Statistically Speaking: Illinois Edition

Here are the stats from the NCAA website for PSU and Illinois coming into this weekend:

NCAA Stats Comparison
Category:	Penn St.	Illinois	Delta
Rushing	50	23	-27
Passing Offense	84	72	-12
Total Offense	76	45	-31
Scoring Offense	89	64	-25
Rushing Defense	19	19	0
Turnovers Gained	13	42	29
Passes Had Intercepted	48	48	0
Pass Defense	14	21	7
Net Punting	95	102	7
Punt Returns	79	116	37
Kickoff Returns	20	118	98
Turnover Margin	27	74	47
Fumbles Recovered	46	46	0
Passes Intercepted	6	44	38
Fumbles Lost	74	102	28
Turnovers Lost	66	90	24
Passing Efficiency	98	31	-67
Pass Efficiency Defense	5	42	37
Total Defense	8	10	2
Scoring Defense	5	15	10
Fewest Penalties Per Game	27	17	-10
Fewest Yards Penalized Per Game	31	15	-16
Punt Return Yardage Defense	71	53	-18
Kickoff Return Yardage Defense	73	100	27
Offense Third-down Efficiency	73	13	-60
Offense Fourth-down Efficiency	4	118	114
Defense Third-down Efficiency	35	18	-17
Defense Fourth-down Efficiency	82	82	0
Tackles for Loss	25	6	-19
Offense Tackles for Loss	5	70	65
Pass Sacks	23	8	-15
Pass Sacks Allowed	14	106	92
Time of Possession	33	20	-13
First Downs	73	45	-28
First Downs Allowed	13	14	1
Red Zone Efficiency	87	34	-53
Red Zone Efficiency - Defense	117	44	-73
Average NCAA Rank:	46.16	51.00	4.84
Weighted Avg. Rank:	47.50	43.17	-4.33

The disparity between the straight up stats and the "weighted" stats, where key categories such as total offense or defense are given more weight than categories like fewest penalties per game, is again apparent this week.

Purdue was better in weighted stats than actual straight stats.  Northwestern was worse.  Illinois is again better when the stats are weighted.  Does that mean anything?

Well, the Illini lost to Purdue, whom we beat, and neither Northwestern or Purdue could win the most points on the scoreboard stat.

But neither of those teams was as close in the defensive categories to Penn State as Illinois is.  Pass efficiency defense is the only major defensive category that Illinois is not within 10 rank points or less of matching PSU.  Illionois leads PSU in all major offensive categories by at least 12 rank points.

We are very poor on third down efficiency on offense; Illinois is considerably better.

Overall, weighted or not, the two teams are closely matched on paper.

Penn State is favored by 5 in what appears to be a defensive clash.  And the weather appears to be cold and wet . . .

Okay, campers tailgaters, rise and shine, and don't forget your booties 'cause it's cooooold out there today Saturday.