be forced to give up or share that money.

Looking over every major conference and every possible team, the best choice - for several reasons - to become the Big Ten's 12th member is ... Cincinnati.

There may be sexier candidates, sure, but just because the Big Ten might want one of them -- like Notre Dame, Pitt, Syracuse, Maryland or Boston College -- doesn't mean those schools would be at all interested in walking away from their current situations.

Cincinnati probably would.

He lists as the only potential drawback the size of their stadium.

The lone drawback would be that its football facility, Nippert Stadium, seats only 35,000. That would have to be addressed if Cincinnati were to enter the Big Ten.

Size doesn't matter does it? And even if it does, consider that our last game at Indiana was attended by 41,251 in 2007. I just realized that we played Indiana at home two years in a row. Huh? And next year the game will be in Washington D.C.! And the Northwestern game attendance this year was only 30,546. Surely the Bearcats could match that number with just about any Big Ten team on the schedule.

I think the maiun downside of Cincinnati is that it doesn't add anything to the viewing area, since Ohio State already represents that zone well. At least Syracuse, West Virginia, Missouri and Rutgers bring new viewing and recruiting areas into play, although arguably Penn State already draws well from those areas with the exception of Missouri.

And as for writing Notre Dame off carte blanche, consider this report by Clay Travis as to the financial implications for Notre Dame:

Why's that number important? Because in 2008, every school in the Big Ten will clear north of $15 million from the conference, a number that will only increase in years to come. Every school in the SEC will bank, conservatively, $17 million. (Looking at the numbers it's likely the SEC will hit $20 million within a couple of years.) The reason for these increases is simple, spiraling television money. The Big Ten Network distributed $7.5 million to each conference school last year, and in conjunction with the 10-year, $1-billion deal that the Big Ten signed with ABC/ESPN, there's a whole lot of new television money floating around. Let me repeat that, the Big Ten Network alone has almost equaled the payout for Notre Dame's sacrosanct contract with NBC.

Every team in the SEC has also eclipsed Notre Dame since signing a new $3-billion contract with CBS and ESPN that tripled existing rights fees ($2.25 billion reportedly comes from ESPN, while the CBS deal is $825 million). Throw in that Notre Dame now nets just $4.5 million for an appearance in a BCS game (against $1.3 million each year if it doesn't go to a BCS bowl) and you're looking at a financial mountain that is becoming increasingly uphill for Notre Dame. Television revenue at most conferences is rapidly accelerating while at Notre Dame it's staying the same. Where once the Fighting Irish were king of the television universe, conference affiliation deals are now lapping the Irish.

And these numbers were cranked out BEFORE the added expense of buying out Weis and dwindling TV ratings. It will also be interesting what effect the potential Comcast buyout of NBC has on the future of Notre Dame's contract.

Dollars and Sense

A number of fans--myself included--would like to see Notre Dame join the Big Ten. Not only would this ensure more games against the Irish, but expansion would allow the Big Ten to add a championship game. More football? What could possibly be bad about that?

Unfortunately, Notre Dame likes it's independence, like Independent George on Seinfeld. Independent Irish.

NOTRE DAME: You see, right now, I have Big Ten Irish, but there is also Independent Irish. That's the Irish you know, the Irish you grew up with -- Rudy Irish, Touchdown Jesus Irish, Knute Rockne Irish, Gerry Faust Irish.

JERRY: I, I love that Irish.

NOTRE DAME: Me Too! And he's Dying Jerry! If Big Ten Irish walks through this door, he will Kill Independent Irish! Notre Dame, divided against itself, Cannot Stand!

Joe Paterno recently commented on adding the Irish, basically indicating that that ship had sailed and they had their chance. The Irish have been courted in the past and said NO. Most people think that Notre Dame stands to make more money on its own.

But Clay Travis of the NCAA Fanhouse questions the fiscal validity of this premise.

Chances are, you still think that Notre Dame is banking major revenue from this agreement in comparison to other teams. Chances are, you're wrong. What do Vanderbilt and Northwestern have in common when it comes to football? Answer: They likely both get more money for their televised football games than Notre Dame does. As does every other team in the Big Ten and the SEC.

In 2008, NBC ponied up an extension to the Fighting Irish television contract. USA Today reported that the current contract paid Notre Dame in the neighborhood of $9 million per year. The new deal won't begin until 2010, but it's doubtful the rights fees increased very much, since Notre Dame's television ratings have been dwindling for several years. (Last season, the average Notre Dame game on NBC drew less than half the ratings that CBS and ABC averaged for their college football games.)

Notre Dame's television and shared Big East conference revenue [basketball] in 2009 will be, at best, $11.35 million. Why's that number important? Because in 2008, every school in the Big Ten will clear north of $15 million from the conference, a number that will only increase in years to come. Every school in the SEC will bank, conservatively, $17 million.

What does all of this mean? Notre Dame's television revenue is going to continue to fall relative to the Big Ten and the SEC. If Vanderbilt and Northwestern aren't already ahead of the Irish, which I think the numbers prove they definitely are, another couple of years of increasing television money will erase all doubts. This will continue all the way up through 2015 when Notre Dame's newest extension with NBC runs out. By that time, the financial ramifications of Notre Dame's independence will have become more apparent to everyone.

Now just because you read this on the Internet, take it with a grain of salt. Or a shot of whiskey, whatever works for you. I don't know how accurate all these numbers are, but if the ratings numbers are anywhere near accurate, it will be very difficult for Notre Dame to renegotiate in the future. And this is especially true if Weis (or someone else?) doesn't start winning again.

But will they really kill Independent Irish?