Penn State travels to Lincoln (the city, not the vampire hunter) to take on the Huskers. Nebraska is favored by a TD. Mark May picks Nebraska. Nuff said. GO STATE! SHUCK the HUSKERS!
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| Is she feeling Corny? |
Wisconsin has a huge game against Indiana . . . in football. Who would have ever thought that was even possible? But with OSU and PSU locked out of the post season festivities, this game could determine who goes to Indy. The Badgers are favored by 7. With PSU out of the title picture, I'm fine with Indiana playing for a Big Ten title. GO HOOSIERS!
The Northwestern Wildcats travel to Ann Arbor to face THEM. The wolvereenies are favored by 9.5. GO CATS!
Iowa is favored by 5 over Purdue. Will there be any (Danny) Hope after this season? This is a must win for the Boilers and their coach. Iowa has been up and down all year. GO BOILERS!
Minnesota is favored by 3.5 over Illinois. I'm okay with that. GO GOPHS!
Michigan state and Ohio State have byes.
In games of previous opponents:
Bowling Green handed the Bobcats their second loss of the season last night, winning 26-14. How did we lose that game? Oh, to be able to do that one over again!
Navy is favored by 2 over Troy. GO NAVY!
Temple is an 8.5 dog to Cincinnati. GO OWLS . . . but good luck with that!
Virginia is favored by 1 over Miami (FL). Seriously? Whatever. GO CAVS!
In other games of remote interest:
Alabama will be tested by Texas A & M. The Crimson Tide is favored by nearly two TDs. Roll Tide Roll!
Can BC party like its 1993? The Irish aren't ranked #1, but they are undefeated and favored by 19. GO EAGLES!
K State is favored by 7 over TCU. GO WILDCATS!
Oregon is favored by 28 over Cal. That's just fine. We don't want anyone ahead of Notre Lame in the BCS standings to lose. GO DUCKS!
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If you just look at raw scoring, this game should be no contest. UNL has achieved an average of 29.6 PPG in conference play, while PSU has achieved an average of 33.8 PPG. On defense. UNL has allowed 30.2 PPG average - let's be generous and remove the blowout loss to OSU, then it's only 26.3 PPG (again, all stats in-conference). PSU has allowed 18.6 PPG on average.
On common opponents, both PSU and UNL lost to OSU, but UNL was blown out far worse than PSU was, although that game was played in C-bus, whereas the PSU game was in HV. PSU beat NW more convincingly than UNL did, although both came back from deficits to win.
UNL's biggest to-date win is Michigan, and they've beaten Wisconsin at home. PSU has had lesser competition overall but has played as expected, blowing out Illinois, Iowa, and Purdue. Nebraska's had some squeakers against Wisconsin, NW, and MSU.
UNL will probably look to the Michigan game and point to how good they are, but in reality if Robinson doesn't get injured, you have to wonder if that game wouldn't have been a lot closer. PSU can't really point to much other than the blowout wins over decidedly inferior competition, trying to mount a comeback against OSU, and having a great comeback win over NW (UNL can claim the same, but PSU ultimately beat NW much more convincingly).
I dunno. On one hand, UNL plays well at home, but then again this PSU squad seems to be feasting on the road, OTOH the road games again have been against inferior competition.
This really comes down to a "big game on the road" which is a tough situation to gut out a win. For PSU, this and Wisconsin could be the "signature wins" that label them as a very good team. My thought is that PSU should play this like they played Northwestern. Same thing with a mobile QB and slightly better running game. Defense that on occasion plays better than it normally does. The question in my mind is which UNL team shows up. If they play their best game, it'll be a rough afternoon for PSU. If they make mistakes and PSU capitalizes, it'll be disappointing for UNL.
Here's my take FWIW. The average of UNL PPG scored and PSU PPG allowed (29.6 + 18.6 = 24.1) is 24 points. Michigan allowed UNL 23 points at UNL, and PSU is in the same ballpark statistically, defensively. The average of UNL PPG allowed and PSU PPG scored (26.3 + 33.8 = 30) is 30 points. So the averages say PSU should win by about a TD. The intangibles are UNL at home (big advantage), PSU has faced somewhat inferior competition, while UNL has had some close games and the advantage of Michigan's QB getting knocked out of the game early (wash IMO). Bottom line I think this will be a close football game. If PSU stays true to form they should score at least 28 points, at that point it comes down to the D, can they maintain their form? The most they've allowed all year was 35 points to OSU, and remember 7 of those points were a pick-six, not the D's fault. Northwestern scored 28 on PSU, but then again NW statistically has a better D than Nebraska, and PSU scored 39 on NW.
Worst case, I'm thinking PSU scores 28 while Nebraska is held to 24, which is pretty much in line with the scoring averages above and taking away a couple points from PSU for UNL home field advantage. (Bear in mind also this is being generous and omitting the OSU blowout win from the Nebraska D numbers.) This really comes down to PSU's offense not making mistakes (no picks off McGloin or fumbles) and PSU's D playing at least an average game. I expect this game to be close and PSU's D will have to play a complete game. TOP will be critical, PSU must control the ball so as to keep UNL's offense (and PSU's D) off the field.
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