Statistically Speaking: Boilermaker Edition

Here are the NCAA stats for Penn State and Purdue:

NCAA Stats Comparison
Category:	Penn St.	Purdue
Rushing	53	20
Passing Offense	82	93
Total Offense	81	50
Scoring Offense	93	42
Rushing Defense	17	59
Turnovers Gained	15	99
Passes Had Intercepted	60	6
Pass Defense	5	32
Net Punting	102	6
Punt Returns	79	49
Kickoff Returns	92	34
Turnover Margin	36	43
Fumbles Recovered	24	78
Passes Intercepted	13	92
Fumbles Lost	83	11
Turnovers Lost	84	5
Passing Efficiency	101	74
Pass Efficiency Defense	4	33
Total Defense	4	36
Scoring Defense	5	30
Fewest Penalties Per Game	30	113
Fewest Yards Penalized Per Game	33	114
Punt Return Yardage Defense	63	55
Kickoff Return Yardage Defense	54	113
Offense Third-down Efficiency	77	50
Offense Fourth-down Efficiency	5	22
Defense Third-down Efficiency	35	49
Defense Fourth-down Efficiency	100	71
Tackles for Loss	22	44
Offense Tackles for Loss	8	99
Pass Sacks	42	107
Pass Sacks Allowed	19	100
Time of Possession	39	51
First Downs	74	34
First Downs Allowed	7	67
Red Zone Efficiency	95	37
Red Zone Efficiency - Defense	119	106
Average NCAA Rank:	50.14	57.41
Weighted Avg. Rank:	48.58	43.17

The stats this week show an interesting reversal.  When you just look at the straight up average NCAA rank (add each rank for each category and then divide by the number of categories) Penn State ranks better than Purdue.  But when you look at the weighted ranking (i.e. give more weight to categories like total offense, total defense, and less emphasis on first downs allowed or yards penalized per game) and Purdue actually appears to have the edge.

Our ranking is inflated by the uniformly bad numbers on the offensive side of the ball.  Purdue is simply an average team--neither offense or defense is outstanding.  The Boilers are good at net punting (6th), passes had intercepted (6th) and turnovers lost (5th.)  They are ranked 11th in the country in fumbles lost, and after that, most of their rankings are above 25.

On the other side of the ball, Penn State is ranked in the top 25 (if not the top 10) in practically every defensive category except for red zone defense.  Fortunately for us, Purdue is almost as bad in red zone defense, so maybe we have a chance of scoring some TDs this week.